主题：del -- MRandson

难道只有失去的只有锁链这条路了？

那不就是清盘了? 推倒重来？

所谓救急不救穷。

一开始俺也对安大的文章不以为然，觉得是在危言耸听杞人忧天

还因为上海海事大学那个女研究生自杀事件现身说法想否定安大的看法

不过亲身见证了自09年末到目前为止斯坦尼斯拉夫斯基同志的精湛演技俺才发现安大不是危言耸听而是悲天悯人、先天下之忧而忧，俺现在看安大的卢瑟经济学，已经彻底服了。

安大才是这个社会真正的精英和栋梁的代表。

when I was back to Shanghai. I notice that there has been little difference in terms of food price between Shanghai and second-tier east-coast US cities. I mean processed food or restaurant food. Raw material, such as rice, was still cheaper then in China due to strict gov. control.

But service is still much more expensive in US than in China.

Hyper inflation is going to change that soon.

Global convergence of goods price has been reached since there is almost perfect free movement of goods and very low transaction costs between the U.S. and China.

But global salary divergence persists because there is no free movement of labor at all between the U.S. and China.

就是用暴力打破系统，甚至不惜用大规模杀伤性武器扯平北半球。猿首同学当年想这么做来着的，不过没成功。按照您的说法就是，马太定律反正是普遍存在的，因此与其幻想乌托邦，不如尽力成为定律中的“有”者。当然对屁民来说，少就少罢。

when Obama talks about rebalancing, tell him to open up the US border. After quater of a billion Chinese have moved across the Pacific, rebalancing will be done.

资本主义的语境下，进攻和滚利是好的，是善良的，是有效的，“它就是人类进化的精髓”。一旦想到应对，那就是防守，是不好的，当然短期防守防守无所谓，长期防守必有大败。唯一的办法就是使用一切合法的、灰色的和不合法的手段，让自己从中产阶级升到温拿阶级。香港一批人借着鸦片起家，那可是踏着同胞的尸骨前进，嘿嘿。没有那份意志？没有那份能力？想要小富即安？想要老婆孩子热炕头然后做好梦？行啊，您就是给剥削的命，等着这轮剥削之后然后国家安抚一下，几十年后再被剥削罢！

闯啊！钻尖脑袋往温拿堆里头钻啊，当然比较稳妥的办法安德森已经说了，就是出国。如果不能出国也不敢钻，那就是。。。哥，你懂的。

richest and smartest Chinese, you will still not be able to rebalance so long as there is the green card selection process.

Nobody will be stupid enough to give up border control and absorb the poor group from another country. But on the other side, America is very cunning in that its border is very open to rich people from any country.

here's the point. Obama is asking China to do something for the US that only the most naive in China would do. Now if the Americans accept `rebalancing' as necessary, then any ligitimate measure to eliminate the cause of this great imbalance should be discussed and considered.

The question is of course, what kind of measure is ligitimate and what's not. Given that all human are created equal and freedom is the single most important value, I should argue that the rebalancing of sino-US population is not only ligitmate but also the right path to follow. A great and responsible country like the United States must not violate the born human right of anyone seeking a better life under the excuse of border control, which in itself is expensive, ineffective and unnecessary...

We all know free market is good and one generally shouldn't fear competition on a level ground. Once 300 million Chinese immigrants are in the states, a new level ground will be created in both countries. America will have enough hardworking workers to promote manufactoring in the US. China on the other hand, will have more incentive to attract workers with better living standards, hence consume more.

I can go on with the benefits of population rebalancing. But I guess you've already seen the point. Of course neither Obama or the Congress will buy this. But why should China and the rest of the world buy their argument? Which is equally very thin on operatability and popularity. It's not about actually addressing the imbalance, but simply a way of fighting a propaganda war.

Agree. No need to rebalance the trade in a short period of time, but the U.S. will not be able to absorb more overcapacity in China and China is holding lots of greenbacks in the form of treasury notes. If the current situation continues through the next 10 years, American default is inevitable and China does not benefit any more under the current system. When overcapacity has no end consumers, China will experience what America did in 1929.

What I am proposing is that China SHOULD THINK ABOUT changing the current global financial system. Elites SHOULD THINK LONG TERM FOR THE NATION AND WORLD. Childish complaint does not fix problems.

Either China and the whole world can switch to gold-based system so that trade deficit could not continue forever for one nation or we add something like SDR so that domestic monetary policies will be separate from global financial payments, thus Fed can not damage other nations while it stimulates its own economy (and trade deficit can still accumulate). In the meantime, China should seriously consider domestic FDR -styled reform so that domestic Chinese can really enjoy the MATERIAL benefits from economic growth rather than just accumulate more useless paper money.

