主题：12/17/2009 Market View -- 宁子

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX: 49.84; -2.53

VXN: 48.04; -2.18

VXO: 52.24; -1.92

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.84; -0.07

NASDAQ

Stats: -10.58 points (-0.67%) to close at 1579.31

Volume: 2.147B (-3.87%). Elevated from the prior week but lower than on the Tuesday gain so the price/volume action remains positive for the upside. It is still too low to show a real swell in strength that you would like to see. Holidays are approaching so that is understandable, but that also makes this look like a Christmas rally.

Up Volume: 950.757M (-1.109B)

Down Volume: 1.185B (+1.04B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.05 to 1. Negative indices but positive breadth. Positive divergence showing continued underlying strength.

Previous Session: Advancers led 4.31 to 1

New Highs: 11 (+7)

New Lows: 75 (-14)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ rallied through the 50 day SMA (1584) on the high but could not hold the move, sliding back to close just below that level on the close. Lower trade, modest loss. It is still in good position to take on the 50 day EMA (1636), but we just have to be patient to let it digest the Tuesday move and news and let it make its move.

SOX (-0.16%) was a relative strength leader. It tapped at the 50 day EMA on the high and backed off but was flat on the session. That 225 level has a couple of resistance layers and SOX may need a couple of days of lateral movement to rev up enough to break on through, but the chips have returned to life.

NASDAQ 100 (-1.42%) lost twice as much as NASDAQ, but it remains in very good shape to make this higher low and take on its 50 day EMA.

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg

SP500/NYSE

Stats: -8.76 points (-0.96%) to close at 904.42

NYSE Volume: 1.34B (-12.97%). Quite a drop off in volume so no dumping, just some post-surge profit taking.

Up Volume: 626.63M (-819.524M)

Down Volume: 693.463M (+607.265M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.37 to 1. Positive breadth despite losses in SP500, DJ30. The small and mid-caps were positive and thus the positive breadth.

Previous Session: Advancers led 6.4 to 1

New Highs: 38 (0)

New Lows: 72 (-9)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

A very modest pullback to close at the 50 day SMA on very light trade. SP500 is at the early December high, taking a day off after Tuesday, eying the 50 day EMA (931), the next key point to break. May take another session of sizing it up to get going, but it is in good position.

SP600 (+1.09%) led the market Wednesday, clearing the 50 day SMA and the early December high. It also needs to clear the 50 day EMA and is setting up to do it. Will likely move when the other indices are ready to try again as well. Want to see it out in the lead as it does.

SP600 Chart: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.JPEG

SP400 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP400.jpeg

DJ30

The Dow looked at the 50 day EMA (8983) again but did not try to pass. Volume fell sharply from the average trade on Tuesday. Modest loss by the standards of the harsh September to November selling. Some financial station announcers are complaining or confounded by this, but what this is to us is another positive element of the new found strength in this recovery. It may take the Dow another day or two, but it is in good position to make the break over the 50 day EMA.

Stats: -99.8 points (-1.12%) to close at 8824.34

VOLUME: 239M shares Wednesday versus 337M shares Tuesday. Sharp drop-off in volume on the pause, just what you want to see.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg