主题：【原创】一些凌乱的想法，想到哪说到哪 -- puma2011

1.

US 生产关系 advantage, I have written a few posts on that, TGchina's 生产关系 is increasingly becoming an issue,

1) "中國5月外商直接投資下降達16月最大"

2)" 毛林共识下, TG金融逻辑鏈: 无风险利率>10% 新 晓兵"

无风险利率>10%: actually, one can say that Chinese TG elite capital (domestic and international, all kinds, a lot of US capital included) is actually viewing TGchina's 毛林共识 system/生产关系 as very "risky", therefore asking for a much higher risk premium, etc

3) the issues of tgchina"生产关系" problems: many more;

2.

tgchina's 13亿 troops: formidable

European white except for those in Germany: all becoming white trash, kind of,

American white: many of them are becoming white trash, except for those working in high tech and other high end sectors

kind of why US republican and democrat all want immigration law reform, they have to import tons of young smart blood from among those already studying in US colleges, and more from else where;

otherwise: uncle sam has a issue of running out of troops, and if you have no troops, your beautiful "生产关系" will be a paper tiger;

3.

because of that, TPP is an important deal for uncle sam as a 战略缓冲/进攻 area vs Tgchina.

but how TPP is going to come out? hard to say at this point, long way to go?

4.

companies like goog, employee or software engineers are still white dominated, like in other high end economic sectors, so US white troops are not that bad, not yet, but uncle sam has to work on immigration law fast.

5.

Tgchina: so far so good with its 13亿 troops, but how much more profit can TG afford the to feed capital/资本 wolfs to stay and work in china? 10% risk free rate for how long?

high tech such as software industry is an another issue: I just talked to some Chinese software engineers in GOOG, they said that in addition to all the other serious problems, Chinese 文字 is a huge problem by itself, regardless, formidable.

in addition, uncle sam's troops like TSLA, SCTY are developing robots/AI mega based factories as a new manufacturing model to kick ass of Tgchina's 人海战术;

and Tgchina's GFW and other 腦殘 policies will only help uncle sam to develop this "brain GFW" between TGchina and Uncle Sam's world;

6.

种植园土's 亡国之音 about TG top: their brains and their butts, and the splits among themselves, etc: that is actually one of the biggest problems, a kind of reflection of TGchina's rotten 生产关系.

in this world, information and brain power are not evenly distributed, elite=the smartest, troops=stupid, always and everywhere, and Chinese troops are particularly lacking information and information processing ability, due to Chinese political culture of 5k years.

and information transmits at light speed: Chinese elite's view of TGchina itself may actually matter the most, among world elite of economic and political capital decision making regarding their investment in Tgchina.

7.

in that sense, I really don't understand X's 反腐敗 bleeding drama hurting J core, H core and how many more of Chinese elite is going to get hurt bloodily?

my guess: when X was in California, he was fooled by uncle sam's 腐敗 information provided to him, he got tricked.

in today's world of capitalism, capital matters much more than "troops", and X as a philosophy PHD fake, now as commander in chief for TGchina?

X may try to emulate after/模仿 Mao, pretending caring for the troops, but at the cost of TGchina's elite?

in that sense, X is even 内战不内行.

so far, not impressed by his leadership at all.

8

if possible, comments from "汉密尔顿ABC" and "phobos" would be interesting.

対美国来説就是維持美元地盤的重要手段、所以美国会使用各種手段，用各種理由把人民幣（中国）排出TPP圏外。

13亿 Chinese troops (one of the most hard working troops in the world) to be managed by TG & uncle sam capital together as wife and husband, did TG's 汪洋 publically say that 中美婚姻 thing already in US anyway? he may not be joking.

after all said and done, all US capital and TG capital want is money, nothing else, but money, return on their capital, risk free or with manageable risk, then where and how to do that? not by killing each other, not likely: TGchina is just too big, uncle sam is just too smart, so, why not 婚姻, why fighting? why not just fuxxing for fun and money?(:)

of course, sometimes, you fight to fuxx and fuxx to fight, just making it spicier, baby(:).

therefore, what is more likely eventually: uncle sam & uncle TG work out some deal, together to do a great business in china's huge and still developing 載體 economy, with US sp500 companies participating in all sectors of Chinese economy, making good money on the way, as they are doing now.

that seems to be most logical and profitable path, then it will most likely happen.

