五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:【资料整理】美国次贷危机时间表 -- 飞扬的心

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家园 【资料整理】美国次贷危机时间表

前记:近半年来,花了好些时间学习经济。谨以此资料整理来总结一下对宏观经济学的认识。

此时间表以wiki上的Subprime crisis impact timeline为骨干,做了一些删减和补充。因时间有限,直接摘录了原文,不好意思。如有任何遗漏、疏忽或错误,请指教,不胜感激。

1929–1989

1929-1940s: 大萧条。保护主义盛行。罗斯福(美国总统,1933年3月4日-1945年4月12日)新政,国家垄断资本主义产生。

1938: The Federal National Mortgage Association, commonly known as Fannie Mae, is established (as part of Franklin Delano Roosevelt's New Deal) to purchase and securitize mortgages in order to ensure that funds are consistently available to the institutions that lend money to home buyers.

1945年7月:布雷顿森林协定签订,美元正式代替英镑的垄断地位。

1950年6月25日-1953年7月27日:朝鲜战争。

1961年5月-1975年4月30日:美国介入越南战争。

1968: Fannie Mae is converted from a federal government entity to a stand-alone government sponsored enterprise (GSE) which purchases and securitizes mortgages to facilitate liquidity in the primary mortgage market. The move takes the debt of Fannie Mae off of the books of the government.

1970: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) is created by an act of Congress, as a government sponsored enterprise, to buy mortgages on the secondary market, pool them, and sell them as mortgage-backed securities to investors on the open market; in 1971 it issues its first Mortgage Participation Certificate security.

1971年8月15日:布雷顿森林协定开始崩溃,“美元灾”显现。

1970s: 严重通货膨胀在美国持续(1981年达到13.5%),出现滞涨。两次石油危机。

1970s: Private companies (especially Salomon Brothers) begin mortgage asset securitization with the creation of private mortgage pools in the 1970s.

1980: The Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act (DIDMCA) of 1980 granted all thrifts, including savings and loan associations, the power to make consumer and commercial loans and to issue transaction accounts and exempted federally chartered savings banks, installment plan sellers and chartered loan companies from state usury (unlimited interest rates) limits.

1981年:所罗门兄弟第一个抛弃华尔街传统--私人合伙公司转变为公众上市公司。

80年代初:美联储主席沃尔克利用“猛药”(联邦基金目标利率1981年6月达到20%)把通货膨胀率压至1983年的3.2%。后果之一是美国大多数的储蓄贷款银行(savings and loans)资不抵债。

1980s: “里根经济”时代,开始大规模的私有化、消除管制和减税。

1982: Alternative Mortgage Transaction Parity Act of 1982 (AMTPA) allows lenders to originate mortgages with features such as adjustable-rate mortgages, balloon payments, and negative amortization and "allows lenders to make loans with terms that may obscure the total cost of a loan".

1986: Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA) prohibits taxpayers from deducting interest on consumer loans, such as credit cards and auto loans, while allowing them to deduct interest paid on mortgage loans, providing an incentive for homeowners to take out home equity loans to pay off consumer debt. Household debt would grow from $705 billion at year end 1974, 60% of disposable personal income, to $7.4 trillion at year end 2000, and finally to $14.5 trillion in midyear 2008, 134% of disposable personal income.

1985–1989: The effects of Tax Reform Act of 1986, the elimination of Regulation Q which had capped interest rates banks were allowed to pay, imprudent lending during the late 1970s inflationary period, as well as other causes, led to asset-liability mismatch for many Savings and Loans. This defacto insolvency led to the Savings and Loan Crisis and the failure and/or closure of half of all federally insured savings and loans. The number declined from 3,234 to 1,645.

1987-2006: “格林斯潘神话”,强美元,低通胀。

1989-1995: Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act ("FIRREA") established the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) which closed hundreds of insolvent savings and loans holding $519 billion in assets and moved regulatory authority to the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS). The U.S. government ultimately appropriated 105 billion dollars to resolve the crisis. After banks repaid loans through various procedures, there was a net loss to taxpayers of 40 billion dollars by the end of 1999.

