主题：2010年诺贝尔经济学奖 -- 万里风中虎
- 复 也可以说是常识
家园 那只是因为凯恩斯理论错得离谱，他们只是重复了一下人们的常 我不是说他们的理论错了，而是说他们的所谓理论，只是人们的普通常识。
另外，跟上面人说的所谓马克思伪玄想无关。
家园 我的帖子也没说这个理论不是常识 而且如果一个经济学理论或经验研究结果同常识相差很大，错的多半是这项研究，而不是常识。但是从脑子里很模糊的常识，到严格的，经过数学逻辑验证的，同数据相结合，能够解释很大一部分数据变化，能够预测未来变化的模型还是有非常大的一部分距离。不信的话，如果你从来没接触过这方面的研究，你可以自己试试。如果你真有这方面的才能，这个很容易可以做到的话，我觉得你不如该行。且不说诺贝尔奖，美国最好大学经济系的名教授，一年的收入超过50万美元。如果这些常识的东西这么容易的话，怎么大家不都改行，做经济学家呢？
家园 常识和包装过的常识有差距 我知道的只是常识，他们会的是包装这些常识的方法。
家园 这是 Christopher A. Pissarides 1972-2009年37年间62篇主要的文章，你任选一篇，我们讨论讨论吧。
您老就别客气了，谈谈看法嘛,让我们这些江湖后学晚辈都开开眼,都向您老学习学习。
Christopher A. Pissarides, 2009. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1339-1369, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Christopher A. Pissarides, 2008. "A new method to estimate time variation in the NAIRU - comments," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2008. "Employment Outcomes in the Welfare State," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 59(3), pages 413-436. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2008. "Trends in Hours and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), pages 239-256, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Barbara Petrongolo & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2008. "The Ins and Outs of European Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 256-62, May. [Downloadable!]
Christopher Pissarides, 2008. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Christopher Pissarides on the Matching Function," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), November. [Downloadable!]
L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March. [Downloadable!]
Christopher A. Pissarides & Giovanna Vallanti, 2007. "The Impact Of Tfp Growth On Steady-State Unemployment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(2), pages 607-640, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Azariadis, Costas & Pissarides, Christopher A., 2007. "Unemployment dynamics with international capital mobility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 27-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Unemployment And Hours Of Work: The North Atlantic Divide Revisited," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 1-36, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Barbara Petrongolo & Christopher Pissarides, 2006. "Scale Effects in Markets with Search," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 21-44, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Petrongolo, Barbara & Pissarides, Christopher, 2006. "Scale effects in markets with search," Open Access publications from London School of Economics and Political Science http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/, London School of Economics and Political Science. [Downloadable!]
Petrongolo, Barbara & Pissarides, Christoper A., 2003. "Scale Effects in Markets with Search," IZA Discussion Papers 691, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
Petrongolo, Barbara & Pissarides, Christopher, 2002. "Scale Effects in Markets with Search," CEPR Discussion Papers 3648, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Barbara Petrongolo & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2003. "Scale Effects in Markets with Search," CEP Discussion Papers dp0571, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
Christopher Pissarides & Dale Mortensen, 2005. "Dale Mortensen and Christopher Pissarides receive IZA Prize in Labor Economics," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 583-586, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Amiti, Mary & Pissarides, Christopher A., 2005. "Trade and industrial location with heterogeneous labor," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 392-412, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Fonseca, Raquel & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma & Pissarides, Christopher A., 2001. "Entrepreneurship, start-up costs and employment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 692-705, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A., 2001. "Employment protection," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 131-159, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Barbara Petrongolo & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Christofer A. Pissarides, 2000. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy with and without the Euro Patterns in Neighboring Areas," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, Summer.
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1999. "Policy Influences on Unemployment: The European Experience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(4), pages 389-418, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1999. "Unemployment Responses to 'Skill-Biased' Technology Shocks: The Role of Labour Market Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 242-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A., 1998. "The impact of employment tax cuts on unemployment and wages; The role of unemployment benefits and tax structure," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-183, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1998. "Technological Progress, Job Creation and Job Destruction," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(4), pages 733-753, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1997. "Learning by Trading and the Returns to Human Capital in Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 17-32, January.
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Search Unemployment with On-the-Job Search," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(3), pages 457-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A. & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 1994. "On-the-job search: Some empirical evidence from Britain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 385-401, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Bean, Charles & Pissarides, Christopher, 1993. "Unemployment, consumption and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 837-854, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1992. "Loss of Skill during Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1371-91, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1991. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Poverty in Selected Industrial Countries," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 207-29, May.