I am going to write in my usual way, as explained many times before, food for thoughts, brief, trying to throw "points" out, with some physics analogies.

by the way, physics has quietly embedded into all kinds of ALGOs, running many "jobs" in uncle sam's white world.

1.

中美人员troops=labor force in general, or in the sense of troops vs elite;

there are a few posts here

中美人员素质对比 花5 集庆彪 字

2.

I have posted extensively about elite part, and recently about 生产关系 in my series of "汉密尔顿ABC"講金融, and 生产关系 is mostly created and managed by elite, as Marx said, marx is a great political economist, but that was then, it is now: humanity has progressed gigantically since then, as it should have.

3.

生产力, a big part of 生产力 is your troops, regardless, and how they perform (mainly 勞動生產率) relative to other countries is a big deal: your troops=your market consumption power as well, among other things.

you nation can only progress as a whole if your troops moves forward.

kind of why as 楼主 said, US elite is now seriously worried about their troops under TGchina's pressure, in terms of jobs, etc.

and at humanity level, "peaceful" competition among nations is always encouraged.

4.

in general, US troops has a much wider range of productivity, outstanding at higher end, and almost animal like in lower end, and as posted before:

"野性的呼唤: 美国力量之一 ", 中华民族的高智商: a complex issue", etc

basically, compared to US troops, Tgchina's troops are highly concentrated in the middle part of the "US range", lacking creativity etc at higher end, but extremely well educated, motivated, and hard working.

yes, Chinese have farmers, and now many 90 folks are full of 野性的呼唤 etc.

5.

I am here comparing US/Chinese troops much more in terms of information processing, in the background of their culture and other systematic variables, and often in an extreme way to get the points out, which may be offensive to many Chinese here in this forum. but, stay cool and keep open minded is more important than feeling humbled or humiliated. by the way, I have no intention to humiliate anybody here. what money do I make out of it(:)?

6.

Chinese troops is more of 静质量, with very little ability in information absorbing and processing, although improving;

US troops is much more of 相对论质量, a huge margin over Chinese troops, although the US pre college education (12 years before college) is now almost becoming a joke, which has already impacted US troops negatively.

7.

"静质量这一名词在狭义相对论中通常是指物质在静止时所测量的质量（静质量）。这个意义的质量与牛顿力学的质量相同。"

basically, Chinese troops lives (or perceives outside world) in a 牛顿力学 world, or 低速 world;

in a newton 機械 world, we don't really have to deal with 电磁 or information if you will;

then, we don't have to be information sensitive, or we don't need 相对论质量 concept/model, roughly and in an analogy.

8.

wiki: 相對論性質量的概念[编辑]

早期的发展：横向与纵向质量[编辑]

约瑟夫·汤姆孙在1881年[1] 承认一个带电的物体比一个没有带电的物体更难加速。因此静电能量表现成某种电磁质量，增加了物体的机械质量。之后威廉·维恩 （1900）[2]和 Max Abraham （1902）[3] 认为一个物体的总共质量与它的电磁质量相同。因为电磁质量取决于电磁能量，维恩所提出的质能关系是m=(4/3)E/c^2。

George Frederick Charles Searle 和汤姆孙也指出，电磁质量随着物体的速度而增加

without going further into details (SR is not an easy subject, particularly in china, due to language and other barriers, such as “朗道势垒” & GFW,etc)

but in general, as we all know, SR comes out of solving some paradoxes (伽利略变换 洛伦兹变换 etc: 光速不變 must 满足相对性原理) in the world of maxwell equation or 电磁 world, or information world fundamentally, as opposed to newton's 機械 world .

the world has completely changed since then, as we all know. information, information, information.

http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%8B%B9%E7%BE%A9%E7%9B%B8%E5%B0%8D%E8%AB%96%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E8%B3%AA%E9%87%8F

9

"\gamma=1/\sqrt{1-v^2/c^2}"是洛伦兹因子，or you could call it 信息因子, and if your kids are further interested, there is an another important 因子 called phase 因子, 相位因子 of quantum physics, and I have posted quite bit about it, another concept challenging possibly to entire Chinese physics world in mainland.

