主题：闲看人民币外汇政策改革 -- MRandson

今天看新闻，人民币外汇政策开始改革了。

简单看了看这次改革的特点，一是改盯一篮子货币，二是怎么盯保密，三是资本市场继续不开放。

在下曾经认为中国外汇政策必须在四点目标中找平衡：一，避免金融危机；二是保持稳定的贸易和直接投资；三是减少紧盯美元，外汇储备美元为主的潜在危机；四是为国内金融改革创造机会，为将来成为亚洲主导货币奠定基础。

不开放资本市场是为了避免金融危机，这次改革中这点没有动。汇率却由原来的盯死改为盯一篮子，这里面就有学问了。

这一篮子究竟包括什么？怎么算？对不起，无可奉告。有人推测是美元为主，日元欧元为辅。在下看这里面灵活性就很大了，今天可以把日元算里面，明天可以把日元踢出去，当然把美元踢出去也不是没有可能。在下甚至怀疑是否真有那么一篮子货币存在。这样的好处是根据中国经济需要想升就升，想贬就贬。8。1观察一段，好的话，也许进一步变成7。8，不合适的话，还可以变回8。2。不过这一变回去，可能就要交若干个亿的学费。

原先人民币一直存在的隐患之一是一旦美元狂贬人民币怎么摘钩。到时候，不摘，人民币一起贬值；摘，恐怕就给那些被美元套牢的资本一个逃跑的窗口，恐怕损失更大。人民币就要被美元劫持了。

现在趁美元相对走强的时候摘钩，把这个问题轻易化解了。

这次改革让原来固定的汇率更有灵活性。

这次改革在下认为是势在必行，但是这次改革的时机在下却不看好。

升值预期更高，只怕没有人会相信央行只升值一次。外汇储备压力肯定会更大。自己还嫌楼市不够热？

德国马克升值过程伴随着德国产业升级和紧缩的货币政策，中国现在能做到哪一条？

让人在主观上感觉中国经济受不了美国压力，自己损害人民币的信用，将来怎么承担亚洲货币领导的担子？

起码再等几个月，等房地产泡沫回落一些，美国在鼓噪几个月，让大家充耳不闻的时候再调整，也比现在心急火燎地调整要好嘛。

当然，如果央行认为美元危机迫在眉睫，难得有机会美元走强，可以和美元摘钩是另一回事。

关于以后人民币的走势，在下不敢随便预测。不过如果那位有外汇管理局的朋友，倒是不妨多联系，他们的信息，可以让你在短期成为百万富翁。

不过，你的朋友恐怕就要承担被请去喝咖啡的风险了。

抛砖而已，希望引玉。

还想找出者一揽子货币的比重，无果。

如果真的如你所说，比重保密的话，比原来还不透明：原来和美元比价一定，其他货币也确定。现在其他货币的定价也变为自己控制。不知现在对欧元和日元的比价多少？这个兑换率是多久更新一次？

我担心这样更不透明的汇率机制，对普通商业人员来说，是否风险更大？正如你末尾所说，如果知道内幕消息，有更多的手段获利,热钱炒作的可能性更高。

The goal of China’s exchange rate policy

Chinese exchange rate policy must submit Chinese economy policy goal, to understand Chinese economy policy goal must understand Chinese economy.

There are two major processes of China’s economic reform: urbanization and capitalization. There are eight problems of Chinese macro-economics: the social instability caused by the process of capital accumulation, the instability future of the workers, the shortage of economy regulations, low technology of production, the shortage of crude material, the problem of finance, the destitute government and the unfriendly international political environment.

Make society stable is the most important thing for China, if there is a revolution or an impetuous alteration in China’s economy or political, every thing will not guaranteed. The major goal for China’s economy policy is under the stable situation, try to develop quickly.

For China’s exchange rate policy, to reduce the possibility of financial crisis caused by international capital liquidity is the most important. If a financial crisis breakout, there must be a commotion. Consider of what happened in Ukraine and other former USSR country, a revolution manipulate by foreign country is inevitable.

