五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:【原创】中国高速铁道“1000亿元”的投标争论 -- xixi

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家园 对中国铁路,兄台还是应该多了解了解再说,呵呵

About question 2, the cost of the Technology Transferring. I am still doubting that 4-5 billion will be spended on Tech Transferring. About this, we can get more information if we know how much JR东日本 spended on its Tech research, and how much “光基铁道” will pay JR东日本 for Tech Transferring. And the case in Taiwan might help also. But I could not find enough data till now. (Hope somebody can hlep!)

台湾?

台湾高铁纯粹是被人坑了。

付出16000亿日元(约1200亿RMB),换来350公里的高速铁路。还没有任何技术转让,BOT模式交货。

不过台湾在国际上买东西,一向是这样吃亏的,买个军舰、战斗机,都要付出比行情高上无数的代价才能到手~~~~~

我们花了800亿日元(约60亿RMB),就买回了今后可以自行生产的许可证,比起台湾那不合算的合同来,要好不少了。

作为参靠,韩国的KTX(从法国引进的TGV高速铁路)工程,则是18700亿日元(超过1400亿RMB),换来420公里高速铁路,不过带有技术转让,而已。

Your Microsoft expamle, I think, will not apply here. Anything gets its reasonable price, if buyer would like to pay. I think these 4-5 billion is too much high---How much did Chinese government spend on Chinese own research? If they can invest these 4-5 billion in our own research, I think Chinese people can do it, right? even do not need to mention the money paid to France and Canada for the Tech!

上面举了韩国和台湾引进技术或让人家生产,连技术也不引进而修建高速铁路的代价,都超过我们现在投入的几十倍。这算是可以比较的行情了吧?

我们自己的确有自己开发的车组,不过上面判断还不能实用,有段时间无法自行解决的缺陷,因而才去买上一批外车,然后借本土生产之际偷学到关键的窍门,借以修正完善自己的技术。

About question 3.

From the political perspective, China should not consider Japanese companies at all. right? Even Germany is better.

u said:'法国人随时可能破产,而日本有随时可能跟我们翻脸."

Actually, from the political viewpoint, if Frech companies broke down, there would nothing important; but If Japanese government will break up with China anytime, why should China pay so much to buy goods from them?

尊驾可能误解我的意思了。

我说的是,不能把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。

坏掉一家,还有剩下两家撑着呢~~~~~~

除非同时出现与日本翻脸、法国TGV破产、加拿大人也不买我们帐了这种情况;

但只要我们那时候已经从三家技术中任意一家学到了我们想要的东西,就算发生这样的情况,我们也不会崩溃。而只买一家的产品和技术,风险就相对大了许多。

"你用二百五十亿大洋,就买一家的技术过来,你是不是觉得更亏?"

But from the beginning, we dont need to pay that much. If we buy tech from one company only, like Frech company, or even from our own copany, why should we pay that much for duplicate tech?

兄台一定没有好好看前面的讨论,顶楼的文章里就给出了法国、加拿大、日本等各家的报价。

单买法国的,他们要价5500亿日元(410亿RMB);

单买日本的,他们要价4200亿日元(315亿RMB)

单买加拿大,他们要价3900亿日元(295亿RMB)

我们如果从中选择一家单买,要付出那么多钱不说,技术也只能得到一家的,对不对?

现在支出250亿RMB左右,得到了三家不同的技术,有什么不合算的?

不明白阁下哪里不满意......

"如果对这三种技术的消化能在三五年内完成,今后国内铁路还有七万公里,"

I think, Japanese will play their tradtional tricks to control the business all over China. I dont think Chinese comanies can get rid of the control of Jpanese, to operate seperately. Take the history into consideration, u will not be surpprised. Japanese have never transferred the advanced tech to China,

这个就是阁下自己臆测的,或是听信网上仇日宣传的不负责发言了吧?

网上口头爱国者常常把日本卖给中国的“6K车”技术说成是“日本人居心叵测以次充好”的典型,而实际情况恰恰相反,80年代中期引进的日本6K机车和同时期引进的法国8K机车,很好地被我国铁路界引进消化吸收,成为了现在奔行在中国大地上电力机车的主力车型----韶山,这技术一用就是二十年。

技术这东西,水平相差太远,才可能被人算计;像铁路这样我们已经有了一定的内力修为的行业,可不是如汽车、航空业那样容易被蒙住的。

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