主题：好文ZT：为下一个改变游戏规则的人做好准备：数字人民币 -- thetruth

用百度翻的，看不懂就去看原文吧

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为下一个改变游戏规则的人做好准备：数字人民币

Pepe Escobar • May 5, 2020

https://www.unz.com/pescobar/get-ready-for-the-next-game-changer-the-digital-yuan/

一个新的，激进的模式转变正在进行中。2020年上半年，美国经济可能萎缩多达40%。以购买力平价计算，中国已经是世界上最大的经济体数年了，即使以汇率计算，中国也可能很快成为世界上最大的经济体。

后行星锁定世界-仍然是一个模糊的幻影-很可能需要后行星锁定的货币。而正是在这一点上，一位严肃的候选人介入了这场争论：可流通的数字人民币（fiat digital yuan）。

上个月，中国人民银行（PBOC）证实，一些大型银行开始在中国四个不同地区尝试使用新的数字人民币进行电子支付。然而，目前还没有正式推出所谓的数字货币电子支付（DCEP）的时间表。

有这个计划的人是中国人民银行行长易纲。他已经证实，除了在苏州、雄安、成都和深圳进行试验外，中国人民银行也在测试2022年冬奥会的假设情景。

易纲认为，虽然DCEP“取得了很好的进展”，但他坚称，中国人民银行将“在风险控制方面保持谨慎，特别是要研究将反洗钱和‘了解客户’的要求，纳入DCEP的设计和体系。”

DCEP应被解读为中国最终实现更具突破性的取代美元成为世界储备货币的路线图。中国已经在数字货币抽奖中领先：DCEP推出得越早，就越能说服世界，特别是南半球，能协同作战。

中国人民银行正在与四大国有银行以及支付巨头腾讯（Tencent）和蚂蚁金服（Ant Financial）共同开发这一系统。

中国农业银行（ABC）开发的一款移动应用已经在微信上流传。这实际上是一个链接到DCEP的接口。此外，包括星巴克、麦当劳和赛百味在内的19家餐厅和零售店也参与了试点测试。

中国在整个数字频谱领域发展迅速。一个区块链服务网络（BSN）不仅为国内而且为全球贸易目的而启动。据工业和信息化部（MIIT）称，一个大型委员会正在监管BSN，其中包括来自中国人民银行、百度和腾讯的高管。

以黄金为后盾

那么这一切意味着什么？

香港的银行业人士告诉我，北京不愿意为了整个南半球的利益，尤其在石油美元处于低迷状态的时候，用人民币取代美国美元，

北京方面的官方立场是，美元应该被IMF批准的一揽子货币（美元、欧元、人民币、日元）取代。这将消除人民币作为唯一储备货币的沉重负担。

但在全面信息战的环境下，这可能只是一种分散注意力的策略。国际货币基金组织（IMF）的一揽子货币仍然意味着美国的控制权，而不是中国想要的。

问题的关键在于，一个数字的、主权的人民币可能会得到黄金的支持。这还没有得到证实。黄金可以作为直接的后盾；支持债券；或者仅仅作为抵押品。可以肯定的是，一旦北京宣布建立一种以黄金为后盾的数字货币，美元将遭受沉重的打击。

在这一新框架下，各国对中国的出口不需要超过进口，这样就有足够的人民币进行贸易。中国政府也不必像美元那样，一直以电子和人工方式印刷人民币，以满足贸易需求。

数字人民币将得到大量中国制造的商品和服务的有效支撑，而不是需要800个军事基地的跨洋帝国的支撑。数字人民币的价值将由市场决定，就像比特币一样。

整个过程已经酝酿了数年，2000年代末金砖国家峰会内部已经开始认真讨论，特别是俄罗斯和中国——金砖国家内部的核心战略伙伴关系。

考虑到逐步绕开美元的多种战略，比如从双边本币贸易开始，俄罗斯和中国在三年前成立了俄中人民币合作基金

北京的战略是经过仔细调整的，就像玩围棋一样。除了7年来有条不紊地大量储备黄金（就像俄罗斯一样），中国政府一直在争取更广泛地使用特别提款权，同时确保不会将人民币定位为战略竞争对手。

但现在，后星球封锁环境正逐渐成为北京采取行动的理想选择。即使是在Covid-19危机爆发之前，中国领导人就已显著地感觉到中国正受到美国政府的全面攻击。混合战争已经达到了疯狂的程度，这意味着双边关系只会变得更糟，而不是更好。

因此，当我们的购买力平价和汇率都使中国成为世界上最大的经济体时；除了2020年上半年，中国仍然是增长最强劲的主要经济体；生产性、创新性、高效性，并有望通过“中国制造2025”计划达到更高的技术水平；而且能够在创纪录的时间内赢得与Covid-19的“人民战争”，所有必要的因素似乎都已经到位。