1990 - 2000

1991年底:苏联解体,冷战结束。

1992: Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992 required Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to devote a percentage of their lending to support affordable housing increasing their pooling and selling of such loans as securities; Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) created to oversee them.

1993: The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston published "Closing the Gap: A Guide to Equal Opportunity Lending" which recommended a series of measures to better serve low-income and minority households, including loosening income thresholds for receiving a mortgage, influencing government policy and housing activist demands on banks thereafter.

1995: New Community Reinvestment Act regulations break down home-loan data by neighborhood, income, and race, enabling community groups to complain to banks and regulators about CRA compliance. Regulations also allows community groups that market loans to collect a broker's fee. Fannie Mae allowed to receive affordable housing credit for buying subprime securities.

1995–2001: Dot-com bubble and collapse

1997: Mortgage denial rate of 29 percent for conventional home purchase loans. Investors purchased more than $60 billion of subprime mortgage backed securities, six times more than 1991’s volume of $10 billion. (private label securities, not GSE backed)

July: The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 expanded the capital-gains exclusion to $500,000 (per couple) from $125,000, encouraging people to invest in second homes and investment properties.

November: Freddie Mac helped First Union Capital Markets and Bear Stearns & Co launch the first publicly available securitization of CRA loans, issuing $384.6 million of such securities. All carried a Freddie Mac guarantee as to timely interest and principal.

1998: Incipient housing bubble as inflation-adjusted home price appreciation exceeds 10% per year in most West Coast metropolitan areas.

October: "Financial Services Modernization Act" killed in Senate because of no restrictions on Community Reinvestment Act-related community groups written into law.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York rescues Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund in 1998, which a Government Accountability Office critic said encouraged risky loans on assumption government will bail out "too big to fail" banks and companies.

1998年4月6日:花旗集团成立。美国金融业进入金融集团时代。(虽然格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案还在。)

1999年1月1日:欧元诞生。

September 1999: Fannie Mae eases the credit requirements to encourage banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is not good enough to qualify for conventional loans.

November 1999: Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act "Financial Services Modernization Act" repeals Glass-Steagall Act, deregulates banking, insurance and securities into a financial services industry allow financial institutions to grow very large.

2000: Lenders originating $160 billion worth of subprime, up from $40 billion in 1994. Fannie Mae buys $600 million of subprime mortgages, primarily on a flow basis. Freddie Mac, in that same year, purchases $18.6 billion worth of subprime loans, mostly Alt A and A- mortgages. Freddie Mac guarantees another $7.7 billion worth of subprime mortgages in structured transactions.

October: Fannie Mae commits to purchase and securitize $2 billion of Community Reinvestment Act eligible loans.

November: Fannie Mae announces that the Department of Housing and Urban Development (“HUD”) will soon require it to dedicate 50% of its business to low- and moderate-income families" and its goal is to finance over $500 billion in Community Reinvestment Act related business by 2010.

December: Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 defines interest rates, currency prices, and stock indexes as "excluded commodities", allowing trade of credit-default swaps by hedge funds, investment banks or insurance companies with minimal oversight.

家园 2001年以来

2001-2006

2000–2003: Early 2000s recession spurs government action to rev up economy.

2000-2001: US Federal Reserve lowers Federal funds rate 11 times, from 6.5% (May 2000) to 1.75% (December 2001), creating an easy-credit environment that fueled the growth of US subprime mortgages.

2001年10月7日-至今:阿富汗战争。

2002年:美国大公司假帐丑闻大规模爆发。

2002-2006: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac combined purchases of incorrectly rated AAA subprime mortgage-backed securities rise from $38 billion to $90 billion per year.

Lenders began to offer loans to higher-risk borrowers, including illegal immigrants. Subprime mortgages amounted to $600 billion (20%) by 2006.

