五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:大前研一声称中国房地产现状是8000万套空房用于投机 -- PBS

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家园 还是有机会将这个走向拉美化的趋势扳回来的

工作量是极其巨大的,要细致地下功夫,在每个层次方面都要有规划---不就是那些细节嘛,不要差不多主义就可以了。

借用一句口号:

Uinted ordinary people can still do extraordinary things in the world。

中国人的思维方式,语言文字和教育系统必须为这个去拉美化过程配套。

家园 where is the incentive??

No incentive, no action.

FDR reformed USA into a more fair society because the political/financial elites realized that their old approach was bankrupt and they had to follow FDR to restructure America under the "New Deal".

Otherwise, a revolution would eliminate them all.

In China, there is litte fear among the elites. They still believe that their tanks/guns will help them forever, just like they did in 1989.

In sum, I do not see any well-organized interests group there with such an incentive to prevent China from its current path. In China's history there are only three periods: brutal exploitation by the haves and then brutal revolution to get rid of those haves under the old dynasty; in the middle you will have several decades of peace and prosperity.

Over all, it is a country that can only revolve, but not evolve. In the 20th century when it evolved, it was due to the pressure from the external world.

家园 因为今年高利贷需求降低了啊
家园 不用外部压力,而是内部压力就可以导致问题

Over all, it is a country that can only revolve, but not evolve. In the 20th century when it evolved, it was due to the pressure from the external world.

因为目前中国的GDP的一半是由外部世界市场来推动的,所以当外部市场条件恶化,中国的GDP增长速度嘎然停顿了--这个就带来内部压力

所谓的压力的表现,目前来自于内部,就是停滞不前,这不仅仅反映在工业化现代化上,还反映在农业现代化上。

房地产疯狂膨胀就是工业化停滞的表现。

我再说一次,机会和办法还是有的。

家园 回复他的是在去年。

去年资金面随着央行的不断加准备金加息是比较紧张的,9,10月达到顶峰,表现为城投债和房地产债的崩盘,一些玩高利贷的和非法集资的跑路甚至自杀。

但是今年随着所谓的预调微调,三次降准一次降息,资金面确实比去年宽松了。

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