但是，还有软实力。北京需要让南半球站在自己一边。美国政府对此一清二楚；这就是为什么美国现在在歇斯底里般的妖魔化中国，把一切有关Covid-19病毒的谎言和编造毫无证据的归罪于中国身上。

“迫在眉睫的到来”

主权数字人民币的一个关键优势是，北京不需要浮动纸币-顺便说一句，由于几乎所有人都在转向电子支付，人民币在整个中国都处于边缘地位。

使用区块链技术的数字人民币将自动浮动，从而绕过美国控制的全球金融化赌场。

主权数字货币的数量是固定的。这本身就消除了一种瘟疫：定量宽松（QE），如直升机货币。而这使得主权数字货币成为首选的贸易媒介，货币转移不受地区限制,并且银行也不能作为中介收取离谱的费用。

当然会有阻碍。就像不停地妖魔化新奥威尔主义的中国一样，目的就是转移人们对比特币和加密货币的注意力。 比特币和加密货币的全部目的就是分散化货币所有权，从中央集权结构中获得自由。它们会造恐怖的谣言，说中国人民银行可能会抢走任何人的数字资金，或者对那些引起中国共产党政府不满的情况下没收所有者的钱包，这将引起人们的恐慌。

中国在搞加密数字货币，但美国、英国、俄罗斯和印度也正在推出自己的加密货币。由于显而易见的原因，国际清算银行（BIS）作为各国央行的中央银行非常清楚，未来就是现在。他们对50多家央行的研究是毫无疑问的：我们正面临“迫在眉睫的到来”。但谁将获得最大的奖品？

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Get Ready for the Next Game-Changer: the Digital Yuan

Pepe Escobar • May 5, 2020

https://www.unz.com/pescobar/get-ready-for-the-next-game-changer-the-digital-yuan/

A new, radical paradigm shift is in progress. The U.S. economy may shrink as much as 40% in the first semester of 2020. China, already the world’s largest economy by PPP for a few years now, may soon become the world’s largest economy even in exchange rate terms.

The post-Planet Lockdown world – still a hazy mirage – may well need a post-Planet Lockdown currency. And that’s where a serious candidate steps into the fray: the fiat digital yuan.

Last month, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) confirmed that a group of top banks started trials in electronic payment in four different Chinese regions using the new digital yuan. Yet there’s no timetable yet for the official launch of what is called the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP).

The man with the plan is PBOC governor Yi Gang. He has confirmed that apart from the trials in Suzhou, Xiong’an, Chengdu and Shenzhen, the PBOC is also testing hypothetical scenarios for the 2022 Winter Olympics.

While DCEP, according to Yi, “has made very good progress,” he insists the PBOC will be “cautious in terms of risk control, especially to study anti money-laundering and ‘know your customer’ requirements to incorporate in the design and system of DCEP.”

DCEP should be interpreted as the road map for China leading to an eventual, even more groundbreaking replacement of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. China is already ahead in the digital currency sweepstakes: the sooner DCEP is launched the better to convince the world, especially the Global South, to tag along.

The PBOC is developing the system with four top state-owned banks as well as payment behemoths Tencent and Ant Financial.

A mobile app developed by the Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) is already circulating on WeChat. This is in effect an interface linked to DCEP. Moreover, 19 restaurants and retail establishments including Starbucks, McDonald’s and Subway are part of the pilot testing.

China is advancing fast on the whole digital spectrum. A Blockchain Service Network (BSN) was launched not only for domestic but also for global trade purposes. A large committee is supervising BSN, including executives from the PBOC, Baidu and Tencent, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).

Backed by gold

So what does this all mean?

Well connected banking sources in Hong Kong have told me Beijing is not interested for the yuan to replace the U.S. dollar – for all the interest across the Global South in bypassing it, especially now that the petrodollar is in a coma.

The official Beijing position is that the U.S. dollar should be replaced by an IMF-approved Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket of currencies (dollar, euro, yuan, yen). That would eliminate the heavy burden of the yuan as the sole reserve currency.

But that may be just a diversionist tactic in an environment of all-out information war. A basket of currencies under the IMF still implies U.S. control – not exactly what China wants.

The meat of the matter is that a digital, sovereign yuan may be backed by gold. That’s not confirmed – yet. Gold could serve as a direct back up; to back bonds; or just lay there as collateral. What’s certain is that once Beijing announces a digital currency backed by gold, it will be like the U.S. dollar being struck by lightning.

Under this new framework, nations won’t need to export more to China than they import so they have enough yuan to trade. And Beijing won’t have to keep printing yuan electronically – and artificially, as in the case of the U.S. dollar – to meet trade demands.

The digital yuan will be effectively backed up by the massive amount of Made in China goods and services – and not by a transoceanic Empire of 800 Bases. And the value of the digital yuan will be decided by the market – as it happens with bitcoin.

