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主题：12/23/2009 Market View -- 宁子
家园 12/23/2009 Market View SUMMARY:
- Another soggy day as stocks cannot find any traction and no late rebound.
- More of the same puts market close to the point it needs to show a rebound.
- Many malign this market action, but it is still positive, and that in itself makes a couple of positives.
Investors still buying at the mall but not at the market.
Once more the market started positive yet again it gave up the gains. An early attempt to sell the gains was rebuffed as weak home sales data (-2.9% new homes, hitting a 17 year low, and -8.6% existing homes) was trumped by Michigan sentiment bubbling up to 60.1 versus the 59.1 in November and the 58.5 expected. That staved off the sellers, but they were back in a half hour, and they had help. Stocks tumbled into lunch. Another midday lateral move, another failed midday lateral consolidation. Stocks fell to new session lows by mid-afternoon. There was another last hour rally, but it was a piker compared to Monday. The indices recovered half to all of the mid-afternoon slump by the close, but that kept them well off the highs. Losses were modest yet again, but they are piling up to the downside. The indices did not violate the lows of the recent ranges, and after 5 down days on DJ30 and 4 of 5 on NASDAQ and SP500 the indices are a bit oversold. Thus far, however, there is no inkling of a bounce as investors seem to be at the stores this week buying versus the stock market.
TECHNICAL. Intraday the market gave away an early gain once more. Started higher, tested the 10 and 18 day EMA, faded back down. Not even a very good rebound late. Another lackluster day where the market could muster no traction.
INTERNALS. Breadth was passable, volume was insanely light. There is nothing nefarious about the action, just a lack of interest, something of a buyers strike or more appropriately, a buyers absence.
CHARTS. The indices continue sagging toward the bottom of the range, but they still have not violated it or the line from the October lows. After a week of downside still holding the range is not bad. Price/volume action remains solid with the low trade on the downside and rather modest price moves lower. There are simply no buyers interested this past week. Stocks are holding the recent range indeed, but they are at the point they need to step up and star the upside on this rally once more. Either this week or next it needs to occur as there is not a whole lot more downside room to give.
LEADERSHIP. Many solid stocks are still holding support eve with the Tuesday continued slouch, but there are also many showing the strain. Most are far from breaking down, but they are not showing the same nice, orderly testing to near support. Business services, metals, chips and retail remain in good pullbacks, but they are at points where they need to put in their moves. In short, there are still solid stocks in solid position, but they are approaching the point they need to make a new move.
家园 any idea about oil price?? 家园 通缩不解决，石油不会涨 等到大家都觉得石油低的离谱，好像全世界都不用石油了的时候，就该涨了。跟今年石油涨到140的时候是一个心理和道理。估计涨起来也快。我觉得哈，石油还得在三四十逛游个几个月。
家园 THE MARKET MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 45.02; +0.46
VXN: 43.29; +1.38
VXO: 46.93; +0.97
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.79; +0.04
NASDAQ
Stats: -10.81 points (-0.71%) to close at 1521.54
Volume: 1.311B (-20.73%). Holiday light and then some.
Up Volume: 395.327M (+35.193M)
Down Volume: 916.405M (-352.274M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.76 to 1. Still mild but NASDAQ is still sliding.
Previous Session: Decliners led 2 to 1
New Highs: 10 (+5)
New Lows: 109 (-6)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
Slipped through the 10 and 18 day EMA (1539, 1534) but is still easily holding the recent three week range and above the late October low at 1506. That is fine and dandy as long as it continues its lateral move on low trade and continues showing the good price/volume action. Has that early December peak to clear (1603) as well as the 50 day EMA (1622) along the way. It is getting to the lick log where it needs to continue the rally.
SOX (-2.80%) is really at the point it needs to hold as it is at the October low. Time for the chips to step up.
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -8.47 points (-0.97%) to close at 863.16
NYSE Volume: 984.406M (-19.28%). Extreme low volume as well.
Up Volume: 298.698M (+32.256M)
Down Volume: 662.744M (-280.34M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.56 to 1. Modest negative breadth as both the large and small caps were pretty much on par.