10.

in today's global information economy, if your troops have no idea about what is and how to process information, then just forget about innovation, 成建制的 innovation.

11.

as posted before, we can't blame all these on TG, and to be "objectively" speaking, TG has modernized Chinese nation quite bit, compared to India if you will.

as posted before, more profoundly, the Chinese nation is almost "近亲繁殖" in its reproduction of all aspects of Chinese society.

as posted before, that atop many other reasons, us Chinese here in US is significantly outperformed by Indians in the camps of sp500 level executives, CEOS (indian CEOS: MSFT, Pepsi, master card etc), and 30% of sp500 companies were created by "non-us native"immigrants.

12.

another example here is this forum: recently there is some kind of post about HongKong ( I guess, I scanned twice, not knowing what the hell it talks about(:), no offense again), and there are 2000 flowers, many of them are from us Chinese here in US, I would think.

the Chinese ALGOs running in their blood draw them over to posts like that, arguing, cheering, like they have nothing else to do? OMG(:). again, just as an example, on offense to whomever.

in this case, your Chinese blood is kind of 电解质, going into your brain, activating those Chinese ALGOs automatically, OMG(:). Uncle TG smiles, I told you, baby. "没有了祖国你将什么都不是".

as posted before, the Chinese culture and pride are just deeply in our blood, period.

13.

now, what is the point?

the point is: the hard working and very "nice" Chinese troops of 1.3 Billion is a huge advantage of TGchina's 載體 economy, with a tons of profits to be made, even going forward, for many years to come.

Chinese troops may be lacking 相对论质量 now, but absent of a third world war, the gaps of all kinds between US and TGchina should be expected to become narrower, not widen, however slow it may be.

14

obviously, US and TGchina elite capital know all these "models" much better than I can articulate: then, how to make money out of these Chinese troops? (:)

15.

another point I have posted a couple of times before: 剥削有功 may be extreme, but it is true.

economics, 勞動生產率 of capitalism is all about sucking money/capital out of stupid/weak hands, putting money/capital in the hands of smart/strong innovators, so society can progress as whole.

yes, there are humanitarian aspects of capitalism and they should be improved as well, etc, but that does not change the nature of the game. not at all. period.

nevertheless, those 道德經 tricks have been played by politicians all over the world forever, and particularly by Chinese social elite in managing Chinese troops for 5 k years.

one of reasons: in china, social elite has been political elite, 5 k years.

politicians=披著道德經羊皮的 smart 狼, for most of politicians.

deal with it, baby(:).

how to normalize political system is still a challenge to humanity. right now, politicians are wasting tons of system's money.

16

"汉密尔顿ABC"講金融 (2): 温水煮青蛙 晓兵

in the "温水煮青蛙" model under "华盛顿共识", anybody of Chinese troops can become a super rich innovator, "fair" and productive?

but, "毛林共识下, TG金融逻辑鏈: 无风险利率>10%": ugly or beautiful?

kind of why posts such as "puma2011：【原创】一些凌乱的想法，想到哪说到哪" ""汉密尔顿ABC"講金融 are so interesting, now all making sense?