Speculation in residential real estate rose. During 2005, 28% of homes purchased were for investment purposes, with an additional 12% purchased as vacation homes. During 2006, these figures were 22% and 14%, respectively. As many as 85% of condominium properties purchased in Miami were for investment purposes which the owners resold ("flipped") without the seller ever having lived in them.

2002–2003: Mortgage denial rate of 14 percent for conventional home purchase loans, half of 1997.

2002: Annual home price appreciation of 10% or more in California, Florida, and most Northeastern states.

June 17:President G.W. Bush sets goal of increasing minority home owners by at least 5.5 million by 2010 through billions of dollars in tax credits, subsidies and a Fannie Mae commitment of $440 billion to establish NeighborWorks America with faith based organizations.

2003年3月20日-至今:伊拉克战争。

June 25 2003: FED lowers federal funds rate to 1%, the lowest in 45 years, and this rate is kept for one year (until June 30 2004).

2003-2007: U.S. subprime mortgages increased 292%, from $332 billion to $1.3 trillion, due primarily to the private sector entering the mortgage bond market, once an almost exclusive domain of government sponsored enterprises like Freddie Mac.

The Federal Reserve fails to use its supervisory and regulatory authority over banks, mortgage underwriters and other lenders, who abandoned loan standards (employment history, income, down payments, credit rating, assets, property loan-to-value ratio and debt-servicing ability), emphasizing instead lender's ability to securitize and repackage subprime loans.

2004-2007: Many financial institutions issued large amounts of debt and invested in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), believing that house prices would continue to rise and that households would keep up on mortgage payments.

2004: U.S. homeownership rate peaks with an all time high of 69.2 percent.

Following example of Countrywide Financial, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, many lenders adopt automated loan approvals that critics argued were not subjected to appropriate review and documentation according to good mortgage underwriting standards. In 2007, 40% of all subprime loans resulted from automated underwriting. Mortgage fraud by borrowers increases.

HUD ratcheted up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac affordable-housing goals for next four years, from 50 percent to 56 percent, stating they lagged behind the private market; they purchased $175 billion in 2004—44 percent of the market; from 2004 to 2006, they purchased $434 billion in securities backed by subprime loans.

October 2004: SEC effectively suspends net capital rule for five firms—Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley. Freed from government imposed limits on the debt they can assume, they levered up 20, 30 and even 40 to 1, buying massive amounts of mortgage-backed securities and other risky investments.

January 2005: Federal Reserve Governor Edward Gramlich raises concerns over subprime lending practices, says mortgage brokers might not have incentives for careful underwriting and that that portion of the subprime industry was veering close to a breakdown, that it's possible that it is a bubble but that the housing market did not qualify for specific monetary policy treatment at this point.

Fall 2005: Booming housing market halts abruptly; from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2006, median prices nationwide drop 3.3 percent.

August 2006: U.S. Home Construction Index is down over 40% as of mid-August 2006 compared to a year earlier.

2006年12月-2008年10月:中国的“负利率”时代,期间6次加息(全在2007年,2.79%-4.14%)

2007

Home sales continue to fall. The plunge in existing-home sales is the steepest since 1989. In Q1/2007, S&P/Case-Shiller house price index records first year-over-year decline in nationwide house prices since 1991. The subprime mortgage industry collapses, and a surge of foreclosure activity (twice as bad as 2006) and rising interest rates threaten to depress prices further as problems in the subprime markets spread to the near-prime and prime mortgage markets.

February–March: Subprime industry collapse; several subprime lenders declaring bankruptcy, announcing significant losses, or putting themselves up for sale. These include Accredited Home Lenders Holding, New Century Financial, DR Horton and Countrywide Financial.

1月18日:纽约商品交易所西得克萨斯原油期货价格报收50.48美元/桶,跌至1年半以来的最低点。

March 6: In a speech before the Independent Community Bankers of America's Annual Convention and Techworld, Honolulu, Hawaii, Ben Bernanke, quoting Alan Greenspan, warns that the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were a source of "systemic risk" and suggest legislation to head off a possible crisis.