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.24 to 1
New Highs: 25 (-2)
New Lows: 82 (-12)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP500 slipped again but it is still in the three week range with a bottom near 850. That bottom is also coincident with the October closing low and a mid-December interim low. An orderly range from 850 to 915-20 with decent price/volume action. SP500 is getting to the bounce point. Question is, will it make a serious rebound to challenge the 50 day EMA (923) or just another bounce upside in the range. At this juncture we would take either.
SP600 (-1.38%) slipped as well but held right at the 18 day EMA on the close. That puts SP600 in a bit better position than most of the indices and if the small caps are going to lead and make the first break through the 50 day EMA, well, we can live with that. Small caps are early cycle economic stocks and they should lead the way higher or at least be a big part of the move higher.
SP600 Chart: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.JPEG
SP400 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP400.jpeg
DJ30
The blue chips lost ground for the fifth straight session on the heels of that strong surge the prior Tuesday. As with the other indices, volume has left the building and the Dow has lost traction. It gave up 8500 and the early October closing low, but it is still easily over the late October closing low and the early December bottom. It needs, however, to hold between here and that early December low at 8140 and make another higher low and use that to take on the 50 day EMA.
Stats: -100.28 points (-1.18%) to close at 8419.49
VOLUME: 174M shares Tuesday versus 211M shares Monday. The very light trade continues, and as with the other indices, that at least shows sellers are not surging in number, just a lack of buying interest.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
家园 WEDNESDAY Just a half session Wednesday, and there is just not a whole lot you can do with a half session. There are a few stocks we are looking at if they do make a move off of this test, but outside of that you simply don't want to get too active. What we want to see is the indices hold the line and start a long awaited Christmas bounce that takes it on into the end of the year.
What stocks? Looking to see if RMBS can provide a buy off of its test of the 18 day EMA following a solid surge off the November low. NUE is also a stock showing a very good testing progress. BBY is making a great test in a solid pattern. ITRI is set up beautifully. If they move we will move in.
This market right now has a lot of detractors. Cramer is on this week saying everyone is love with this market but that he hates it, ready for it to go lower. I don't know who he is talking to. Everyone I know hates the market or is, more importantly, just apathetic about it. They are so tired and beaten up they just don't have an opinion on it other than the old toss the hands in the air as a sign of, well, capitulation. Cramer was all buy after the TARP announcement only to see the market get crushed even more. Now he is negative on the market even as the market shows some strength and leadership it has not had since the start of the selling over a year ago.
It is somewhat reminiscent of the early 2003 market where 99.9% of the pundits said we had a bear market rally that was failing. What we saw, however, was a market working back and then laterally on very good price/volume action and solid stocks building solid bases. We kept saying through the weeks that the action was positive and at the least you did not want to short it. Right now the action is positive with low trade on the selling and overall positive price/volume action. The indices are holding their range. Leadership continues to hold up well on the lateral move. Sure it is just a microcosm of the 2002 surge and early 2003 test; we are still looking for the 2002 like rally to emerge out of this rally start. That does not change the theme, however, i.e. a good move off the lows, a good consolidation showing the right kind of technical action, and good leadership from small business services, some chips, some tech, some retail, some small industrial.
Thus while the frustration builds and others look for the dam to break we are being patient and looking for opportunity if it turns up. Sure the market could still go right on down. The best traders admit they are wrong as much as they are right, but they are ready to take advantage of opportunity when it shows up, snap it up, and move on. This market is just taking its time with a leisurely lateral stroll. It is still showing positive attributes so we are still going to look for a positive resolution. Indeed, the fact that many are negative on it is a positive in itself.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1521.54
Resistance:
The 18 day EMA at 1535
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
The 10 day EMA is 1539
1542 is the early October 2008 low
1565 is the second low in October 2008
1579 is the 50 day SMA that stalled NASDAQ last week
1603 is the December peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
The 50 day EMA at 1622
1644 from August 2003
1752 from 2004
1782 from August 2004
1786 is the November 2008 high
The 90 day SMA at 1835
Support:
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1499.21 is the 2008 closing low
1493 is the October 2008 low. Key low.