To reduce the unemployment are the important thing for China’s economy policy. Caused by the instability of the expectation reform, domestic demand is insufficiency, so keep export trade and the FDI (foreign directional investment) stabile for reducing unemployment are vital.

China’s exchange rate policy should make equilibrium between these two goals.

US deficit has become a large problem for international financial system, dollar are more and more unstable. Most China’s foreign reserve are US dollar, there is high risk. To reduce these risks is also should be thought for China’s exchange rate policy.

To prepare for the leader of the East Asian area is also need be thought. To create an environment for reforming China’s finical system is also need be considered for China’s exchange rate policy. Since the reform, there is lager number bad debt accumulated in China’s four major state own commercial banks. High saving rate caused by insufficient financial invest way add unexpected future, save these bank.

The lessons of the Southeast Asian financial crisis

Southeast Asian financial crisis destroy the economy of Southeast Asian country. Some scholars said the only reason China survive the crisis is that China did not open capital market for foreign investors.

After these studies, we can draw a conclusion that, under the free capital market, cause by the volatile international capital, the absent of special product and service, and low credibility, the demand of a developing country currency is unstable. It is difficult to keep a stable value for these currencies.

To make the currency value stable, these countries often peg their currency with US dollar. Peg with US dollar make their export trade stable but their currency vulnerable. It is drink poisoned wine to alleviate thirst. Every time US increase saving rate, the export of these countries will decrease, but the value of their currency will increase. It is time for speculators.

The lessons of the appreciations of Japanese yen and Germany mark

After the WWII, cause by the revival of economy, Japanese yen and Germany mark appreciated step by step in five decades. The appreciated Japanese yen cause bubble in real-estate and stock. Compare with yen Germany mark are more successful.

When a developing country becomes a developed country, caused by the increase of export productivity, the currency of the country will appreciate. Most low technical and labour concentrate productive industry will emigrate to other developing country. Company with this course, job opportunity for unskilled worker will decrease. To keep low unemployment rate, un-independent central bank have to keep loose monetary policy

Because there is expectation of appreciation, foreign capital will flow into these new flourish countries. Foreign capital combines with loose monetary policy, there will be bubble in real-estate and stock market. Sooner or later, the bubble will collapse, the economy will recession.

Should China open capital market now?

There is a large number capital flowing in the international capital market. To keep the value and increase steadily are important goal for the funding managers. These managers separate their investment to reduce risk. They do not have enough time and information to study their every investment. In many cases, they just flow the market tide. Some manager many be wise can realize the real value of their investment, but they also have to flow the tide of the market. If they do not flow the majority, they will be the loser, like in the bank bankruptcy. So in most cases, these capitals are volatile, and flow blindly.

To attract this capital, country should have well economy expectation and low political risk. When this capital came to one country, the cost of labour will increase, domestic service will flourish, and manufacturing will be stricken.

If there is no special product and service (high technical or some special local things) in this country, the demand of this currency for product and service of this country will decrease, but the demand for capital invest may still strong caused by insufficient information. It is an inducement for a financial crisis.

Cause by the expectation and insufficient information, the financial crisis is easy to infective. During the Southeast Asian financial crisis, even Singapore which has healthy financial system can not survive.

For China as a developing country open capital market, no matter whether has healthy finical system, is vulnerable for finical crisis. Today there is strong expectation for the appreciation of yuan, if China open capital market the result will be bubble at beginning (as Japan), then a financial crisis as the end (as Thailand).

The lessons of the euro

Monetary union provide a way for small economy entity to against inflation and financial crisis. Some scholars also suggest China should choice monetary union as an option.

Monetary union has strong ability to anti-inflation. But if the inflation is caused by crude material, it may cause long time recession, since the central bank of monetary union always are independent. The economy will suffer by inflation combine with recession.

Except UK, there is no abundant oil resource in Europe. Most part of oil that euro area consumed must be import for foreign countries. If Ukraine and other some former USSR country, which have abundant oil resource, join the euro area the situation may alleviate. But it needs time, and Russia does not like be compressed.