April 2: New Century Financial, largest U.S. subprime lender, files for chapter 11 bankruptcy.

June 7: Bear Stearns & Co informs investors in two of its funds, the High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund and the High-Grade Structured Credit Fund that it was halting redemptions.

June 14–22: Rumors surface that two Bear Stearns-managed hedge funds invested in securities backed by subprime mortgage loans have incurred heavy losses and that $3.8 billion worth of bonds are up for sale to finance margin calls. News reports eventually confirm that one of the funds is kept open through a loan injection, while the other is to be liquidated.

June 20: Merrill Lynch seized $800 million in assets from two Bear Stearns hedge funds that were involved in securities backed by subprime loans.

6月29日:美元兑日元汇率报收本年度最高点123.14日元/美元,为4年来新高。

July 19: Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 14,000 for the first time in its history.

2007年7月:中国股市泡沫膨胀。

家园 世界信用紧缩以来

Worldwide "credit crunch"

August 6 2007: American Home Mortgage, one of the largest U.S. independent home loan providers, files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

August 9: Short-term credit markets froze up after BNP Paribas freezes redemptions for three investment funds, citing an inability to value them in the current environment because the market had disappeared. The bank's announcement is the first of many credit-loss and write-down announcements by banks, mortgage lenders and other institutional investors.

August 9: the ECB injects 95 billion of overnight liquidity into the interbank market, marking the beginning of a set of extraordinary moves by the central bank community.

August 10: the European Central Bank provided an extra 61 billion euros of funds for banks. The Federal Reserve conducts three extraordinary auctions of overnight funds, injecting a total of $38 billion, and issues a statement similar to that of the ECB.

August 13: the European Central Bank pumped 47.7 billion euros into the money markets, its third cash injection. Goldman Sachs said it would pump 3 billion dollars into a hedge fund hit by the credit crunch to shore up its value.

August 16: Countrywide Financial Corporation, the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, narrowly avoids bankruptcy by taking out an emergency loan of $11 billion from a group of banks.

August 17: the Federal Reserve cuts the discount rate by half a percent to 5.75% from 6.25% while leaving the federal funds rate unchanged in an attempt to stabilize financial markets. (Note: the federal funds rate is 5.25% from June 29 2006 to September 18 2007.)

September 1–3: Fed Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY addressed the housing recession that jeopardizes U.S. growth. Several critics argue that the Fed should use regulation and interest rates to prevent asset-price bubbles, blamed former Fed-chairman Alan Greenspan's low interest rate policies for stoking the U.S. housing boom and subsequent bust, and Yale University economist Robert Shiller warned of possible home price declines of fifty percent.

September 4: The Libor rate rises to its highest level since December 1998, at 6.7975%, above the Bank of England's 5.75% base rate.

September 7: US Labor Department announces that non-farm payrolls fell by 4,000 in August 2007, the first month of negative job growth since August 2003, due in large part to problems in the housing and credit markets.

9月13日: 西得克萨斯原油期货收盘价首次突破80美元/桶,创历史新高。

September 13–17: Northern Rock, the largest British mortgage banker, runs into liquidity problems, which eventually trigger a bank run (for the first time in Britain in a hundred years) and the announcement of a deposit guarantee by the UK Treasury.

September 17: Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said "we had a bubble in housing" and warns of "large double digit declines" in home values "larger than most people expect."

September 18: The Fed lowers interest rates by half a point (0.5%) in an attempt to limit damage to the economy from the housing and credit crises.

September 18 – November 4: Repeated writedowns and quarterly losses are reported by major financial institutions. A number of high-profile CEOs leave their positions amid top management reorganizations.

October 5: Merrill Lynch announces a US$5.5 billion loss as a consequence of the subprime crisis, which is revised to $8.4 billion on October 24, a sum that Standard & Poor's called "startling".