1428 is the November 2008 low
1398 is the early December 2008 low
1387 is the 2001 low
1295 is the November 2008 low
1253 is the March 2003 low on the test of the rally off the 2002 bear market low
1108 is the 2002 low
S&P 500: Closed at 863.16
Resistance:
866 is the second October 2008 low
The 18 day EMA at 880
The 10 day EMA at 880
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
The 50 day EMA at 923
965 is the 2003 consolidation low
995 from June 2003 consolidation peak
1008 is the November 2008 peak
1065 is the Q4 2003 level that SP500 started the run to 2007 after the first run in the recovery.
Support:
853 is the July 2002 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
839 is the early October 2008 low
815 is the early December 2008 low
818 is the November 2008 low
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
768 is the 2002 bear market low
741 is the November 2008 low
650 on the top and 625 on the bottom of a 7 month range in 1996
475 from 1994 where the market moved laterally for the entire year.
Dow: Closed at 8419.49
Resistance:
8451 is the early October closing low. Key level to watch.
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
The 10 day EMA at 8594
The 18 day EMA at 8604
8626 from December 2002
The 50 day SMA at 8684 stopped the Dow on the prior bounce
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
The 50 day EMA at 8916
8934 is the December closing high
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9200 is the July peak in the 2003 consolidation
9323 From June 2003 peak
9575 from September 2003, May 2001
9654 is the November 2008 peak
Support:
8141 is the early December low
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
7965 is the November 2008 intraday low.
7882 is the early October 2008 low. Key level to watch.
7702 is the July 2002 low
7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low
7449 is the November 2008 low
7282 is the October 2002 low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
December 23 - Tuesday
Q3 Chain Deflator-Final (8:30): 3.9% actual versus 4.2% expected, 4.2% prior
GDP-Final, Q3 (8:30): -0.5% actual versus -0.5% expected, -0.5% prior
Existing Home Sales, November (10:00): 4.49M actual versus 4.93 expected, 4.91 prior (revised from 4.98M)
Mich Sentiment-Revised, December (10:00): 60.1 actual versus 58.6 expected, 59.1 prior
New Home Sales, November (10:00): 407K actual versus 420K expected, 419K prior (revised from 433K)
December 24 - Wednesday
Initial Jobless claims (8:30): 558K expected versus 554K
November Durable Orders (8:30): -3.1% expected, -6.2% prior
Person Income, November (8:30): 0.0% expected, 0.3% prior
Personal Spending, November (8:30): -0.8% expected, -1.0% prior
Crude oil inventories (10:30): 525K prior
家园 THE PLAYS: Upside:
Play Date: 12/23/2008
FSLR (First Solar--$137.37; +4.36; optionable): Solar energy
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fslr.html
EARNINGS: Late January
STATUS: Cup. For lack of a better name we are calling this a cup over the past 7 weeks or you could call it something of a double bottom. It is rather eclectic, but it is a nonetheless in a base the past 13 weeks. It is one of the solar stocks that was revved up last week on the Obama stimulus package plans, clearing the 50 day EMA (137.73) on strong volume. It has since tested, coming back to tap the 10 day EMA on the Monday low (130.74) on very low, below average volume. Tuesday it tried the move over the 50 day but slid back, closing right at that level. Solid money flow is holding up nicely on the test. Looking for FSLR to rebound and move back through the 50 day EMA on some rising trade and give us the buy.
Volume: 3.001M Avg Volume: 5.147M
BUY POINT: $139.55 Volume=6M Target=$166.88 Stop=$132.31
POSITION: QHB CG - Mar. $135c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fslr.html
Play Date: 12/23/2008
ITRI (Itron--$57.79; -0.69; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itri.html
EARNINGS: Late January
STATUS: Flying plateau. After the October and November tumble with the rest of the market ITRI formed up a 7 week reverse head and shoulders. It broke out at the end of the first week in December, surging on strong volume. It cleared the 50 day EMA (56.55) and then moved laterally on lower, below average volume. It is still working in a flat, low volume lateral move, and it still may take a couple more days, but ITRI is setting up well to continue its breakout run and there is a lot of room up to next resistance near 70. Solid money flow is moving higher ahead of the stock as it moves laterally. Looking very good.