Today the oil price is high sensitive with the situation of Middle East. Caused by US invade Iraq, threaten Iran and the insurgent military force in Iraq, the oil price has been soar for more than two years. The euro area is suffering by high unemployment and inflation. And there is no evidence that the situation will calm down in short time. So it is no strange that Europe constitution was rejected in France.

More dangerous is that caused by the recession the fiscal deficit will increase, the accumulated fiscal deficit will damage the expectation of the euro credibility. If quite a number of investors lost their trust of euro, euro will demise. And all number of euro area will pay price for it.

If there is a strong political union in euro area situation may changed. This political union can strongly against US invade Iraq, intervene the situation of Middle East. However, since the UK is one of the triple major leaders of Europe Union and is not belonging to the euro area, so there can not form a strong political will to intervene the US military action in Middle East.

Furthermore, because that the euro born earlier than a strong political union, the integrative course will be more difficult. Actually, if study the history of Italy, Germany, and US, we can find the strong political union should set up before monetary union. Since every step to integrate, there are some number should sacrificed. If there is no a strong political union, every number hope other numbers will scarify, but not themselves.

Consider of that China can not bear high unemployment, the crude resource distribution, and the political background of Pacific-Asian countries, monetary union is not suitable for China.

For China the “capital control plus peg with US dollar” is the last bad exchange rate policy

China chose it not because it is best, but because it is the most safety and last bad.

The predicament of today

To China, toady’s exchange rate policy cause many problem.

High reserve of US dollar means a large number of seigniorage will lose.

High reserve means low return form the US TB. On one hand is China invest in US capital market, on the other hand China should pay high return for FDI.

High reserve also means insufficient consumption and investment. All resource will concentrate in export industry, domestic industry and service can not get enough resource to develop.

Cause by the over issue of US dollar, have too many US dollar reserve is dangerous. US dollar depreciate, China will lose a lot; US dollar collapse, China get nothing.

The sterilization also will cost a lot.

How to deal with today’s situation?

To encourage Chinese cooperate invest in foreign countries, especially in oil and crude resource exploit project, to reduce the pressure of high foreign reserve.

To impose export tax to some labour concentrate export industry.

To keep Chinese exchange rate policy stable, do not change too frequently or change caused by foreign political pressure, can make Chinese yuan more trustiness. It is important for yuan, if China want yuan to be the leader of the Asian currencies.

To make more economy and political cooperate with Middle East and Middle Asian countries can alleviate the shortage of crude oil.

To reform Chinese financial environment is also urgent.

英文不好，大家别见笑。

成功与否现在真不好说，在下看央行有试一把的想法。

资本不开放的前提下，外汇根本没有什么供需平衡的概念，做不到真正的浮动。说是浮动其实也就是按照国内经济政策需要决定汇率。

这次改革成功也好，交学费也好，都是一次尝试，毕竟现在尝试比美元狂跌的时候再尝试要好得多。

本来中央所有人的表态都表明,短期不会调利率.谁知道突然一下子,变了.相信因此而财产缩水或暴涨的人不少.不知道有没有专家解释一下为什么.以我对中国官场的了解,前段时间的升值舆论,现在看起来,多半是走漏了消息.

瞎猜.本人那点钱,利率变化不够我喝杯茶的.

中国日报网站消息：新华网消息 香港《成报》7日发表社评指出,美国对中国经济发展带来的影响心知肚明，只要人民币未来能成为区域货币，就意味着美元在该区域的影响力减弱，同时也标志着美国在该区域的利益受到削弱，在军事力量无法在中国施展，CIA颠覆活动又受到严重局限的情况下，美国目前对中国采取最直接的经济手段，就是最大限度利用美元武器引发人民币汇率波动，为此，搅乱人民币汇率稳定就成了美国目前最大的战略目标和战术运用。

随着中美、中欧纺织品贸易摩擦，以及G8财长会议7月初在英国召开，有关人民币汇率问题再次成为各界话题，美国国会不久前甚至扬言，如果人民币不配合美国要求在六个月内升值，将对中国出口到美国的产品征收27.5%的惩罚性关税。

