主题：美国WASP统治的衰落？ -- 晨枫
家园 对个体来说最终的问题是 是不是一定要变成WASP的一员才能获得足够的wealth and power，从而掌控自己的命运？而那时，掌握的命运到底是自己的命运还是WASP的命运？
就像北美的open market， 3E是非常有效的，但很少情况下是完全有效的。这个太阳底下还没有什么是长盛不衰的，说到底还是时间问题。
人生短短几十年，每个人都需要选择。
家园 人生短短几十年，每个人都需要选择 if you are in States, then you have already made your choice.
Your success is largely determined by the macroeconomic shift in your environment.
是不是一定要变成WASP的一员才能获得足够的wealth and power
--I do not think so. You can establish your own IT firm and be a millionaire through IPOs.
The difference between WASP elites and Chinese elites: the former gives you enough space of prosperity even if you are not one of them; the latter, much more difficult.
Or put in another way, the former shares the cake of prosperity with non-members. The latter shares the cake among itself.
Do not touch their political power, none of these two groups share power.
家园 As Ping-ti Ho (何柄棣)says the vertical social mobility in China of Ming Dynasty is higher than contemprary USA.
Certainly, contemproray china is higher than 400 years ago.
家园 中美精英集团暂时表现在分蛋糕方面的差别是现象而非本质 因为实力不如人，决策机构被CIA渗透得像筛子一样，所以只能重用自己人，因为自己人中人才太少所以实力愈发不如人。这是大多数国家精英集团面临的局面。然而中国不同，中国的人口太多了，一个14亿人口的国家若是完成工业化，它的实力将远远超过西方国家的总和，而这个工业化过程仅仅需要三十年，年轻人在这里下注机会很不错。
过去几十年一直在摸石头，几乎没有人看到这个前景，当然也没人看到美利坚疲态已露。08年经济危机后这一切全变了，原来我们已经找到了正确的道路，原来美利坚正在奔向它的巅峰。所以你看到胡士泰、薛峰被抓了——有人愿意把自己的前途压在这个民族的未来上。
家园 hehe, 所以只能重用自己人，因为自己人中人才太少所以实力愈发不如人。
--lack of meritcracy is a permeating problem in China's society, not just in the top political level. In a school/company/low-level gov. agency which requires more professional capability than political wisdom, more and more job opportunities go to people with "connections".
That's the concern shared by many of my friends back in China. They are middle-class professionals there. There is no CIA involved, so PLEASE DO NOT BLAME foreigners for your own DOMESTIC PROBLEM.
WXmang has several articles on lack of meritcracy in China. You should read them.
因为实力不如人，决策机构被CIA渗透得像筛子一样，所以只能重用自己人，因为自己人中人才太少所以实力愈发不如人。这是大多数国家精英集团面临的局面。
Really? hehe.
被CIA渗透 or they choose to "diversify" their personal risk and do not put all eggs in China? Have you counted how many people have stepped on two boats? And one boat is located in Diamond Bar, Arcadia, Los Angeles, Newport Beach, Beverly Hills,Irvine ... on the west coast or New Jersey/New York/Connecticut... or in Sydney, Melbourne (among the most exclusive communities)...
I respect your patriotism. Thumbs up for you. But please do not represent China's political elites because you are not one of them.
08年经济危机后这一切全变了，原来我们已经找到了正确的道路，
--I was amazed by your optimism on 正确的道路. I fully agree with your attack on America for its failure around this financial crisis--but that's not surprising to me, because I saw it in late 2006 and shorted US market. Up till now, nothing surprised me.
原来美利坚正在奔向它的巅峰。
--Do not underestimate America's vitality-- in 1980s, Europeans and Japanese claimed the same thing and believe that they were destined to rule the world.
America's vitality lies with its ability to adapt and adjust. Crisis is nothing new in its history and crisis is good for itself.
If you read articles by smart people such as Mranderson/Wolfgan/WXmang, you will be more realistic about China.
所以你看到胡士泰、薛峰被抓了
--that's DESPERATE measure and abuse of governmental power. The fact about this case is that Australian firms are good at commercial espionage and easily corrupt top guys in various steel companies. Here China has two problems: steel firms are very very poor in internal control, professional ethics and the country lacks system to deal with commercial espionage issues. (another problem lies with the pay practice inside those firms)
Europeans/Japanese all buy steel ore from Australians, but the large scale corruption and failure in price negotiation is very unique in China.
BTW, one legitimate way for the gov. to intervene is to cite Commercial Anti-espionage law and let the law enforcement enforce the law under the request of domestic firms. Thus, you follow the rule of law, address the key problem and give no excuse for diplomatic trouble.
In contrast, these two guys were persecuted under the venue of "breach of national secret" and national security agency was even involved in the investigation. It was an awkward abuse of political power and perceived very badly in the English media: lack of transparency, arbitrary definition of "national secret" similar to the Stalin's practice, dirty play from the losers in a commercial transaction.
