主题：【原创】历史的假设：若二战中德军不首先进攻苏联 -- 天火

當時蘇聯是預備在七月進攻德國。所以雖然大量蘇軍在東線，但所有軍隊都是採取進攻部署。這形成在六月德軍的突然進攻，蘇軍措手不及，而致大敗。

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至於德蘇之間發生戰爭，早在斯太林所料之內。斯太林的算盤是待德國與西方各國打個筋疲力盡，蘇軍作為「漁人」可鷸蚌兼收，那是將共產主義帶進西歐最省力的方法。由於有這算計，蘇聯才於1939年與德國議和。據現時流傳的斯太林於1939年向政治局解釋德蘇和約的講話，斯太林說：

The question of war and peace has entered a critical phase for us. Its solution depends entirely on the position which will be taken by the Soviet Union. We are absolutely convinced that if we conclude a mutual assistance pact with France and Great Britain, Germany will back off from Poland and seek a modus vivendi with the Western Powers. War would be avoided, but further events could prove dangerous for the USSR.

On the other hand, if we accept Germany's proposal, that you know, and conclude a non-aggression pact with her, she will certainly invade Poland, and the intervention of France and England is then unavoidable. Western Europe would be subjected to serious upheavals and disorder. In this case we will have a great opportunity to stay out of the conflict, and we could plan the opportune time for us to enter the war.

The experience of the last 20 years has shown that in peacetime the Communist movement is never strong enough for the Bolshevik Party to seize power. The dictatorship of such a Party will only become possible as the result of a major war.

Our choice is clear. We must accept the German proposal and, with a refusal, politely send the Anglo-French mission home.

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雖然對這講話的真確性尚有爭議。我認為切合對時的局勢，這個講話的真確性甚高。

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