　　很多人一直在问，人民币升值真的能解决中美贸易摩擦吗？人民币升值真的能降低美国贸易赤字吗？美国真的能从人民币升值条件下捞取到很多现实利益吗？请看美国人怎么说。

　　美国联储局主席格林斯潘已指出那是不可能的，美国贸赤不会因此而减少，美国货也不会因此而多销，反而有可能让美国消费者付出更昂贵的代价。美国白宫经顾会委员史瓦格更指出，美压逼人民币升值，其实乃是一种“屁股着火式的救火”。中国以廉价商品让美国消费者获利，中国所赚的美元又回流美国，缓和美国的利率、通胀，以及工资压力。若压逼人民币升值，美国从人民币上所得到的利益也自然会减少。

　　无助减美贸易逆差

　　美国前国务卿基辛格表示，在国际经济环境中，总是既有赢家也有输家，美国政府近来因外贸问题对大陆颇多指摘，其实是输家寻求保护的一种表现。只有通过适当途径解决贸易逆差问题，才能够创造一个平和的气氛来处理人民币升值问题。

　　美国参议员格拉斯里对美国向人民币施加升值压力直称之为“不假思索的抽搐式保护主义”。美国霸菱资产管理(BAM)称，人民币升值重估对美国贸易逆差将几无影响。诺贝尔经济学奖得主斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)认为，很多美国人认为，如果人民币升值，有助于美国缩小巨大的贸易和财政赤字，但事实并非如此。

　　美国财经专家小白赛克(William Pesek Jr.)指对人民币汇率施压，“是一种夹杂了嫉妒、恐惧与恨意的心态……它是很棒的政治操作，但却是很烂的经济学。”既然人民币升值对美国现实经济没有任何“利好”，也无助于美国改变“双贸易赤字”，可是美国又为何三番五次对人民币施加升值压力呢？

　　笔者一直认为，人民币汇率之所以没有随着美国及外国压力大幅升值，特别是北京高层对维持人民币汇率稳定的反复强调，除了国家现实利益考量外，再就是中国发展的战略利益考量。

　　我们知道，东盟10＋1正在紧锣密鼓地进行，随着东盟自由贸易的逐渐形成，区内贸易势必发生货币结算问题，在亚元尚未出现的情况下，东盟自由贸易区的货币结算有如下选择：美元、欧元、日圆及人民币。对中国而言，身为东盟自由贸易区的主要成员，最大期望是区内贸易能用人民币结算，用前美国斯坦福大学教授刘遵义的话说，人民币不仅会逐渐成为东亚最强货币，也会像欧元一样成为“半储备”货币。

　　人民币要想达到如上目的，最基本的条件，就是要保持人民币汇率稳定，无论是1998年亚洲金融风暴，还是今日人民币顶住压力拒绝升值，都是保持人民币汇率稳定的重要体现。如果人民币汇率经常波动，不仅将来难以说服东盟成员让人民币成为结算货币，而且也不利于中国经济发展。

　　阻华成东盟主轴

　　美国目前要做的，就是最大能力制造人民币汇率波动，降低人民币在东盟各国的威信，从而降低人民币成为东盟10＋1自由贸易结算货币的可能性。这就是美国反复要求人民币升值的真正原因。

　　因为只有人民币时升、时贬，才符合美国的最大利益，只有人民币被排斥在东盟10+1自由贸易区货币结算之外，才符合美国的战略选择。众所周知，美国对世界各地施加影响力的手段不外三种：一是战争，对不听话、且无力对抗美国军事的小国、弱国，动不动就进行军事干预，用军事手段强行推翻不听话国家政权；二是利用CIA进行颠覆行为；三是利用美元动摇别国根基。

　　以上三种手段，美国在不同时空下，都与中国“切磋”过，几乎都没有达到美国想要的目的，今次重新采取美元战略强攻人民币汇率，只不过是美国在新时空条件下，如何牵制中国、强化美国利益最大化的国际战略而已。

