主题：开个中国铝业的贴长期关注，决定将持有的包铝转成中铝 -- 陈经

是12月要降价15%左右（45->38）。理由如下

* Following 2006's revenue gain of 67%, we project a 12% revenue increase in 2007. Our estimate reflects our expectation for an increase in the volume of shipments of both alumina and aluminum along with a slightly higher average aluminum price. The slower rate of sales gain we see in 2007 compared with 2006 reflects our view that the forecasted rise in the aluminum price in 2007 will be less robust compared with the aluminum price rise experienced in 2006 from 2005. The price of aluminum (basis the London Metal Exchange), averaged $1.16 per pound in 2006 versus $0.86 in 2005. We look for an average price of $1.20 in 2007.

* Penalized by margin contraction in both alumina and aluminum along with increased energy costs and dilution from the issuance of 1.5 billion new shares, we project a decrease in earnings per ADS to $2.88 in 2007, from earnings per ADS of $3.20 in 2006.

* For the longer term, we believe ACH's sales and EPS will benefit from consolidation of the highly fragmented aluminum industry in China, aluminum industry consolidation in the rest of the world, and acquisitions.

希望中包互动有好结果……