It also sent this clear signal here: so long as you are ethnical Chinese, no matter whatever is your citizenship, we will persecute you FIRST, violate your civil rights FIRST, and let loose the White Australian/American/Canadian. You are pushing those Asian Australians even closer to your opposite side.
Look at what happened later: Hu was sentenced then released--what a joke! If he violated your criminal code, you should prison him in your own country. Americans did that, Canadians did that. You are treating your own law as a piece of joke and further confirms the inaccurate labeling of "police state".
Then the Steel Industry Association failed again in price negotiation and Rio Tinto hiked up price again unilaterally, and Chinese lost out totally again.
In the end, a loss of your political reputation as well as commercial gain. You achieved nothing in the end.
I will not continue this debate. Let's agree to disagree.
China will continue its upward trend, for sure. But if you assume that the housing bubble and forthcoming fiscal problem in China will end up in nice shape, you are clearly too optimistic. Won and (w)ho placed a big bomb under the ass of the next top leadership after 2012, and we shall let history speak for itself.
BTW, I believe America will have the second dip and America will face major crisis before China does in the next 10 years. Euroland is first to fall.
通宝推：Levelworm,- 复 hehe,
家园 实际上这是一个怪圈 圈子外的人必须依赖圈子内的人才有可能发达-->圈子外的人实际上并没有安全感，无论是因为他们发达手法的肮脏还是其他什么，最重要的是他们不是圈子内的-->于是圈子外的人倾向于捞一把就跑，这加深了他们“捞一把”时候的不择手段-->圈子内的人越发不信任圈子外的人，圈子更加牢固-->返回到第一条。
实际上几千年来都在这个怪圈里头打转。近有民营企业，远有胡雪岩、沈万三。
- 复 hehe,
家园 del - 复 hehe,
家园 至少最后两段我们可以取得一致 我今年27岁，到2030年也不过47，我们不妨一起看看，2020年后的中国是如何通过东方式民主来调整分配结构的，希望到时候还能在西西河看到你。
家园 fyi. http://www.ccthere.com/article/3008747
Read for yourself.
2020年后的中国是如何通过东方式民主来调整分配结构的--really admire your optimism. Good luck.
家园 做了什么样的选择？ choice of process or choice of fate？
所谓的sell an IT firm致富，很大可能也不得不通过你原文里说的think like a WASP and act like a WASP来实现的。在北美这个市场里想取得竞争优势，不守规则是不行的。但是，这个过程就足够让每个成功者都心甘情愿的变成WASPized banana么？我不认为3E总是完全有效。
另外，你所描述的两种精英团体在资源和财富共享上的区别是现状，但不代表不会改变，虽然我不知道什么时候会改变。
Establishing economical prosperity without matching political power is always dangerous. You can find your niche, but you can never become one of them.
家园 WASP do not care 这个过程就足够让每个成功者都心甘情愿的变成WASPized banana么？我不认为3E总是完全有效。
--I never claim that it should be effective. There were German Americans who finally chose to serve for Hitler rather than his own nationa too in the past. It is purely a matter of choice for individuals.
Just be blunt with you: they do not care if you are not 心甘情愿.
WASP elites are the smartest and brightest elites in the world, based on my life observations in various Asian, European and American countries. If you were in Europe/Asia, you would face less 3E, but more exclusion and expellation.
我不认为3E总是完全有效--while if you refuse to accept their way, there are many other Europeans waiting in the doorway to be part of the system. Just like the current G2 relationship, if Chinese do not want to be the cheap labor provider, American multinationals can switch to other competing Asian nations. Chinese need to find either new external demand or stimulate their domestic demand before breaking this G-2 relation.
你所描述的两种精英团体在资源和财富共享上的区别是现状，但不代表不会改变，
--okay. hehe. Good luck. WASP elites share wealth not because they like to, just because American havenots have voting power and rule of law dating back to Magna Carta of 1285 to protect them.
You are too optimistic about human nature and China.
家园 是吗？ 呵呵，也许太乐观的是你。Good luck to your lifetime observations and I wish they would continue to be right.
我们至少有一点达成共识，就是选择已经变成了一个屁股问题。
家园 成功的存活是稳定性和变异性的平衡 成功的物种和文化都是如此。
他们也是其中一个。
家园 这有点像犹太人的界定:不问人种问宗教 家园 hehe, thumbs up for your summary.
That's how Jewish people expand and prosper over thousands of years. That's partially the reason why WASP culture/community expand and prosper over time.
Jews define their community based on religion and mother's bloodline, therefore, even if all their men were slaughtered in the bloody middle-east conflicts in the past, the Jewish people still survived.
There were so many ancient civilizations originating from the middle-east/two-river region. So many nations prospered and then totally eliminated by genocide wars.