I was back in Shanghai in 2008. I have to admit that most average Joes did not benefit from last 10year's golden age in China at all.

WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT practical solutions--finger pointing will not solve the dilemma.

I never take Obama seriously. He is a puppet for sure. He is just doing what his masters are asking him to do. I like Republicans more than Demos. Demos are too hypocritical.

My worry is that currency war might lead to trade war, trade war brings everybody into big deep depression and then we will see new dictators and nationalism.

In the end, we will see deja vu of 1930s and WWII and final destruction of this earth for every human being.

Do not assume the history does not repeat itself. To be frank, ever since the world switches to Bretton Wood II in 1973, the financial system became more and more unstable for the world (frequency of financial crisis).

The 2007 crisis is somewhat the deja vu of 1980s' S&L crisis. The pity is that most Americans already had vague memory of that crisis.

路线太长，关键变量很多。推恩令难道出现在恶性通胀中？多米诺骨牌谁来推呢？

您说得很好，但是前提错误

现在央行和政府无权增发人民币，这是银行法的规定，人民币增发的唯一渠道变成了依据外汇储备。对此有怀疑的，请仔细看央行货币政策委员会委员周其仁的文章，参见： http://zhouqiren.org/archives/979.html 。 周其仁称银行法（94年人大通过）为一项意义深远的制度安排，是关闭了政府主动超发货币之门。参见：货币超发43万亿的根源是荒谬的货币增发机制 http://www.ccthere.com/article/3166869

提高外汇储备，就会增发货币，这实际上表明，财富在国内，政府不能增发货币，财富出口换来外汇，国内减少了财富，央行反而依据外汇储备增加，增发货币。为什么会变成如此荒谬？其原因是，在人们观念里，美元就代表财富。虽然美元在上个世纪八十年代，曾在不到十年，贬值二十多倍，从71年8月35美元兑换1盎司黄金，到80年变成850美元兑换1盎司黄金。美元早就不是当初的美元了。

经济学界应该有所反思，周可能就是认识到此问题的经济学家之一，现在央行正在推行周主张的汇率市场化，让民间持有外汇，从而改变目前的央行增发货币，购买外汇的做法。这种做法是欧美流行的做法，但是，它们本身就是经济联合体，而苏联解体之前，西方国家绝不会让老百姓大量持有苏联货币。这种做法会带来更大问题。民间持有外汇，和政府持有外汇，都被他国征收货币税。现在这种荒谬增发机制都实行了16年，一旦外汇民间化，汇率市场化成为一项制度安排，必然导致其错误更难纠正。参见：周其仁的汇率市场化改革，让美帝在中国合法收税 http://www.ccthere.com/article/3169397

增发货币并不一定导致物价上涨，因为现在增发货币基本都到了资本家手里，资本家并不会增加多少消费，从而导致物价上涨，如果商品都过剩，资本家也难以炒作。现在食品轮番涨价，主因是国内食品生产不足，进口比重已经达到20%。但是，其他商品生产是过剩的。有个帖子分析了粮食生产不足及其原因，参见：http://www.ccthere.com/article/3166869

在大部分经济问题上，我都非常赞同您的观点，但是，在物价上涨原因上，我的观点，物价上涨与低人民币汇率下高价进口有关（不是与出口相关），我给出了具体数据（使物价上涨50%），欢迎您讨论。具体分析见：http://www.ccthere.com/article/3174678 。

至于银行坏账问题，财政赤字问题，现在都不是用增发货币来解决的。为了解决财政赤字问题，政府增加收税和其他增收措施，如提高土地价格等，电价，水价涨价等。银行坏账是拿外汇做资本，来扣除坏账。这些问题的根源是老百姓低收入。没有消费者购买力提高，投资和商品房建设都没有市场，最后都是坏账。2年前就写过帖子，讨论过银行问题。参见：我国银行引进外资的原因、后果与解决方法 http://www.caogen.com/blog/infor_detail.aspx?id=227&articleId=12574

可以说，政府应对危机的策略都是错误的，都是在拼命增收，补贴资本家（如增加出口补贴,2008年补贴5000亿，2009年补贴6500亿，增加补贴1500亿），防止资本家工厂倒闭，其结果是劳动者购买力进一步下降了，国内生产过剩进一步增加，这导致了经济更大的泡沫，虽然在这些对策下，经济泡沫还没有破，但是，会有一天经济破灭的。参见：经济已危如累卵，对策却错误百出 http://www.caogen.com/blog/infor_detail.aspx?id=227&articleId=12614 这是2年前的帖子，但是，现在指导政府措施的指导思想并没有变，所采取的对策，与2年前并没有多少变化，还是从老百姓手里淘钱，补贴资本家。