主题：【原创】美国人怎么退休？ -- 倥偬飞人
家园 【原创】美国人怎么退休？ 在美国叱咤风云的婴儿潮一代，7800万人，占美国人口的三分之一强，如今正在变成银发一族，面临退休的大问题。
老Ben今天发话了，特别直截了当地说：如果当今的社会保障和医疗体系不做大的改革，婴儿潮们将使得政府的预算和国家经济都面临很大的压力。（全文见下面）。
美国人一向花明天的钱，储蓄率低，就是没有考虑到如果明天没有钱了，怎么办？现在情况是：社会保障和医疗支出占到GDP的7%，而随着退休人士越来越多，到2030年将增加到13%，比现在增长85%！
要解决这个钱的问题，只有挖东墙补西墙，加税、减少其他方面的支出、减少退休福利、增加财政赤字（那就要增发更多的国债！）。老Ben此刻提出这个问题，也许就是为小布加税做个前奏，即使不加个人税，公司税可能是免不了的。也有经济学家估计美国人不得不提高储蓄率以应付退休等，这样消费乏力，经济的发展就会更一步放缓。
很多人都觉得有社保什么的，可以不用操心退休的事情。可惜往往事与愿违，哪个国家都会出现社保入不敷出，甚至挪作他用的情况，陈良宇下马也与这个问题有关。加拿大的所谓CPP(Canada Pension Plan)，据说迟早要破产。
俺从不相信政府能安排好个人的退休计划，无论什么政体都是这样。要退休的保障，靠别人不如靠自己。
老Ben说了：婴儿潮退休造成的财务上的影响非常大，而且不可避免！
Bernanke: Baby Boomers Will Strain U.S.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday the burden from retiring baby boomers will strain the nation's budget and economy, unless Social Security and Medicare are revamped.
"Reform of our unsustainable entitlement programs" should be a priority, Bernanke told the Economics Club of Washington. "The imperative to undertake reform earlier rather than later is great."
It was his strongest warning yet about the potential perils and tough decisions that will confront the United States with the looming retirement of 78 million baby boomers. Bernanke did not recommend any specific changes, however, that Congress and the Bush administration could make to entitlement programs.
President Bush once made his efforts to overhaul Social Security a centerpiece of his second-term agenda. But those efforts sputtered last year due to resistance from Republicans and Democrats alike.
Bernanke said that as the population ages, the United States will have to choose among higher taxes, fewer dollars for other programs, lower spending on entitlement programs, and a sharply higher budget deficit -- or some combination of all those.
Government spending for Social Security and Medicare alone will increase from about 7 percent of the U.S. economy to almost 13 percent by 2030, and to more than 15 percent by 2050, he said.
"The fiscal consequences of these trends are large and unavoidable," Bernanke said.
The government had a budget deficit of $319 billion last year, which the White House believes will fall to $296 billion this year.
Shoring up the finances of Social Security and Medicare will make for difficult choices, Bernanke said.
For instance, if the government tried to finance projected entitlement spending entirely by revenue increases, the taxes collected would have to rise from about 18 percent of the total size of the economy to about 24 percent in 2030, he said.
If the government attempted a fix through spending cuts, spending for programs other than Social Security and Medicare would need to fall sharply -- the equivalent of "a budget cut of approximately $700 billion in nonentitlement spending," he said.
With an aging population collecting Social Security and Medicare benefits, he said, it will "create severe fiscal challenges, as the cost of entitlement programs rises sharply."
Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, said he welcomed the Fed chief's message, even if it's not new.
"I don't believe Bernanke is telling anybody in my profession something we don't know. The federal government has on the table essentially unsustainable promises to the aging population," Prakken said.
Bernanke did not discuss the future path that interest rates might take in his speech or his brief remarks afterward.
Fielding questions, Bernanke said a "substantial correction" was taking place in the housing market. He estimated the housing slowdown would trim about 1 percentage point off economic growth in the second half of this year.
But the fallout from the cooler housing market should be cushioned by other positive factors, including good job creation and income growth, Bernanke added.
The Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for Oct. 24-25. Many economists believe the policymakers will leave rates unchanged for the third meeting in a row.
With the economy slowing, the central bank in August decided to halt -- for the first time -- a two-year campaign to boost interest rates to fend off inflation. Policymakers suggested the cooling economy eventually would lessen inflation pressures.
There has been relief on the inflation front as once-surging energy prices settled down. Gasoline prices, which topped $3 a gallon in summer, slid and now average $2.31 a gallon, the Energy Department said.
Bernanke welcomed the recent drop in energy prices, but said that Fed policymakers will keep an eye on inflation, which "is still above what we would consider price stability."
Bernanke also said he and his colleagues would try to improve the central bank's communications to Wall Street and Main Street. Bernanke, a respected economist who spent much of his professional life in academia, took over the Fed from longtime chairman Alan Greenspan in February.
"It is a sobering experience," Bernanke said of his eight months on the job.