Volume: 282.236K Avg Volume: 894.526K
BUY POINT: $59.91 Volume=1.2M Target=$69.91 Stop=$56.22
POSITION: IUP BL - Feb. $60c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/itri.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 12/23/2008
RMBS (Rambus--$13.80; -0.96; optionable): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmbs.html
EARNINGS: Third week of January
STATUS: Breakout test. Double bottomed in October and November then broke out to start December, racing up to the 200 day SMA (16.24) on that move. It is now testing, coming back to the 10 day EMA on Monday, and then tapping lower at the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday low (13.07). It surged up off the 18 day tap, moving on strong volume. Showing nice buying at that point. Looking to move in as RMBS continues the rebound off of this test. An early leader in the chip sector.
Volume: 4.668M Avg Volume: 2.515M
BUY POINT: $14.26 Volume=3.5M Target=$19.88 Stop=$12.97
POSITION: BNQ EP - May $14c (66 delta) or BNQ BO - Feb. $13c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rmbs.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
Play Date: 12/22/2008
BBY (Best Buy--$26.46; -0.85; optionable): Electronics stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
EARNINGS: 3-26-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BBY shouldn't be acting so well given all of the negatives you hear, but it continues to set up, testing back a bit more on the Tuesday low, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the close. Low, low volume. Looking for it to make the break higher and give us the buy. To recap: BBY gapped higher last Tuesday, clearing the 50 day EMA (25.87) and something of a first handle in its 11 week base. Strong volume on that surge took BBY near 30, and then it started to the tests as the market made the test late last week. It is holding over the 10 day EMA (26.20) and the 50 day EMA on low, low volume. Looking for BBY to test the 10 day and then rebound. We want to catch it on the rebound on some better upside volume. It may not go all the way back, and if it does not we can must move in as it starts back up. Have a hunch it will come on back, however. Either way BBY is giving us a nice test to a nice pattern and in a market where retail is despised almost as much as the semiconductors. Yet the continue to perform.
Volume: 5.384M Avg Volume: 10.425M
BUY POINT: $26.77 Volume=14M Target=$33.92 Stop=$25.88
POSITION: BBY CE - Mar. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bby.html
Play Date: 12/22/2008
HMSY (HMS Holdings--$28.97; -0.03; optionable): Cost containment, payment accuracy services for govt. health care programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmsy.html
EARNINGS: 2-20-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still in a nice test, tapping again at the 10 day EMA on the low (28.47) and rebounding to close flat on rising volume. Buyers stepping in on the test. Making a higher low and looking good for a new break higher. To recap: HMSY made is some nice coin on its November to early December run and has come back to test, bouncing off the 50 day EMA (26.55) and coming back up to test the December high. It is now making a new test, tapping the 10 day EMA on the Monday low (29.55). Looks to be making a higher low here in its 12 month base. Showing some really high upside volume to end last week, and looking for a good volume jump as HMSY makes a new upside surge.
Volume: 416.404K Avg Volume: 338.992K
BUY POINT: $29.68 Volume=500K Target=$35.91 Stop=$27.89
POSITION: QHT CE - Mar. $25c (75 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hmsy.html
Play Date: 12/18/2008
NUE (Nucor--$43.02; +1.37; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nue.html
EARNINGS: Mid-January
STATUS: Breakout test. Very nice doji on the 10 day EMA (42.25) Tuesday as NUE continues the nice lateral test on low volume. Nice action and just waiting for the break higher. To recap: An early leader in the rally, NUE formed an 11 week double bottom after its May to October selloff. Big breakout two weeks back and a run up through Wednesday. That gave us a nice gain and we took a part of it Wednesday. Thursday it tested back to near support at the 10 day EMA on lower, below average volume. Nice test and looking to pick up some more shares as NUE makes the next break higher. Solid money flow.
Volume: 4.642M Avg Volume: 9.905M
BUY POINT: $43.22 Volume=13M Target=$54.00 Stop=$41.82
POSITION: NUE DH - Apr. $40c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nue.html