　　如果美国不能在未来时间内迫使人民币汇率“忽上、忽下”、“波动不断”，势必未来要面对人民币成为东盟10＋1自由贸易结算货币现实。这样的结果将表明，随着人民币在东盟10＋1自由贸易区作为结算货币的数量增加，就意味着该区域利用美元结算(包括储备)的机会减少，如此结果，不仅美国的直接经济利益受到影响，而且美国在东盟的战略利益也会面临挑战，这就是美国政客齐声对人民币汇率狂吼的深层原因。

　　美元本位需检讨

　　众所周知，全世界只有美国是唯一一个没有“外汇储备”的国家，美国人为什么可以“不劳而获”、坐享全世界价廉物美的好处，靠的就是“美元兑换”利器，以中国大陆为例，每年向美国输送不计其数的廉价优质产品，让美国人民不用劳动就可以享受高品质服务，这些优质产品换回来的并不是美国的高科技产品和技术，也不是美国的友好态度，换回来的只不过是美元而已。换回来的美元又再用于购买美国债券，用于支持美国经济发展。如果美国开放对中国高科技产品出口――用类似“一架飞机换八亿件衬衣”的方法，相信中美贸易逆差立刻可以解决。

　　至于美国为何是全球唯一一个没有外汇储备的国家，这既是一个历史问题，也是一个现实问题，随着国际局势的变化，特别是欧元经济区的建立、成长和中国经济不断发展，已经到了应该重新检讨的时候了。在美元主导的国际金融环境下，美国经常通过操纵美元汇率，直接或者间接调控国际贸易，并以此来解决美国国内的问题。所谓的人民币汇率问题，近期看，是美国经济发展目前遭遇到前所未有的问题，企图将美国6170亿美元的贸易赤字归咎于美国对中国的贸易逆差，试图通过调整国际汇率，迫使人民币升值，从而转嫁美国国内问题。长远来看，是中美战略“高手过招”问题。

　　干预汇率作武器

　　美国著名经济学家、诺贝尔奖获得者劳伦斯-克莱因(Lawrence Klein)教授6月25日在墨西哥参加联合国世界联接模型(Project LINK)2005年春季会议时表示：非常赞成刘遵义和约瑟夫-斯蒂格利茨最近发表在英国《金融时报》上文章的观点，即中国现在不应当考虑放弃盯住美元的汇率制度。从任何意义上来说，维持现在的汇率制度没有甚么不合适或不合法的，中国需要对外开放经济，也需要打击投机活动。美国贸易表现很差，这是一个由美国内部的决策所引起的问题，应该由美国自己来调整。

　　美国对中国经济发展带来的影响心知肚明，只要人民币未来能成为区域货币，就意味着美元在该区域的影响力减弱，同时也标志着美国在该区域的利益受到削弱，在军事力量无法在中国施展，CIA颠覆活动又受到严重局限的情况下，美国目前对中国采取最直接的经济手段，就是最大限度利用美元武器引发人民币汇率波动，为此，搅乱人民币汇率稳定就成了美国目前最大的战略目标和战术运用。

我最关心的还是中国楼市的变化，感觉这个是对老百姓实实在在的影响，一个不健康的房地产市场感觉比通胀还可怕，现在中国的房价是导致贫富差距显著，大批不管是什么领生活质量严重降低的重要原因，现在看来人民币这个时候以这种方法升值对房地产的影响还是负面的。

钉住一揽子货币，日元升不升？欧元升不升？把盯住中国的眼光转移出去，要升就一起担着好了。

热钱进来炒什么？楼市？调控。债市？早就炒高了。股市？你敢。只能放床底下了。

而且达不到央行的出人意料的目的。你看前面几次，央行都是开始死硬顶着，说一定什么什么的，不会屈服于压力，到最后比较好的时机都过去了，没那么多注意力的时候，他还是改了。

前面只是突出独立性，晃悠那些老百姓，他们反正也对这些经济分析不是很了解。