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1991. "Real Wages and Unemployment in Australia," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(229), pages 35-55, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A & McMaster, Ian, 1990. "Regional Migration, Wages and Unemployment: Empirical Evidence and Implications for Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 812-31, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1989. "Unemployment and Macroeconomics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 56(221), pages 1-14, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Meghir, Costas & Ioannides, Yannis & Pissarides, Christopher, 1989. "Female participation and male unemployment duration in Greece: Evidence from the labour force survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 395-406, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Jackman, R & Layard, Richard & Pissarides, C, 1989. "On Vacancies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(4), pages 377-94, November.
Pissarides, Christopher A. & Weber, Guglielmo, 1989. "An expenditure-based estimate of Britain's black economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 17-32, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 1989. "Unemployment and the Inter-regional Mobility of Labour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 739-55, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A., 1989. "Unemployment consequences of an aging population: An application of insider-outsider theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 355-366, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Pissarides, C., 1988. "Unemployment Consequences Of An Aging Population: An Application Of Insider-Outsider Theory," Papers 327, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1988. "The Search Equilibrium Approach to Fluctuations in Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 363-68, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1987. "Wages and Employment: A Framework for Analysis with Application to Three Policy Issues," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 63(183), pages 301-12, December.
Pissarides, Christopher, 1987. "Mass unemployment : A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 183-188, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1987. "Search, Wage Bargains and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(3), pages 473-83, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1986. "Trade Unions and the Efficiency of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(4), pages 582-95, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. " Dynamics of Unemployment, Vacancies and Real Wages with Trade Unions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 87(2), pages 386-403.
Ioannides, Yannis M & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Monopsony and the Lifetime Relation between Wages and Productivity," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 91-100, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-90, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Taxes, Subsidies, and Equilibrium Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 121-33, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1984. "Search Intensity, Job Advertising, and Efficiency," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 128-43, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, C A, 1984. "Efficient Job Rejection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(376a), pages 97-108, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Alogoskoufis, George & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1983. "A Test of Price Sluggishness in the Simple Rational Expectations Model: U.K. 1950-1980," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 616-28, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1983. "Efficiency Aspects of the Financing of Unemployment Insurance and Other Government Expenditure," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 57-69, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Yannis M. Ioannides & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1983. "Wages and Employment With Firm-Specific Seniority," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(2), pages 573-580, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1982. "Job Search and the Duration of Layoff Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(4), pages 595-612, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1982. "From School to University: The Demand for Post-Compulsory Education in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 654-67, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1981. "Staying-on at School in England and Wales," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 48(192), pages 345-63, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, C A, 1980. "The Wealth-Age Relation with Life Insurance," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 451-57, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1980. "British Government Popularity and Economic Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(3593), pages 569-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Zabalza, A. & Pissarides, C. & Barton, M., 1980. "Social security and the choice between full-time work, part-time work and retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 245-276, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, C A, 1979. "Job Matchings with State Employment Agencies and Random Search," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(356), pages 818-33, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1978. "Liquidity Considerations in the Theory of Consumption," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 279-96, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1978. "The Role of Relative Wages and Excess Demand in the Sectoral Flow of Labour," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(3), pages 453-67, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1976. "Job Search and Participation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(169), pages 33-49, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, Christopher A, 1974. "Risk, Job Search, and Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1255-67, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pissarides, C A, 1972. "A Model of British Macroeconomic Policy, 1955-1969," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 245-59, September.
本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)- 复 这是
家园 这些只是过程，并不能掩盖结论只是普通的常识 从美国失业率重新达到10%可知，这些结论只是重复了人们的一般常识，对改善就业并无帮助。。
和讨论的医学方法一样，外行只接受科研的成果。经济学的成果是对经济制度的改善。
家园 hehe, you are too smart. 我们有医学，我们还是会感冒；
我们有物理学，我们会撞车；
我们有文学，我们没感觉；
我们有化学，我们喝三鹿奶粉；
我们有数学，我们用计算器；
我们有伦理学，我们吃喝嫖赌道德败坏；
我们有宗教，我们还是会死；
我们有老婆，我们看A片心中无码；
我们有孔夫子，我们要于丹姐姐教论语；
我们有毛主席，我们留着台湾；
我们有温总理，我们有地震雪灾；
......