• 中美人员对比: "静质量", "相对论质量"

　　在美国的战略家们借日本右翼之手，挑起钓鱼岛争端，成功阻断中日韩东北亚自贸区谈判、中日货币互换的进程之后，中国周边的地缘政治环境正日渐变得复杂和严峻。中日、中菲、中越之间此起彼伏的岛礁及海洋权益之争，不仅对我国现实的边海防安全构成严重威胁，更对我传统的边海防观念产生强烈冲击和挑战。

　　我们必须意识到，在全球资源争夺日趋激烈的大前提下，边海防安全不能仅仅理解为领土、领海及海洋权益的得失问题，而是关乎国家发展，民族复兴的国家生存大战略问题。我们还必须看到，在美国战略重心东移，推进亚太再平衡战略的大背景下，中日钓鱼岛之争，中菲黄岩岛、仁爱礁之争，中越南海海洋权益之争，都不能仅仅看做是双边的岛礁领土和海洋权益之争，而是美国试图通过“代理人遏制”阻断中国发展，维护美国霸权大棋局的一部分。这意味着我们必须确立新的边海防观。而确立新的边海防观，则需要先准确判断对手的战略意图和战略路径。

　　美国推出“亚太再平衡”战略的真正目的是什么？答案只有一个：解除中国对美国霸权的潜在挑战和威胁。那么，美国将如何做到这一点？自美国金融危机以来，我们看到美国人为此绞尽脑汁，使出浑身解数：压人民币升值，对中国产品进行反倾销调查，提高关税壁垒，给中国从海外获得资源及并购外企设置重重障碍，把中国排除于TPP之外，等等，可谓无所不用其极。但这些小打小闹的动作，已很难从根本上撼动身量日渐壮大的中国。这是否意味着美国已对中国的强大无可奈何了呢？未必。我们眼下决不可盲目乐观，更不能掉以轻心。当中日、中菲、中越的岛礁和海权之争，几乎不约而同地在中国周边相继突现，美国人用地缘政治策略配合其金融大战略的图谋，也逐渐清晰地显示出轮廓——

　　自1971年美元与黄金脱钩，美国人真正获得金融霸权以来，通过向全世界输出廉价纸币，换取各国实物财富，就成了美国国家生存的基本方式和美国国家大战略的核心设计，也就成了不容任何人挑战的美国核心利益。四十余年里，美国人通过战争或制造、挑起地区性危机的办法，与美元起伏涨跌的趋势相配合，已经数次扫荡或攫取过不同地区和国家的财富。如果我们还有记忆的话，应该不会忘记1978年至1984年美元指数转强之后，拉丁美洲金融危机爆发。结果，一度欣欣向荣的拉美繁荣，瞬间繁华凋敝，阿根廷这些已步入发达国家行列的佼佼者，重新沦落为发展中国家！更令我们记忆犹新的是，1996年至2002年，美元指数又一次走强之时，与之对应的是东南亚金融危机爆发。一时间，亚洲四小龙四小虎无一幸免，全部被这场风暴打得“倒退二十年”。值得注意的是，这两次美元走强的时间全都在6年左右，显现出某种周期性。

　　现在，随着美国经济呈现复苏迹象，美元指数自2011年开始，已进入新一轮上升通道。一个重要信号是，美联储正在有步骤地退出量化宽松，这意味着美元的泄洪闸正在落下，美元的流量将会很快收紧，对已经习惯美元资本洪流的各国经济来说，流动性不足的时刻即将到来。而参照拉美金融危机和东南亚金融危机的情况看，这时候如果美国政府在某个资本云集的地区制造一次地区危机，美联储再趁机吹响“加息”的号角，全球的投资人就会恐慌性地竞相从该地区撤资抽逃，一来对该地区的资本产生强大的抽血效应，二来掉头去美国避险，追捧加息后的美元，推高美国的债市、股市，创造又一波美国经济大牛市！但故事并未到此为止。因为这时，除美国之外，其他地区和国家的经济已处在风雨飘摇、哀鸿遍野之际，已在债市股市赚得钵满盆满的美国人，会趁势杀回马枪，到那些深陷危机的国家去抄底，以极低廉的价格，收购扫荡各国的优质资产……

