主题：【原创】关于央视报道中国购买苏-35和拉达级潜艇 -- 种植园土

明摆着一个是北方四岛，一个是钓鱼岛以及将来可能有什么变数，对日本南敲北打。相比之下这些军火恐怕象征意义更大些。24架飞机和买二造二的潜艇，对中国而言杯水车薪。更何况钓鱼岛海域完全在中国陆基武器的覆盖范围下。

美国还从俄国进口mi-17直升机呢，那是给伪军用的。

看看将来怎么具体实施。24架苏35，不但对中国而言杯水车薪，单为这24架苏35保存一个后勤维修体系？如今仅仅是协议签了，第一，金额是多少？好像没人提。其次，什么时候付款移交？好像也不确定。我倒是好奇这苏35过来后会如何使用。

去年有过一条消息，解放军空军过境伊朗如何如何，真假难辩。如果是真的，意味着中伊两国军事合作达到了伊朗已经可以为中国空军提供后勤服务的水平。考虑到伊朗那边可能的紧张局势，这苏35用在支援伊朗方面恐怕很合适，过境俄罗斯时总不发愁维修保养。解放军是否可以出国作战不正是国内如今争论的焦点之一，将来没有什么是不可能的。

但24架苏35+4艘拉达，价格按0.6亿美元/架*24+4*4亿美元/条=30.4亿美元。价格按0.85亿美元/架*24+4*5亿美元/条=40.4亿美元。所以总价估计在30-40亿美元之间。

054A的造价，以前为2亿美元左右，够造15-20艘054A了。即便价格涨到3亿美元，也能造10-13条.

056的造价，估计在1亿美元左右，这批军购的总额足够买30-40条056。

这还不算进口武器的后续维护、弹药、配件、大修等等，以及与现有C4I体系整合的困难。

而现在正是中国的造船业急需订单的时候。

我自己也持很强的怀疑态度。但关于解放军出国作战的话题，海湾方向首当其冲，这不会有什么问题。近期国内对于海湾方向实际上投入很大。如果我没记错，胡锦涛任期内唯一一次外交场合对美公开表态，或者说威胁，是和伊朗挂钩的。对比一下，朝鲜半岛那么热闹不过是温家宝表态，钓鱼岛也就是个外交部表态。汶川地震时解放军救灾，一个旅几千人24小时内从浙江沿海某地在汶川附近集结完毕，救灾中最为高效的行动“正好”被沙特客人看到，当年沙特对华石油输出超过了对美。你别看东南方向吵闹得热闹，西北望长安，也有无数山。

中国刚刚换届完毕，新一代领导班子任期有十年。开头做的事情恐怕着眼点也有十年，不会拘泥于什么前任留下来的特定话题。这个事情才是个开头，中俄有什么合作难道就为了巴掌大的一块海域？安倍访美前我就说他是专程前往自取其辱的，你也知道大受冷遇，何况那块海域中方定期巡航已经是惯例，日本政府都呼吁日方船只规避中方船只了。

是警告日本不要有任何摆脱狗项圈的非分之想。

但美国在军事方面对日本的支持是明确的，而且也是做了相应准备的。这种准备源于美国海空军想利用现在中美双方实力差距，捞一把的冒险主义。

当然，美国陆军是绝对不感兴趣也绝对不掺和的，他们已经在朝鲜和越南试过了。

这个不是你说价格相当，就可以随便转换的。兔子现在军舰下饺子一样在造，可也并不妨碍花美元买飞机啊。而且这单子到底买不买，主要还是战略上的考虑吧，不能单从技术上作比较的。

“明摆着一个是北方四岛，一个是钓鱼岛以及将来可能有什么变数，对日本南敲北打”

