主题：银行的好日子结束了 -- zhuhit

Europe, no. Not all countries have 10%. You need to check data.

Keep in mind, USD and Euro are reserve currencies. In the subprime crisis, half of the losses were undertaken by international investors.

更何况大部分是投到资产而不是消费掉了。--we have no data. I can also claim that many convert into bribes and Swiss bank deposits. Without hard convincing data, one can draw any conclusion he or she likes.

you can use mathematical models to show that this kind of "ultimatum game" will produce lose-lose results. Greeks are very proud people.

I bet that they will put extreme left coalition into the gov. German threat will backfire.

but it does not matter, Germany just wants to use this once-in-one-hundred-year opportunity to reshape Euroland into a more dynamic and powerful Germanic confederation. Germans pay too much for EU in the past and now it is time for it to reclaim its appropriate status.

Greece can choose to exit and form a monetary union with those weak PIGs such as Portugal, Italy, Spain and even France.

Before WWI, there were actually two monetary regions in Europe: the Latin one and the Germanic one. Not bad for both sides.

Rights come after contribution and strength. As a debtor, what will come is only slavery. Greeks enjoyed party too long and then got what they deserve.

德国也逃不过原罪--I do not think hard work, solid budget control and money-saving are sins.

BTW, check the numbers: most Greek bonds were purchased by French banks. French banks are the largest supporter of Greece, not German ones. Frenchmen used their puppet Trichet, the former ECB president, to dump their banks' Greek debts upon the balance sheet of ECB.

in lose-lose game. Germans lose less, Greeks lose more.

Greeks are too proud to accept their fate. Germanic nations will not trash their principles to pay for the additional burden without a treaty revision.

短期内双方会妥协一下, not at all.

继续请教，希腊退出欧元区有可能引起希腊内战或者是欧洲局部战争吗？由此带来的collateral damage对中国和美国的最坏影响能到什么程度？多谢~

希腊人就是醉死不认半壶酒钱,打死也不肯承认今天的局面是好吃懒做偷奸耍滑造成的，这跟某些African American面对别人说他们lazy时的反应有的一拼。。

1. Civil turmoil is sure for Greece. As to civil war, then it depends on Greek people. If they democratically vote for civil war, then they just deserve that. Applaude for their "brave and wise" choice for their own country!!

2. 欧洲局部战争--not at all. Today is not 1930s.

Greeks bluffed and overstated the effect of their exit to the Euroland. 2 years of long recession is expected.

3. US: recession for sure. Check my previous posts.

4. China: 中国最坏影响--China's fate is in the hand of Chinese political elites. If they choose to persecute political adversaries just as they do against Bo, internal political infight could easily destroy this nation.

China is too large and Greek collapse is peanut event for China. If China can implement FDR-styled policies and convert itself into a democratic nation with MUCH BETTER income distribution among haves and havenots, China could see this event as trivial.

It is despictable that a giant nation like China still relies on export demand for its domestic economic growth. It is equally despictable that this nation's elites are more willing to squeeze their compatriots to the limit to build up trillions of foreign reserves, than to distribute the fruit of economic growth A LITTLE BIT MORE EQUALLY among fellow Chinese.

In sum, GREEK'S CANCER IS TOO MUCH WELFARE AND LABOR POWER; CHINA'S CANCER IS TOO LITTLE WELFARE AND LABOR POWER.

Mainland Chinese used to have this mentality too.

You asked them why Chinese are so poor before 1980s... They will blah blah blah and tell you that it is because KMT gov. took away all the gold and sabotaged all the industries... blah blah....

The real answer is very simple: hard working chinese got screwed by a bad system and a crazy leader called Mao before 1980s.

