主题：【原创】美国人怎么退休？ -- 倥偬飞人

在美国叱咤风云的婴儿潮一代，7800万人，占美国人口的三分之一强，如今正在变成银发一族，面临退休的大问题。

老Ben今天发话了，特别直截了当地说：如果当今的社会保障和医疗体系不做大的改革，婴儿潮们将使得政府的预算和国家经济都面临很大的压力。（全文见下面）。

美国人一向花明天的钱，储蓄率低，就是没有考虑到如果明天没有钱了，怎么办？现在情况是：社会保障和医疗支出占到GDP的7%，而随着退休人士越来越多，到2030年将增加到13%，比现在增长85%！

要解决这个钱的问题，只有挖东墙补西墙，加税、减少其他方面的支出、减少退休福利、增加财政赤字（那就要增发更多的国债！）。老Ben此刻提出这个问题，也许就是为小布加税做个前奏，即使不加个人税，公司税可能是免不了的。也有经济学家估计美国人不得不提高储蓄率以应付退休等，这样消费乏力，经济的发展就会更一步放缓。

很多人都觉得有社保什么的，可以不用操心退休的事情。可惜往往事与愿违，哪个国家都会出现社保入不敷出，甚至挪作他用的情况，陈良宇下马也与这个问题有关。加拿大的所谓CPP(Canada Pension Plan)，据说迟早要破产。

俺从不相信政府能安排好个人的退休计划，无论什么政体都是这样。要退休的保障，靠别人不如靠自己。

老Ben说了：婴儿潮退休造成的财务上的影响非常大，而且不可避免！

Bernanke: Baby Boomers Will Strain U.S.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday the burden from retiring baby boomers will strain the nation's budget and economy, unless Social Security and Medicare are revamped.

"Reform of our unsustainable entitlement programs" should be a priority, Bernanke told the Economics Club of Washington. "The imperative to undertake reform earlier rather than later is great."

It was his strongest warning yet about the potential perils and tough decisions that will confront the United States with the looming retirement of 78 million baby boomers. Bernanke did not recommend any specific changes, however, that Congress and the Bush administration could make to entitlement programs.

President Bush once made his efforts to overhaul Social Security a centerpiece of his second-term agenda. But those efforts sputtered last year due to resistance from Republicans and Democrats alike.

Bernanke said that as the population ages, the United States will have to choose among higher taxes, fewer dollars for other programs, lower spending on entitlement programs, and a sharply higher budget deficit -- or some combination of all those.

Government spending for Social Security and Medicare alone will increase from about 7 percent of the U.S. economy to almost 13 percent by 2030, and to more than 15 percent by 2050, he said.

"The fiscal consequences of these trends are large and unavoidable," Bernanke said.

The government had a budget deficit of $319 billion last year, which the White House believes will fall to $296 billion this year.

Shoring up the finances of Social Security and Medicare will make for difficult choices, Bernanke said.

For instance, if the government tried to finance projected entitlement spending entirely by revenue increases, the taxes collected would have to rise from about 18 percent of the total size of the economy to about 24 percent in 2030, he said.

If the government attempted a fix through spending cuts, spending for programs other than Social Security and Medicare would need to fall sharply -- the equivalent of "a budget cut of approximately $700 billion in nonentitlement spending," he said.

With an aging population collecting Social Security and Medicare benefits, he said, it will "create severe fiscal challenges, as the cost of entitlement programs rises sharply."

Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, said he welcomed the Fed chief's message, even if it's not new.

"I don't believe Bernanke is telling anybody in my profession something we don't know. The federal government has on the table essentially unsustainable promises to the aging population," Prakken said.

Bernanke did not discuss the future path that interest rates might take in his speech or his brief remarks afterward.

Fielding questions, Bernanke said a "substantial correction" was taking place in the housing market. He estimated the housing slowdown would trim about 1 percentage point off economic growth in the second half of this year.

But the fallout from the cooler housing market should be cushioned by other positive factors, including good job creation and income growth, Bernanke added.

The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for Oct. 24-25. Many economists believe the policymakers will leave rates unchanged for the third meeting in a row.

With the economy slowing, the central bank in August decided to halt -- for the first time -- a two-year campaign to boost interest rates to fend off inflation. Policymakers suggested the cooling economy eventually would lessen inflation pressures.

There has been relief on the inflation front as once-surging energy prices settled down. Gasoline prices, which topped $3 a gallon in summer, slid and now average $2.31 a gallon, the Energy Department said.

Bernanke welcomed the recent drop in energy prices, but said that Fed policymakers will keep an eye on inflation, which "is still above what we would consider price stability."

Bernanke also said he and his colleagues would try to improve the central bank's communications to Wall Street and Main Street. Bernanke, a respected economist who spent much of his professional life in academia, took over the Fed from longtime chairman Alan Greenspan in February.

"It is a sobering experience," Bernanke said of his eight months on the job.