---北方四岛俄方稳坐钓鱼船，他无需你南敲；钓鱼岛中方夹缝中求生，你指望他北打？

俄罗斯给咱当雷锋？

如果真以为人家要当雷锋，那是自己脑子坏掉了。

美国曾经获得过米格-21和歼-7的完整飞机，并用包括试飞等手段详细地了解了这个家族的飞机（歼-7后期改双三角翼加空战襟翼的型号除外）。

美国通过获得中国提供的J8机体对J8有了一定了解，并将相关J8信息通报韩国、日本、印度、中国台湾省，等等。

美国通过很多手段对苏-27家族有相当的了解。

为岛军购？眼界太细了吧。

不可能为钓鱼闹到要叫警察的地步，调戏摸乳甚至后背位都可以一步一步来，但要是110要来了肯定打住，绝不会以为多带了两把铅笔刀就可以不尿警察了。

中国军工近年来取得的进步有目共睹，不必妄自菲薄。

买了Su35并不意味着J11就要停产，买了“拉达”武船也不会关门。太行、秦岭、昆仑山，都在日积月累地长海拔，区区24架飞机就能把它们都撞毁了？

但是，短短十几年的时间就想全面超俄赶美，也是盲目乐观，毕竟人家也是花了几十年工夫的。

我们现在只能说是初步解决了有没有的问题，正在向好不好前进。过程中，再像以前一样虚心借鉴他人的长处，有何不可？

再说了，当年咱剪了Su27的合同，仿了Su33的设计，现在多少给一点补偿，也是理所应当。

归根到底，现在战略上需要和鹅毛抱团取暖，咱还不缺钱，那么大方一点有何不可？

未提任何军售消息，只有一个报道称，俄军总参谋长参加习近平会见俄国防部长时说，说俄军已经准备好了未来10-15年的技术升级，包括su-35,S400以及北方之神核潜艇，现在生产线已经处于满负荷运转状态。

DEFENSE NEWS发了一则消息如下：

Russia: No Deal on Sale of Fighters, Subs to China

TAIPEI — Russia is denying Chinese media claims that Moscow and Beijing have signed agreements to sell Russian-made arms and military technology to China, including 24 Su-35 multirole fighter jets and four Amur-class diesel submarines.

During a recent visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow from Friday to Sunday, no discussions took place regarding “military-technical cooperation” issues, the ITAR-TASS news agency reported Monday. This was in response to an earlier report by China’s CCTV on the same day.

“The Kremlin is officially denying even discussing arms trade during Xi’s visit,” said Vasiliy Kashin, a China military specialist at the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST). “In Russia-China relations, specific arms trade contracts are almost never discussed by the top leaders, just the general approaches.”

Another defense industry source in Russia said there are strong reservations about going forward on the memorandum of understanding signed in December to explore the sale of the twin-engine Su-35s and Amur submarines to China.

China intentionally violated intellectual property right (IPR) agreements when it copied and manufactured Russia’s Su-27 fighter as the J-11B, according to Russia.

In 1995, China secured a production deal with Russia to build 200 Su-27SKs, dubbed the J-11A, for $2.5 billion for the Shenyang Aircraft Corp. In 2006, Russia canceled the deal after 95 aircraft when it discovered China had reverse-engineered the fighter and was secretly manufacturing an indigenous copy, the J-11B, with Chinese-made avionics and engines.

There are strong suspicions China will procure the technological know-how of the Su-35 and Amur and simply produce an indigenous version.

But not all agree. Gary Li, a senior analyst at London-based IHS Fairplay, said China’s research and development have moved forward.

“It no longer will seek to directly reverse engineer everything it buys, but maybe adopt parts of the platform for other projects [and] integrate into domestic designs,” he said.

There also are concerns China wants access to the Su-35’s Saturn AL-117S engine, which is outfitted on the T-50, a prototype of Russia’s fifth-generation Sukhoi PAK FA stealth fighter.

However, Kashin said the risks of selling the Russian engine to China are negligible.

“An engine cannot be copied by obtaining a sample,” he said.

Li said he could envision Chinese aerospace engineers studying the aircraft’s engine and thrust-vectoring for future inclusion, as well as the Amur sub’s air-independent propulsion, but it will still be more than a decade before China will stop having to order engines to replace “worn-out ones,” as it has been doing with the J-11 and J-10 fighters.

