主题：12/23/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside:

Play Date: 12/23/2008

FSLR (First Solar--$137.37; +4.36; optionable): Solar energy

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fslr.html

EARNINGS: Late January

STATUS: Cup. For lack of a better name we are calling this a cup over the past 7 weeks or you could call it something of a double bottom. It is rather eclectic, but it is a nonetheless in a base the past 13 weeks. It is one of the solar stocks that was revved up last week on the Obama stimulus package plans, clearing the 50 day EMA (137.73) on strong volume. It has since tested, coming back to tap the 10 day EMA on the Monday low (130.74) on very low, below average volume. Tuesday it tried the move over the 50 day but slid back, closing right at that level. Solid money flow is holding up nicely on the test. Looking for FSLR to rebound and move back through the 50 day EMA on some rising trade and give us the buy.

Volume: 3.001M Avg Volume: 5.147M

BUY POINT: $139.55 Volume=6M Target=$166.88 Stop=$132.31

POSITION: QHB CG - Mar. $135c (57 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fslr.html

Play Date: 12/23/2008

ITRI (Itron--$57.79; -0.69; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itri.html

EARNINGS: Late January

STATUS: Flying plateau. After the October and November tumble with the rest of the market ITRI formed up a 7 week reverse head and shoulders. It broke out at the end of the first week in December, surging on strong volume. It cleared the 50 day EMA (56.55) and then moved laterally on lower, below average volume. It is still working in a flat, low volume lateral move, and it still may take a couple more days, but ITRI is setting up well to continue its breakout run and there is a lot of room up to next resistance near 70. Solid money flow is moving higher ahead of the stock as it moves laterally. Looking very good.

Volume: 282.236K Avg Volume: 894.526K

BUY POINT: $59.91 Volume=1.2M Target=$69.91 Stop=$56.22

POSITION: IUP BL - Feb. $60c (48 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/itri.html

New buy point on a current position:

Play Date: 12/23/2008

RMBS (Rambus--$13.80; -0.96; optionable): Semiconductor memory chips

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmbs.html

EARNINGS: Third week of January

STATUS: Breakout test. Double bottomed in October and November then broke out to start December, racing up to the 200 day SMA (16.24) on that move. It is now testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA on Monday, and then tapping lower at the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday low (13.07). It surged up off the 18 day tap, moving on strong volume. Showing nice buying at that point. Looking to move in as RMBS continues the rebound off of this test. An early leader in the chip sector.

Volume: 4.668M Avg Volume: 2.515M

BUY POINT: $14.26 Volume=3.5M Target=$19.88 Stop=$12.97

POSITION: BNQ EP - May $14c (66 delta) or BNQ BO - Feb. $13c (66 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rmbs.html

Continuing plays ready to move:

Play Date: 12/22/2008

BBY (Best Buy--$26.46; -0.85; optionable): Electronics stores

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html

EARNINGS: 3-26-08

STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BBY shouldn't be acting so well given all of the negatives you hear, but it continues to set up, testing back a bit more on the Tuesday low, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the close. Low, low volume. Looking for it to make the break higher and give us the buy. To recap: BBY gapped higher last Tuesday, clearing the 50 day EMA (25.87) and something of a first handle in its 11 week base. Strong volume on that surge took BBY near 30, and then it started to the tests as the market made the test late last week. It is holding over the 10 day EMA (26.20) and the 50 day EMA on low, low volume. Looking for BBY to test the 10 day and then rebound. We want to catch it on the rebound on some better upside volume. It may not go all the way back, and if it does not we can must move in as it starts back up. Have a hunch it will come on back, however. Either way BBY is giving us a nice test to a nice pattern and in a market where retail is despised almost as much as the semiconductors. Yet the continue to perform.

Volume: 5.384M Avg Volume: 10.425M

BUY POINT: $26.77 Volume=14M Target=$33.92 Stop=$25.88

POSITION: BBY CE - Mar. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bby.html

Play Date: 12/22/2008

HMSY (HMS Holdings--$28.97; -0.03; optionable): Cost containment, payment accuracy services for govt. health care programs

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html

EARNINGS: 2-20-08

STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still in a nice test, tapping again at the 10 day EMA on the low (28.47) and rebounding to close flat on rising volume. Buyers stepping in on the test. Making a higher low and looking good for a new break higher. To recap: HMSY made is some nice coin on its November to early December run and has come back to test, bouncing off the 50 day EMA (26.55) and coming back up to test the December high. It is now making a new test, tapping the 10 day EMA on the Monday low (29.55). Looks to be making a higher low here in its 12 month base. Showing some really high upside volume to end last week, and looking for a good volume jump as HMSY makes a new upside surge.

Volume: 416.404K Avg Volume: 338.992K

BUY POINT: $29.68 Volume=500K Target=$35.91 Stop=$27.89

POSITION: QHT CE - Mar. $25c (75 delta, low OI) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hmsy.html

Play Date: 12/18/2008

NUE (Nucor--$43.02; +1.37; optionable): Steel and iron

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nue.html

EARNINGS: Mid-January

STATUS: Breakout test. Very nice doji on the 10 day EMA (42.25) Tuesday as NUE continues the nice lateral test on low volume. Nice action and just waiting for the break higher. To recap: An early leader in the rally, NUE formed an 11 week double bottom after its May to October selloff. Big breakout two weeks back and a run up through Wednesday. That gave us a nice gain and we took a part of it Wednesday. Thursday it tested back to near support at the 10 day EMA on lower, below average volume. Nice test and looking to pick up some more shares as NUE makes the next break higher. Solid money flow.

Volume: 4.642M Avg Volume: 9.905M

BUY POINT: $43.22 Volume=13M Target=$54.00 Stop=$41.82

POSITION: NUE DH - Apr. $40c (72 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nue.html