　　当我们看穿了美国的这一金融大战略魔术，再把它与时下中国周边骤然紧张的地缘态势联系起来看，美国人想干什么，不是一目了然了吗？在美国宁可放俄罗斯一马，吞咽下克里米亚这枚苦果，也要不遗余力推动中国与周边国家因岛礁或海权争端，酿造一场地区冲突以满足其用地缘危机配合“币缘”攻势时，中国周边的边海防问题，也就不再是局部的单纯的领土主权争夺。因此，中国的新边海防观和相关战略必须立足于中国整体国家利益和安全通盘考量，着眼于破解对手扼制中国崛起，鲸吞中国财富的金融大战略，而不能局限于传统的守疆戍边固土的小格局之上。(国防大学教授 乔良)

ps:美国已经是总动员了，花样百出，倾巢而动，变卖祖产（美元），纠合亡命之徒，孤注一掷。但要害就是两个：不愿意同归于尽，不愿意放弃高消费的生活水平。所以，只要抓住这两个要害，挺住这一波，前途是光明的。

同马拉松

《美国一季度GDP增长率终值暴跌2.9% 5年来最低》

外链出处美国商务部当地时间25日公布了该国第一季度GDP终值，数据显示，按环比年率计算，今年第一季度美国国内生产总值下跌2.9%，这一数据不但超出了经济学家的预测，更是创下5年来最差记录。

观察者网曾报道，此前5月29日，美国政府发布的1季度GDP修正报告将增速调整为-1%，如果说这个数字还勉强可以接受，那么终值则超出了所有投行的预期。美国彭博社称，相比于4月公布的初值成长0.1%，第一季GDP环比年率已经下修了3.0个百分点，5月修正和6月终值之间的差距是1976年有记录以来最大。

从去年年底开始，就有很多经济学家，包括国际货币基金组织这样的权威机构一直表示，美国以及高收入国家已经走出了经济危机的泥淖，开始走上复苏之路，并成为全球经济增长的主动力。而25日公布的美国2014年第一季度GDP数据显然跟这种说法南辕北辙。虽然之前经济学家们的预测也是说会下跌，但是实际数据还是出乎大家意料。

美国一季度GDP增长率创2009年一季度以来的最低

这其中的主要原因，一是美国消费者在医疗保健及其相关服务上的支出跟政府的预测有很大的出入。政府曾预计随着奥巴马医改法案的实施，第一季度民众的医疗相关支出有望得到提高，但实际数据比政府预计的要少近七分之一，出口也低于预计的目标。而更多的经济学家和评论员则把第一季度GDP下跌归罪于去年年底及今年年初的异常气候状况，连续不断的大风雪令经济活动大幅减少。

有分析人士对此指出，美国第一季度GDP下滑，是经济复苏进程中严重倒退；美国第一季度GDP大幅下滑2.9%，意味着2%的复苏速度恐难以为继，因为即使在今年剩下的3个季度美国GDP都实现3%的增长，2014年美国GDP增长也仅1.5%。美国数据走软意味着美联储在短期收紧货币政策的概率大大降低，今年下半年以及明年上半年降息可能性大减。

各项经济数据疲软

第一季消费者支出增幅从3.1%降至1.0%。消费支出在美国经济活动中的比重超过三分之二。

同日公布的美国5月耐用品订单数据表现也不乐观，月率下降1.0%，与预期持平，前值增长0.8%。这是四个月来首次出现下滑，这也暗示第二季度经济增长反弹力度可能会不及预期。

第一季出口下滑8.9%，为五年来最大跌幅，初值为下降6.0%。由此导致的贸易逆差拖累经济增长率减少1.53个百分点。

其他对第一季经济增长构成拖累的因素包括补充库存步伐缓慢、天然气钻探等非住宅建设投资大幅下滑、以及政府的国防支出疲弱。

企业库存增加459亿美元，少于前月490亿美元的估计水平，亦远低于第四季的增长步伐。

美国舆论依然乐观 投行纷纷调高预期

尽管如此，舆论对美国经济依然充满乐观。本周的房地产市场数据显示，5月份新建房屋的销售额是自2008年以来增幅最大的，二手房交易额也是三年来增长最快的，另外就业率、消费者信心，以及制造业和服务业的增长也是非常显著的。彭博通讯社邀请的经济专家们预测今年第二季度美国的GDP增幅将为3.5%，上半年平均增长率为3.1%。