“It always takes a few years before they can make a domestic alternative,” Li said.

Kashin cautions that a Chinese attempt to copy the Su-35, as they did with the Su-27, would be more difficult, “because this time, our Ukrainian ‘brothers’ cannot help them by selling the Chinese all the technology they lacked for a handful of dollars. I think the Amur situation will be generally the same.”

Ukraine has been accused of selling China former Soviet defense technologies, but it has no access to information regarding newer systems, such as the Su-35 and Amur.

“The Amur ultimately isn’t a strategic submarine, and as Russia’s interests in the Far East are not yet that ambitious, they can afford to sell them to China,” Li said. “How better to keep the U.S. pivot off their backs?”

MOSCOW – Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that 2014-2015 would be a year of youth exchanges between Russia and China. The initiative was proposed by visiting Chinese President Xi Jiping.

“We are going to support this initiative. We will do everything to enable our young people to communicate freely, discuss joint projects and plan joint initiatives for historical perspective,” Putin said after talks with his Chinese counterpart.

MOSCOW – Russia and China will be able to bring reciprocal trade up to 100 billion dollars by 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday after talks with Chinese President Xi Jiping.

Reciprocal trade, Putin said, grew by 5.1% last year to reach almost 90 billion dollars. The Russian president believes the task of bringing it to 100 billion dollars by 2015 is quite realistic.

MOSCOW – Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping opened Chinese Tourism Year in Russia.

Speaking at the ceremony at the Grand Kremlin Palace Putin said that Russian Tourism Year in China increased the number of Chinese tourists by nearly 50 percent.

MOSCOW – Chinese President Xi Jinping has become the first leader of a foreign country to visit the Operational Control Centre of the Russian Armed Forces.

The Chinese president visited the Centre on Saturday within his meeting with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Chief of Russia’s General Staff Valery Gerasimov said: “Esteemed Mr. Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China, you are the first leader of a foreign state whom the doors of the Russian Armed Forces Operational Control Centre are opened.”

MOSCOW – China and Russia will continue to strengthen and develop their military, political and strategic relations, Chinese President Xi Jinping said at a meeting with Russian Defence Ministry Sergei Shoigu on Saturday, March 23.

“My visit to the Russian Defence Ministry is intended to indicate that military, political and strategic relations between the two countries will strengthen as will cooperation between the Armed Forces of Russia and China,” Xi said.

MOSCOW – Inter-parliamentary and inter-regional cooperation between Russia and China will develop dynamically, Federation Council spokesperson Valentina Matviyenko said.

Opening the talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday, Matviyenko said his visit to Russia “is the major political event”. “Your visit was extremely successful,” the Federation Council chairperson noted.

She believes, “Russian and Chinese political scientists do everything possible to preserve friendship between our countries and peoples and continue comprehensive strategic partnership in all fields”.

MOSCOW – The positions of Russia and China on missile defence coincide to a large extent, Deputy Defence Minister Anatoly Antonov said on Saturday.

Commenting on the results of the talks between Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Russian deputy defence minister said, “The Russian defence minister and the Chinese president noted the commonness of views on international security. Both parties voiced common concerns about missile defence and agreed to continue talks on this problem.”

Antonov said during the meeting, Shoigu and Xi Jinping “stressed the need to develop military and military-technical cooperation”. “I’d like to note that we maintain friendship with China to strengthen regional cooperation and ensure stability and global security,” he stressed.

MOSCOW – The fact that Russia is chosen for the first state visit by the new Chinese president indicates that Russia is a priority in China's foreign policy, State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin said during the meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday.

It is the first foreign visit by the new head of China. It is indicative of what priority importance is attached to relationship with Russia. For Russia, developing cooperation with the People's Republic of China is also a priority, he said.

MOSCOW – Firm relations between Russia and China are an important and reliable guarantee for the international balance and peace, Chinese President Xi Jinping said when speaking at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) on Saturday.