This whole process has been years in the making, part of serious discussions started already in the late 2000s inside BRICS summit meetings, especially by Russia and China – the core strategic partnership inside the BRICS.

Considering multiple strategies to progressively bypass the U.S. dollar, starting with bilateral trade in their own currencies, Russia and China, for instance, set up a Russia-Chian RMB Cooperation Fund three years ago.

Beijing’s strategy is carefully calibrated, like playing go long-term. Apart from methodically stockpiling gold in massive quantities (just like Russia) for seven years now, Beijing has been campaigning for a wider use of SDR while making sure to not position the yuan as a strategic competitor.

But now the post-Planet Lockdown environment is shaping up as ideal for Beijing to make a move. Even before the onset of the Covid-19 crisis the predominant feeling among the leadership was that China is under a full spectrum attack by the United States government. Hybrid War already reaching fever pitch implies bilateral relations will only get worse, not better.

So when we have China as the world’s largest economy by both PPP and exchange rate; still the strongest growing major economy, barring the first semester of 2020; productive, innovative, efficient and on track to reach a higher technological level with the Made in China 2025 program; and capable of winning the “people’s war” against Covid-19 in record time, all the necessary elements seem to be in place.

But then, there’s soft power. Beijing needs to have the Global South on its side. The United States government knows it very well; no wonder the current hysteria is all about demonizing China as “guilty” on all – unproved – counts of fostering and lying about Covid-19.

An “impending arrival”

A key advantage of a sovereign digital yuan is that Beijing does not need to float a paper yuan – which by the way is being sidelined all across China itself, as virtually everyone is switching to electronic payment.

The digital yuan, using blockchain technology, will automatically float – thus bypassing the U.S.-controlled global financialized casino.

The amount of sovereign digital currency is fixed. That in itself eliminates a plague: quantitative easing (QE), as in helicopter money. And that leaves the sovereign digital currency as the preferred medium for trade, with currency transfers unimpeded by geography and, the icing on the cake, without banks charging outrageous fees as intermediaries.

Of course there will be pushback. As in non-stop demonization of neo-Orwellian China for straying away from the whole purpose of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies – which is to have freedom from a centralized structure via decentralized ownership. There will be howls of horror at the PBOC potentially capable of seizing anyone’s digital funds or turning off a wallet if the owner displeases the CCP.

China is on it, but the U.S., UK, Russia and India are also on their way to launch their own crypto-currencies. For obvious reasons, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the Central Bank of Central Banks, is very much aware that the future is now. Their research with over 50 Central Banks is unmistakable: we are facing an “impending arrival”. But who will take the Biggest Prize?

(Republished from Strategic Culture Foundation by permission of author or representative)

感觉就是央行版支付宝。

咋牛B就不懂了

央行推出数字货币，有助于绕开美元结算体系，这是怎么推出的结论？背后的逻辑在哪里？我一直没想通。

另外，对个人而言，数字货币的推行将有哪些影响？

据张捷（@谁是谁非任评说）说，数字货币依赖网络，网络的根服务器在美国。如果美国想做点什么，怎么办？

请熟悉网络的大牛解释一下，现在我国的网络能不能独立自主。

没内么些金子

你是说DNS服务器？

DNS的root servers大部分属于美国公司控制, 我看到有荷兰和瑞典的公司

https://www.iana.org/domains/root/server

但这是国家机密，所以谁知道呢？中国对外公布大概是1948吨

https://new.qq.com/omn/20200428/20200428A05V7200.html

我个人觉得这数字与中国的核武数字一样，是绝密，呵呵

民间黄金数量的估计

2010年，全球已开zhidao采的黄金是16.3万吨，未开采的是2.6万吨。16.3万吨中有51%是首饰消费，占内比是51%，为8.36万吨，各国央行储备占比是19%，为2.87万吨，工业容占比12%，为1.97万吨，投资占比是17%，为2.73万吨。

我们根据上面的数据估算一下，首饰金，也就是民间黄金的最大持有国是中国、印度，这两个国家的黄金文化十分昌盛。

设两国以外的其他国家持有的黄金也占一份，8.36/3=2.79(万吨）

这就是我国国内民间黄金持有量的估计数。

SWIFT是美国掌握的全球美元清算体系，可以开除一个国家使用美元的权力

美国如果开除中国中资的美元使用权就是当场自杀，但是他们可以用各种理由禁止部分公司银行，比如禁止某个中国公司，可以说直接掌握了生死。

用数字人民币可以绕过这个清算体系，数字人民币直接经过央行的区块链数据服务器交易结算，小到路边奶茶，大到公司收购和大宗商品，数据与流程可独立于美国。

2016年时，井底望天就说，中国拥有超过三万吨黄金了。

还是搬一点张捷的看法。