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主题:12/17/2009 Market View -- 宁子
Initial jobless claims (558K expected), Leading Economic Indicators (-0.5% expected), and the Philly Fed (-40.0) are all out Thursday, the last reports of the week. There will be the usual affairs no doubt, including earnings warnings and analyst opinions. The dollar, oil along with LIBOR and credit spreads are in the mix as well.
In short, the same issues facing the market each day. The rally has remained intact nonetheless and the price/volume action and leadership suggest it will remain that way barring some new and unexpected bad event.
That means we are looking for the Wednesday pullback to continue and lead into a new bounce where DJ30, SP400, SP600 and company attempt to take out the next resistance at the 50 day EMA. We are going to use the pullback to monitor stocks that surged and are testing back to near support, setting up for the next move. Leadership continues to set up and improve, and as good stocks break higher we will continue to move in and buy. This surge allowed us to take some nice profits, and the pullback will reload some positions so we can ride the next rebound to some more gains.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1579.31
Resistance:
1603 is the December peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
The 50 day EMA at 1637
1644 from August 2003
1752 from 2004
1782 from August 2004
1786 is the November 2008 high
Support:
1565 is the second low in October 2008
1542 is the early October 2008 low
The 10 day EMA is 1539
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
The 18 day EMA at 1531
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1499.21 is the 2008 closing low
1493 is the October 2008 low. Key low.
1428 is the November 2008 low
1398 is the early December 2008 low
1387 is the 2001 low
1295 is the November 2008 low
1253 is the March 2003 low on the test of the rally off the 2002 bear market low
1108 is the 2002 low
S&P 500: Closed at 904.42
Resistance:
919 is the early December peak
The 50 day EMA at 931
965 is the 2003 consolidation low
995 from June 2003 consolidation peak
1008 is the November 2008 peak
1065 is the Q4 2003 level that SP500 started the run to 2007 after the first run in the recovery.
Support:
899 is the early October closing low
896 is the late November 2008 peak
889 is an interim 2002 peak
The 10 day EMA at 886
The 18 day EMA at 882
866 is the second October 2008 low
853 is the July 2002 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
839 is the early October 2008 low
815 is the early December 2008 low
818 is the November 2008 low
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
768 is the 2002 bear market low
741 is the November 2008 low
650 on the top and 625 on the bottom of a 7 month range in 1996
475 from 1994 where the market moved laterally for the entire year.
Dow: Closed at 8824.34
Resistance:
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
The 50 day EMA at 8983
9200 is the July peak in the 2003 consolidation
9323 From June 2003 peak
9575 from September 2003, May 2001
9654 is the November 2008 peak
Support:
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
The 50 day SMA at 8715 stopped the Dow all last week & we will see if it acts as support now
The 10 day EMA at 8691
The 18 day EMA at 8650
8626 from December 2002
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8451 is the early October closing low. Key level to watch.
8141 is the early December low
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
7965 is the November 2008 intraday low.
7882 is the early October 2008 low. Key level to watch.
7702 is the July 2002 low
7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low
7449 is the November 2008 low
7282 is the October 2002 low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
December 15 - Monday
December NY Empire State Index (8:30): -25.8 actual versus -27.0 expected, -25.4 prior
Net Foreign Purchases, October (9:00): $1.5B actual versus $65.4B prior (revised from $66.2B)
Capacity Utilization, November (9:15): 75.4% actual versus 75.6% expected, 76.0% prior (revised from 76.4%)
Industrial Production, November (9:15): -0.6% actual versus -0.8% expected, 1.5% prior (revised from 1.3%)
December 16 - Tuesday
Core CPI, November (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, -0.1% prior
CPI, November (8:30): -1.7% actual versus -1.3% expected, -1.0% prior
Housing Starts, November (8:30): 625K actual versus 730K expected, 771K prior (revised from 791K)
November Building Permits (8:30): 616K actual versus 700K expected, 730K prior (revised from 708K)
December 17 - Wednesday
Crude oil inventories (10:30): 525K actual versus 600K expected, 400K prior
December 18 - Thursday
Initial Jobless claims (8:30): 558K expected, 537K prior
November Leading Economic Indicators (10:00): -0.5% expected, -0.8% prior
Philadelphia Fed, December (10:00): -40.0 expected, -39.3 prior
- 相关回复 上下关系5
🙂谢谢鼓励。 宁子 字18 2008-12-18 22:00:01
🙂THE ECONOMY 1 宁子 字6102 2008-12-17 22:29:33
🙂THE MARKET 1 宁子 字3760 2008-12-17 22:30:12
🙂THURSDAY
🙂THE PLAYS: 1 宁子 字4015 2008-12-17 22:31:23