10月9日:美国道琼斯和标普股指分别报收于14,165点和1,565点的历史最高点。

10月16日:上证指数创最高点6124.04点。

October 15–17: A consortium of U.S. banks backed by the U.S. government announces a "super fund" of $100 billion to purchase mortgage-backed securities whose mark-to-market value plummeted in the subprime collapse. Both Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson express alarm about the dangers posed by the bursting housing bubble; Paulson says "the housing decline is still unfolding and I view it as the most significant risk to our economy. … The longer housing prices remain stagnant or fall, the greater the penalty to our future economic growth."

October 31: Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%.

11月8日:英镑兑美元汇率报收26年来新高2.1076美元/英镑。

December 19: ACA, a financial guarantor rated A, is downgraded by S&P to CCC, triggering collateral calls from its counterparties for which repeated waiver periods are negotiated during the following months. S&P’s rating outlooks for other monolines are lowered from stable to negative.

December 24: A consortium of banks officially abandons the U.S. government-supported "super-SIV" mortgage crisis bail-out plan announced in mid-October, citing a lack of demand for the risky mortgage products on which the plan was based, and widespread criticism that the fund was a flawed idea that would have been difficult to execute.

2008

January 2–4: Weak purchasing managers’ data and labor market reports point to a marked weakening in the US economy and trigger fears about global growth.

January 15: Citigroup announces a fourth quarter loss, partly due to $18 billion of additional writedowns on mortgage-related exposures, starting another string of similar news from other financial institutions.

January 2–21: January 2008 stock market downturn.

January 21-30: The Federal Reserve delivers a 75 basis point inter-meeting rate cut, following broad-based global equity and credit market weakness. The policy rate is lowered by another 50 basis points in the following week.

January 24: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) announces that 2007 had the largest drop in existing home sales in 25 years, and "the first price decline in many, many years and possibly going back to the Great Depression."

2月14日:美国总统布什签署了一项为期两年、总额达1680亿美元的经济刺激方案,拟通过大幅退税刺激消费和投资。

2月18日:英国宣布将北岩银行国有化。

3 月5日:温总政府报告中指出,2008年要实行稳健的财政政策和从紧的货币政策。2008年经济工作要把防止经济增长由偏快转为过热、防止价格由结构性上涨演变为明显通货膨胀作为宏观调控的首要任务(即“两防”)。(已于2007年11月19日温总在新加坡国立大学发表演讲前后定调。)

3月12日:芝加哥期货交易所的小麦期货价格报收于1245美分/蒲式耳的历史新高。

3月14日:美元兑日元汇率12年来首次跌破100日元/美元大关。

March 14-17: Bear Stearns' shares plummet. Failure to roll over repo funds causes an acute liquidity shortage at Bear Stearns, emergency discount window borrowing and a subsequent takeover by JPMorgan.

March 16: Bear Stearns is acquired for $2 a share by JPMorgan Chase in a fire sale avoiding bankruptcy. The deal is backed by the Federal Reserve, providing up to $30B to cover possible Bear Stearn losses.

3月17日:伦敦黄金价格突破1000美元大关,创历史新高。

4月7日:伦敦金属交易所期铜价格报收于8730美元/吨的历史最高点。

4月22日:欧元兑美元汇率报收于历史最高点1.5987美元/欧元。

6月7日:中国人民银行上调存款准备金率至17.5%,16.5%(5月12日),16%(4月16日),15.5%(3月18日),15%(1月16日),14.5%(07年12月8日)。

6月26日:芝加哥期货交易所的玉米期货价格报收于788美分/蒲式耳的历史新高。

7月3日:西得克萨斯原油与布伦特原油期货价格分别报收于145.2美元/桶和146.1美元/桶的历史最高点。芝加哥期货交易所的大豆期货价格报收于1637美分/蒲式耳的历史新高。

7月11日:伦敦金属交易所期铝价格报收于3317美元/吨的历史最高点。

July 11: Indymac Bank, a subsidiary of Independent National Mortgage Corporation (Indymac), is placed into the receivership of the FDIC. It was the fourth-largest bank failure in United States history, and the second-largest failure of a regulated thrift.

July 13: The US authorities announce plans for backstop measures supporting two US mortgage finance agencies (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), including purchases of agency stock.

July 15: The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issues an order restricting “naked short selling”.

July 17: Major banks and financial institutions had borrowed and invested heavily in mortgage backed securities and reported losses of approximately $435 billion as of 17 July 2008.

7月25日:将“两防”调整为“一保一控”,即把保持经济平稳较快发展、控制物价过快上涨作为宏观调控的首要任务,把抑制通货膨胀放在突出位置。

July 30: President Bush signs into law the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, which authorizes the Federal Housing Administration to guarantee up to $300 billion in new 30-year fixed rate mortgages for subprime borrowers if lenders write-down principal loan balances to 90 percent of current appraisal value.

家园 2008年9月以来

September 7 2008: Federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which at that point owned or guaranteed about half of the U.S.'s $12 trillion mortgage market, effectively nationalizing them. This causes panic because almost every home mortgage lender and Wall Street bank relied on them to facilitate the mortgage market and investors worldwide owned $5.2 trillion of debt securities backed by them.

September 14: Merrill Lynch is sold to Bank of America amidst fears of a liquidity crisis and Lehman Brothers collapse.

September 15: Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy protection.

September 16: Moody's and Standard and Poor's downgrade ratings on AIG's credit on concerns over continuing losses to mortgage-backed securities, sending the company into fears of insolvency.

September 16: Reserve Primary, a large US money market fund, “breaks the buck”, triggering "bank run" on the money market mutual funds. The TED spread, an indicator of perceived credit risk in the general economy, spiked up in July 2007, remained volatile for a year, then spiked even higher in September 2008, reaching a record 4.65% on October 10, 2008.

September 17: The US Federal Reserve lends $85 billion to American International Group (AIG) to avoid bankruptcy.

September 18: Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke meet with key legislators to propose a $700 billion emergency bailout through the purchase of toxic assets. Bernanke tells them: "If we don't do this, we may not have an economy on Monday."

September 18: Coordinated central bank measures address the squeeze in US dollar funding with $160 billion in new or expanded swap lines; the UK authorities prohibit short selling of financial shares.

September 19: The US Treasury announces a temporary guarantee of money market funds; the SEC announces a ban on short sales in financial shares; early details emerge of a $700 billion US Treasury proposal to remove troubled assets from bank balance sheets (the Troubled Asset Relief Program, TARP).

September 21: The two remaining US investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with the approval of the Federal Reserve, converted to bank holding companies.

9月23日:汇金公司“自主”购入工商银行、中国银行、建设银行三家银行股票,稳定国有商业银行股价。

September 25: The authorities take control of Washington Mutual, the largest US thrift institution, with some $300 billion in assets, and its banking assets are sold to JP MorganChase for $1.9 billion.

September 28: Fortis, a huge Benelux banking and finance company was partially nationalized, with Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg investing a total of 11.2 billion (US$16.3 billion) in the bank.

September 29: UK mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley is nationalized; German commercial property lender Hypo Real Estate secures a government-facilitated credit line; troubled US bank Wachovia is taken over; the proposed TARP is rejected by the US House of Representatives.

September 30: US Treasury changes tax law to allow a bank acquiring another to write off all of the acquired bank's losses for tax purposes.

September 30: Financial group Dexia receives a government capital injection; the Irish government announces a guarantee safeguarding all deposits, covered bonds and senior and subordinated debt of six Irish banks; other governments take similar initiatives over the following weeks.

October 1: The U.S. Senate passes HR1424, their version of the $700 billion bailout bill.

October 3: President George W. Bush signs the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, creating a $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program to purchase failing bank assets. It contains also easing of the accounting rules that forced companies to collapse because of the existence of toxic mortgage-related investments. Also key to winning GOP support was a decision by the Securities and Exchange Commission to ease mark-to-market accounting rules that require financial institutions to show the deflated value of assets on their balance sheets.

October 3: Using tax law change made September 30, Wells makes a higher offer for Wachovia, scooping it from Citigroup.