Ameriprise Financial公司高级经济学家Russell Price告诉彭博社：“我认为一季度GDP报告并没有反映出美国经济真实的健康状况。就业数据相当稳定，我们以前看到工资增长的初步迹象，而这将会刺激需求增长，从而带动经济的其它方面（一期增长）。”

同时，市场的反应也蛮有信心，纳斯达克指数上升了0.6%，道琼斯指数上涨0.2%，标普500指数也上升了0.4%。

尽管一季度经济衰退幅度令人意外，但多家投行还是纷纷上调了二季度的增长预期。高盛、巴克莱将二季度GDP预期由3.8%、3%上调至4%。高盛认为医疗保健支出和净出口两大拖累因素是暂时的，无法反映美国经济走强的趋势。巴克莱认为一季度基数低，二季度将反弹。

备注：当然，这只是一季度的，不过2季度马上就要出炉，期待这次的科幻片不要够刺激哦

另外，我闻到了火药味越来越近了，大考即将来临，站直了，别趴下；走过去，前面是个天。

老外喜欢说“But”，呵呵。

如果美帝沉迷于页岩气带来的能源产业的话，也许是中华的福。

能源优势实际上在产业链上是“递减”的。也就是说，产业链越高端，能源价格的优势就越不明显。以芯片行业为例

沙子——多晶硅——单晶硅——芯片——芯片设计业。单位产值所消耗的能源就越少。

美国页岩气便宜，而且禁止出口中国，但是页岩气生产出的乙烯可以大量出口呀。我们再拿乙烯合成工业上用的各种化工品。完成了美国做低端产业，我们改做中端产业，这个产业的战略转移。

我们只要抓紧学习赶超，争取在高端产业上抢美国一块块实地。没有必要纠缠在是进口天然气还是进口乙烯的问题上。

所以说，如果是中国这样第三世界国家，在基础原料上下功夫倒也罢了。美国这样做的话，那就是耽误了自己的产业进步之路。

新技术这篇还没写，但我 看不出美国在这个方向上有放松的迹象。美国的再工业化是一套组合拳，产业链上说是发展高端优势，重振中端产业并为高端提供基础，培育低端产业的代替者以挤压主要竞争对手（中国）；在政治上，利用中国的原油困局逼中国在各个方向上出头，TPP统一和创造一个巨大的市场。

所以你的but逻辑是对的，只是不应景。

Finally, someone who reads history.

Someone else should perhaps go read fantasy at Oxbridge.

美国在高端搞是没错的。但是从低端搞是错的。美国作为第一世界国家，没有必要从低端搞。两手抓，但是有一个手是错的，使它的工业化打了一个大折扣。

至于低端惠及中高端产业，真看不出来有什么惠及的！美国产的乙烯，中国也可以买到，价格不比美国企业买的贵。美国企业唯一省得的就是那点路费了。要知道大宗货物走的是海运，往往比国内运输更便宜。

所谓的TPP是消减“进口”关税，而不是“出口”关税，相互敞开市场。美国乐于出口工业入门级原料，我们自然就乐于进口这些原料，中国自主就可以决定进口原料级产品时不征收关税。这一切都与TPP无关。

进口乙烯相当于进口石油！

1.

I don't have much research on this topic, just some impressions.

advanced 工业化 needs a flourishing network of all kinds of small business to support a nation's top tier companies, a good example is Germany, and japan to some degree;

US: high tech, biology, services, tons of small business thriving and innovating; a lot of immigrants;

just check nasdaq, IBB, IWM, IWS, IWC.

mid tier and more conventional manufacturing: US white kids kind of 眼高手低, some labor force issues.

2. How a US high tech "small" business is getting started:

"Hawkins: 大腦=a super network"

http://www.ccthere.com/article/4025662