家园 从来没有救世主，一切只能靠自己 花这句：
俺从不相信政府能安排好个人的退休计划，无论什么政体都是这样。要退休的保障，靠别人不如靠自己。
家园 现在公司的退休金都改define contribution了 我进公司的时候，还是define benefit，后来改define contribution的时候，花我们说后者如何好，我们可以convert，结果没人convert。哈哈，我们不都是傻瓜。
加拿大的CPP几乎可以肯定20年后我们最需要的时候会付不出钱来，指望不得。
家园 听说cpp现在就已经入不敷出了 等到我们退休那时候，有钱发的话也不够吃饭的
家园 其实我觉的CPP入不敷出是正常现像，现在对这个情况的恐惧有些过份 因为入不敷出主要是指当期供入CPP的钱少于当期从CPP里面提取的钱，考虑到婴儿潮一代是北美历史上最大的一个劳工群体，而现在供CPP的劳动力人口少于当时情况，CPP现在的入不敷出应该是正常的。因为现在CPP里面的钱连本带利都是人家当年积攒的，人家在退休之后到全部死光之前把这些积累都拿完都是应该的，所以当这些人进入退休开始取钱以后，CPP的总值同比下降是正常的。反正现在CPP要供养的人本来就多过以后要供养的人。
要是指望现在的新增供款加上CPP每年的投资增长就能大于、等于CPP每年的支取需求，也即CPP总值永远增长，只多不少的话，相当于说：当年的老同志们积累了很多，退休以后存本取息就养活自己了；死了以后本金就留在CPP里面造福下一代，让CPP的管理者能拿更多的基金管理费，那才叫冤枉呢。
家园 入不敷出是否正常，要看具体数据 有无数据可以支持，CPP可以维持babyboomer一代的支出？大家可以留意一下，找到了再贴上来。
退休基金的回报率不高，就会导致入不敷出。现在投资产品的信用评级往往出现问题，比如说美国的房贷证券化债券MBS/CDO，不但不能达到预期的回报，还有可能导致亏损。加拿大信托基金因为政治风险而暴跌，不少退休基金也遭到波及，也是一个投资回报降低的例子。
家园 商榷一下 小布不会加税，更不会对公司加税．因为这是ＧＯＰ的基本立场。
很有可能的是把Ｓｏｃｉａｌ Ｓｅｃｕｒｉｔｙ私营化，就是让大家自己管理Ｓｏｃｉａｌ Ｓｅｃｕｒｉｔｙ去买ｍｕｔｕａｌ ｆｕｎｄ去。
- 复 商榷一下
家园 未必需要加税 美国因为欠债都是美元，跟打游戏一样，有一次成本很低的重生计划，大幅贬值以后，只要日后控制预算，全民勒紧肚皮储蓄就行了。
现在欠多少无所谓，反正欠的是要多少就能印多少的美元，捏着美国债券的都没有向美国讨债的能力，只要保持军事优胜能力，赖一次帐没什么了不起的。
- 复 商榷一下
家园 布什还能干两年 其实经济学家把通胀称作“通胀税”，就是说政府虽然明着不加税，但是放手不管通货膨胀，造成实际购买力的下降，而政府总是可以印发更多的钞票，实质上是增加了税收。从布什上台到现在，资产泡沫本身就造成了严重的通货膨胀，房子、能源等等涨价的后果是07年1万美金的购买力比00年低多了。
严重的双赤字下，共和党执政两年之后，民主党接手的话肯定只有大幅加税，尤其是针对公司和高收入个人，来保证对低收入人士提供基本的社会福利，保证社会的稳定。民主党控制的国会第一个法案就是涨最低工资，这也是将公司利润向低收入者分流的一个措施。
家园 花一朵，再请教兄一个问题~ 小弟这学期选修的“社会保障论”课里，教授曾经提到美国的Pension好像大部分是交给私人保险公司在操作。
由于课程主要不是讲美国的社会保障，所以只是轻轻带过而已。莫非美国人加入国家提供的社会保障也有很多吗？
家园 pension是过去的事了，现在都没有了 pension是私人公司提供，基本有两种，一种是defined benefits, 说好了退休以后有多少一个月，一种是不说好的，基本上都是年报上会计报数造假的工具，因为公司万一倒闭了，或者投资失利了，这些所谓的pension随时泡汤。其实大部分现在还提供pension的企业都是历史遗留问题，无以为继，根本无法实现承诺。
401K是私人的，是IRA的一种，一般大公司都会match一部分，自己贡献最初的5-6%，公司以1：1的比例额外贡献，你可以自己管理，也有公司规定某些基金管理。私人也可以自己贡献退休户口，品种很多，以Roth IRA比较普遍。
SS社保是全国性的，因为我们要纳社保税，每年社保管理都会有个表寄给你，告诉你按照现在的算法，你65岁时能拿多少钱，你万一提早见上帝家属能拿多少钱。
家园 pension 公司破产pension fund会被FEDERATION PENSION INSURANCE BUREAU接管。当然福利会消减。所以一些公司就利用破产甩掉包袱。