October 6: Fed announces that it will provide $900 billion in short-term cash loans to banks.

October 7: Fed makes emergency move to lend around $1.3 trillion directly to companies outside the financial sector.

October 7: The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) relaxes rules on US corporations repatriating money held oversees in an attempt to inject liquidity into the US financial market. The new ruling allows the companies to receive loans from their foreign subsidiaries for longer periods and more times a year without triggering the 35% corporate income tax.

October 8: Central banks in USA (Fed), England, China, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland and the European Central Bank cut rates in a coordinated effort to aid world economy. The UK authorities announce a comprehensive support package, including capital injections for UK-incorporated banks.

October 8: Fed also reduces its emergency lending rate to banks by half a percentage point, to 1.75 percent.

October 8: White House considers taking ownership stakes in private banks as a part of the bailout bill. Warren Buffett and George Soros criticized the original approach of the bailout bill.

October 6-10: The Dow Jones Industrial Average caps its worst week ever with its highest volatility day ever recorded in its 112 year history. The Dow Jones loses 22.1 percent amid worries of worsening credit crisis and global recession, down 40.3 percent since reaching a record high of 14,164.53 October 9, 2007. The Standard & Poor's 500 index loses 18.2 percent, its worst week since 1933, down 42.5 percent in since its own high October 9, 2007.

October 11: The G7, a group of central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading economies, meet in Washington and agree to urgent and exceptional coordinated action to prevent the credit crisis from throwing the world into depression. The G7 did not agree on the concrete plan that was hoped for.

October 13: Major central banks jointly announce the provision of unlimited amounts of US dollar funds to ease tensions in money markets; euro area governments pledge system-wide bank recapitalizations; reports say that the US Treasury plans to invest $125 billion to buy stakes in nine major banks.

October 14: The US taps into the $700 billion available from the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act and announces the injection of $250 billion of public money into the US banking system. The form of the rescue will include the US government taking an equity position in banks that choose to participate in the program in exchange for certain restrictions such as executive compensation. Nine banks agreed to participate in the program and will receive half of the total funds: 1) Bank of America, 2) JPMorgan Chase, 3) Wells Fargo, 4) Citigroup, 5) Merrill Lynch, 6) Goldman Sachs, 7) Morgan Stanley, 8) Bank of New York Mellon and 9) State Street. Other US financial institutions eligible for the plan have until November 14 to agree to the terms.

October 21: The US Federal Reserve announces that it will spend $540 billion to purchase short-term debt from money market mutual funds. The large amount of redemption requests during the credit crisis have caused the money market funds to scale back lending to banks contributing to the credit freeze on interbank lending markets. This government is hoping the injection will help unfreeze the credit markets making it easier for businesses and banks to obtain loans. The structure of the plan involves the Fed setting up four special purpose vehicles that will purchase the assets.

10月24日:胡主席在亚欧首脑会议开幕式上强调要把国内的事情办好,着力扩大国内需求特别是消费需求,保持经济稳定、金融稳定、资本市场稳定,继续推动经济社会又好又快发展。

October 28: Hungary secures a $25 billion support package from the IMF and other multilateral institutions aimed at stemming growing capital outflows and easing related currency pressures.

10月28日:上证指数创下低点,1665点。

家园 2008年11月以来

2008年11月5日:国务院推出“四万亿”计划。

November 12: Treasury Secretary Paulson abandons plan to buy toxic assets under the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Mr. Paulson said the remaining $410 billion in the fund would be better spent on recapitalizing financial companies.

November 15: The group of 20 of the world’s largest economies meets in Washington DC and releases a statement of the meeting. Although no detailed plans were agreed upon, the meeting focused on implementing policies consistent with five principles: strengthening transparency and accountability, improving regulation, promoting market integrity, reinforcing cooperation and reforming international institutions.

November 17: The Treasury gives out $33.6 billion to 21 banks in the second round of disbursements from the $700 billion bailout fund. This payout brings the total to $158.56 billion so far.