码汉字不容易吧？

希腊，你我无分歧。那么希腊之后，会是谁呢？

中国的问题，不单单是对劳工的关怀太少。以今年来说，要避免“硬着陆”，必须要保一定的增长率。增长率保住了，物价也在可承受范围内，那么有余力调结构再调结构，一时调不动，各项规划推迟一两年也没关系。

但这个GDP增长率，在实体经济（尤其是外销）难以确保不跌的大环境下，怎么保？我看有人要动虚拟经济的脑筋，虚掩着门，任它低成本的美国热钱进来，装看不见。这种“饮鸩止渴”，只会帮倒忙。

既然“造新房子”（寻找类似于高铁这样的全新投资领域）难度很大，那还不如“收拾旧房子”，把已有的“熟地”------就是东部和中部较发达和“渐发达”地区的基层社会环境------搞搞好，比如：水利；水/气污染；东部发达地区的“高教逐步义务化”；针对“看病难”摸索居民“联社自保”（建立互助社等），私人诊所；这其中也包括“三铁”之类的“国有权利向下兼容”。这样努力后，如果GDP增长率仍不如意，比如只有4%，那就让它4%好了，好过一点不增长------千万不要再拔苗助长了。

“we have no data”-NO，we have datas.

审计署的债务统计公布中有明确的数据，印象中87%以上对应实物资产，还有部分是历史包袱，即经常性支出（其实其中还有部分也是对应着资产，92-94年的资产泡沫）。

当然，资本性支出的建设效率与运营效益是可以讨论的。

整体而言，你对国内的经济运行和体制不太熟悉，逻辑与论证存在着很大的偏差。

• look

growth data of China? haha.

growth data as reported by China? It was reported and also audited...

BTW, the data manipulation is nothing new, it happened in many Latin European nations, as well as in some Germanic nations (including US). China's manipulation is just a bit outrageous, so did Greece and Spain.

China's data are highly unreliabe--not my conclusion, but the conclusion of China's vice premier Li KeQiang.

a lot of Chinese back in China still enjoy the old style of massive expansion...

http://www.cchere.com/article/3730434

haha.

那还不如“收拾旧房子”，把已有的“熟地”------就是东部和中部较发达和“渐发达”地区的基层社会环境------搞搞好，比如：水利；水/气污染；东部发达地区的“高教逐步义务化”；针对“看病难”摸索居民“联社自保”（建立互助社等），私人诊所；这其中也包括“三铁”之类的“国有权利向下兼容”。这样努力后，如果GDP增长率仍不如意，比如只有4%，那就让它4%好了，好过一点不增长------千万不要再拔苗助长了。

--exactly!! High growth rate is not equivalent to improvement of life quality, esp., for average Joes. If China goes along the current "high growth pattern", then future turmoil is inevitable.

不好意思，我关于中国地方债务的讨论被parishg屏蔽，只能回复这里。

1、关于中国实体经济与地方债务的数据不仅有官方数据，我们有自己独立的数据来源、草根调查与研究结论与之印证，所以不能简单粗暴的一句话“中国的数据你还信，哈哈”，这不符合经济研究从业人员的职业道德；

2、如果将某位领导人的某句话视为金科玉律，我想为何不认可其说的其他观点呢？这种选择性的观察，我想也不利于得出贴近现实的客观结论；

3、我期待着能有充分数据支持、逻辑自洽的观点讨论，而非文宣式的武断结论。

谢谢！

关于地方债务那一段我英语不太好，不太看得懂，能否大致翻译一下。不知道地方债务包括政府融资平台吗？或者地方债务里，政府融资平台贷款算不算主要的地方债务呢？

对于地方融资平台，我多少还是知道一点，不从宏观来看，我支行在手的平台贷款从09的13亿，到现在约3.2亿，包括历次银监局检查涉及这几家平台贷款的贷款高峰期余额到现在余额我多少还有一点，考虑到我处于沿海一省会城市，此类平台贷款的数据还是有点说服力。

我不是金融专业毕业，计算数学到了银行，很多宏观的金融模型没做过，能否简要说明下，大家对地方债务核心担心在哪里？或者说大家认为地方债务存在的核心问题是什么？我可以尽量从四川，贵州，云南，黑龙江，江苏，山东这几个地方询问下大家担心的地方债务中有关银行的微观数据（如果和银行相关的话，或许不完全，但可管中窥豹）