He said it was great pleasure for him to visit MGIMO. The university with its high scientific achievements and noted teachers is known all over the world. Many prominent people came out from the university, he added.

GORKI – Xi Jinping said during the meeting with Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev that his first visit to Russia after he took office as president already achieved the goals, and the results were far beyond the expectations.

The Russian premier at the beginning of the meeting congratulated Xi on the election to the top post. "I would like to sincerely congratulate You on the election to the post of Chinese president, wish You great successes in the responsible work and express the hope that Your first visit to the Russian Federation will proceed on the highest level and will be marked with very good achievements, which already happens," Medvedev said.

MOSCOW – Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev extended the agreement with the United States on cooperation in the field of space exploration for peaceful purposes.

The agreement entered into force on June 17, 1992 and was extended three times in 1997, 2002 and 2007. “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia has received the American on the extension of the Agreement until 2020 subject to appropriate amendment,” the prime minister said.

“The agreement is one of the main legal instruments to ensure conditions for Russian-American cooperation in the field of space exploration and use for peaceful purposes. Its extension serves the interests of Russia and will facilitate effective implementation of its space projects, including those aimed at exploring Moon and Mars, and exchange of data received with the help of Russian and American spacecraft,” the government press service said.

MOSCOW – Russia and China should always remain good neighbors, good friends and reliable partners, Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Saturday when he addressed students at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO).

Firm relations between Russia and China are an important and reliable guarantee for the international balance and peace, the Chinese president noted.

MOSCOW – Russia’s multi-national computer security company Kaspersky Laboratory will be actively cooperating with the specialized Interpol division – INTERPOL Global complex for Innovation - in the struggle against cyber threats at the world level, the company’s press-service said in a press-release on Friday.

The agreement was achieved in the course of negotiations among Kaspersky Laboratory CEO Yevgeny Kaspersky, Interpol Secretary-General Ronald Noble and IGCI Executive Director Noboru Nakatani at the Kaspersky Laboratory head office in Moscow.

The Kaspersky Laboratory will provide extensive consultancy services to the IGCI in investigating cyber crimes and also delegate its specialists to the IGCI office in Singapore, due to open in 2014. Also, the company will back Interpol in its initiatives to expand the expertise of law enforcement agencies in countries around the world in fighting cyber threats and cyber criminals.

MURMANSK – The northern section of the Kola federal highway between Murmansk and the Russian-Norwegian border is still closed.

Traffic halted on the road on Friday morning due to bad weather conditions has not resumed yet. The snowstorm is continuing in the mountainous area. Road services cannot cope with the snow. Snowdrifts cover the road again shortly after it is cleared. Corridors are dug in the snow at some places.

NICOSIA – Cypriot President Nikos Anastasiades is ready to visit Russia as it possible, government spokesman Christos Stylianides said on Saturday.

Stylianides denied local mass media reports saying the Cypriot president would give up plans to visit Russia at the invitation of the country’s leadership.

MOSCOW – Russia’s Armed Forces laid the groundwork for up-to-date arms supplies for 10-15 years from now, chief of Russia’s General Staff Valery Gerasimov said.

The chief of Russia’s General Staff took part in Saturday’s meeting between Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“Today we’ve laid the groundwork for such arms supplies as the S-400 air defence systems, the Borei submarine and the Su-35 fighters for 10-15 years from now. The plants, which produce this hardware, are engaged with orders by 100 percent,” Gerasimov said.

MOSCOW – Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first foreign visit and his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin coincided in time with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s proposal to create an offshore zone in the Russian Far East. Moscow has clearly seen new opportunities associated with the rapid development of the Asia-Pacific Region. But it will not be easy for Russia to become a full participant in the rapid growth in that part of the world or even benefit from it.

MOSCOW – Russia’s Security Council, which gathered in the president’s residence of Zavidovo on Saturday, touched on the economic situation in the eurozone with the focus on the Cypriot crisis and the outcome of the Russian-Chinese talks of March 22, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

The Security Council also riveted attention to the social and economic in Russia, as well as to international issues, Peskov said.