November 24: The US government agrees to rescue Citigroup after an attack by investors causes the stock price to plummet 60% over the last week under a detailed plan that including injecting another $20 billion of capital into Citigroup bringing the total infusion to $45 billion.

November 25: The US Federal Reserve creates a $200 billion facility to extend loans against securitizations backed by consumer and small business loans.

November 25: The Federal Reserve announces that it would purchase up to $100 billion of agency debt, and up to $500 billion of agency MBS. (“量化宽松”政策浮出水面。)

11月26日:中国人民银行大幅下调存贷款基准利率各1.08个百分点。同时首次下调存款准备金率(大银行下调1%,中小型下调2%)。

December 1: The National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared that the U.S. economy had entered recession in December 2007, a full year earlier.

12月4日:欧洲多家中央银行再度联手展开降息行动。瑞典央行将主导利率由原先的3.75%降至2%;英格兰银行降息1个百分点至2%;欧央行将欧元区主导利率由3.25%降至2.5%,为有史以来最大降息幅度。这是欧洲多家央行在短短两个月时间里展开的第三次联合降息行动。

December 16: Federal Reserve sets the range of the federal funds rate to be 0~0.25%.

12月17日:美元兑日元汇率触及13年来最低点87.31日元/美元。

备注:中国经济在07年到了周期回落的时期(2季度达到峰值)。

中国GDP(季度,同比):10.6(08年1季度),10.1,9.0,6.8,6.1(09年1季度,无刺激计划则1%左右),7.1。

中国出口(季度,同比):21.4(08年1季度),22.4,22.9,4.3,-19.7(2009年1季度)。

进出口总额在09年有20-25%的下滑,10年也会如此。

CPI和PPI拐点在2008年6月份(后直线下降)。

2009

January 16: The Irish authorities seize control of Anglo Irish Bank; replicating an approach taken in the case of Citigroup in November, the US authorities agree to support Bank of America through a preferred equity stake and guarantees for a pool of troubled assets.

January 19: British banking shares collapsed in a rout of selling after Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) announced the biggest corporate losses (28 billion loss for 2008) in British history. The shares fell over 67% in a single day. As part of a broad-based financial rescue package, the UK authorities increase their existing stake in Royal Bank of Scotland. Similar measures by other national authorities follow over the next few days.

February 10: The US authorities present plans for new comprehensive measures in support of the financial sector, including a Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) of up to $1 trillion to purchase troubled assets.

February 10: G7 Finance Ministers and central bank Governors reaffirm their commitment to use the full range of policy tools to support growth and employment and strengthen the financial sector.

March 5: The Bank of England launches a program, worth about $100 billion, aimed at outright purchases of private sector assets and government bonds over a three-month period.

March 9: the Dow falls to 6440, a percentage decline exceeding the pace of the market's fall during the Great Depression and a level which the index had last seen in 1996.

March 18: The Federal Reserve announces plans for purchases of up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over a period of six months. Moreover, the Federal Reserve raises its intended purchases of agency debt to $200 billion (a $100 billion increase) and its intended purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities to $1.25 trillion (a $750 billion increase) by the end of the year.

March 23: The US Treasury provides details on the PPIP proposed in February.

April 2: The communiqué issued at the G20 summit pledges joint efforts by governments to restore confidence and growth, including measures to strengthen the financial system.

April 6: The US Federal Open Market Committee authorizes new temporary reciprocal foreign currency liquidity swap lines with the Bank of England, ECB, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank.

April 24: The US Federal Reserve releases details on the stress tests conducted to assess the financial soundness of the 19 largest US financial institutions, declaring that most banks currently have capital levels well in excess of the amount required for them to remain well capitalised.

May 7: The ECB’s Governing Council decides in principle that the ECB will purchase euro-denominated covered bonds; the US authorities publish the results of their stress tests and identify 10 banks with an overall capital shortfall of $75 billion, to be covered chiefly through additions to common equity.

June 22: the World Bank projected that the global production for 2009 would fall by 2.9%, the first decline since the second world war.

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