我们有经济学，我们有失业；
失业？
都是花里胡哨的常识。
家园 老虎真够犀利的，呵呵。 家园 回复有宝吗？ 没有营养 纯支持
家园 医学给了我们奎宁，青霉素。。 物理给了我们汽车
文学给了我们他人生活的经验
化学给了我们奶粉
。。。
每一个都解决了一些实际问题，让我们可以有更多的时间做我们真正想做的事情。so they are enabling sciences.
经济学，on the other hand, does not make things easier, or provide solution, in absolute terms. And it takes time (certainty) away from us. So it's a disabling science.
“我们”是指该产业从业人员以外的民众。
家园 "经济学“在搞破坏方面倒是很有力的，诸如休克疗法的经济学 家园 理论和实践还是有距离的 理论只是用来指导实践，不是说你用了某种理论，就能保证实践一定成功。任何理论都有一堆前提假定，如果你的实际情况根本不适用这些假定，那么用这个理论来指导实践很可能就会失败。
家园 问题更在于人家想用理论达成什么样的实践效果 我在前贴中说的意思就是：休克疗法是人家故意制造出来的一个理论骗局，西方人知道这个疗法当中的漏洞在哪里，他们装作不知道而推销给俄罗斯，然后又将相似疗法推广给所有的发展中国家包括东南亚国家包括中国
我手边的一本中国博士写的专著（当然大部分也是抄来抄去，该作者没有什么自己的观点，大杂烩，用专著这个词语勉强了）里面就已经说明了，29-33年的经济危机以后，西方已经对经济危机中的流动性枯竭会对经济造成的破坏性有很清晰的认识或者说是共识了
为了慎重起见，我来做一下抄书先生，让更多的人了解一下西方对经济危机的共识：
凯恩斯主义认为，大危机的原因在于市场经济的内在不稳定引起的总需求不足。如果放任市场经济自行远转，总需求不足是必然的，危机也就不可避免。但只要国家采取需求管理政策进行干预，尽管经济波动难以彻底消除，但是像1929年这样的大危机是完全可以避免的。以弗里德曼为代表的货币主义则从另外一个角度说明了大危机的原因。他在《1867-1960年美国货币史》一书中强调了货币因素和中央银行的重要性。弗里德曼认为，中央银行没有执行好货币政策，以致没有阻止银行的冒险经营和走向破产，以及货币供应量的大幅度减少，这是30年代大危机的根本原因。货币主义相信市场经济具有内在的稳定性，他们认为市场经济的正常运行需要一个稳定的环境，尤其是货币和物价的稳定。如果中央银行采取适当的政策以稳定金融体系与货币，为市场经济充分发挥作用和正常运行创造良好的环境，像30年代那样的大危机是可以避免的---《宏观金融风险-理论，历史和现实》刘立峰著 中国发展出版社2000年版
如果看次贷危机以后西方国家的反应，可以知道西方国家同时采纳了凯恩斯主义的主张和货币主义的主张---一方面加大公共投资以扩大有效需求甚至包括采取一些措施遏制外国厂商的竞争力（诸如美国对丰田的打压），另一方面，则大量的放出货币，以避免因为危机发生以后的流动性枯竭的问题
所以，西方人提出来的休克疗法，却没有在西方主流经济学界遭到足够多的质疑，那么还能够有什么解释呢？--那就是那是人家精心布置的一场理论骗局
当然，在西方是有人发出质疑的，比如世界银行的首席经济学家，克林顿政府的前总统经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂格利茨先生就对西方经济学的骗局进行了尖锐的揭露---问题在于在压制之下，像斯蒂格利茨一样发出声音来的西方经济学者的数量太少。，从而使得斯蒂格利茨的声音显得是那么的弱小，显得是那么的不合时宜---通过资本的控制，使资本的声音最大而反资本的声音最弱（不一定要彻底压制反资本的声音）---这样的一种倾斜言论管理策略是西方应用得非常娴熟的--如同其他领域的反资本的声音一样，斯蒂格利茨代表西方经济学界的良心的声音被淹没了，而在基金会的引诱下表现得非常灵活的克鲁格曼们则被资本给包装成了世界经济学的明星
---西方经济学界是会装傻的，否则，难以解释他们为什么对中国的经济发展那么的惊讶，却一再的为臭名昭著的印度经济唱赞歌---西方经济学界的理论水平绝对能够解释中国奇迹，问题在于他们希望切断中国经济奇迹，所以对奇迹背后的根源他们故意装作不知道，而通过各种渠道向中国人指出另一条道路，这也就是诸如达沃斯世界经济论坛上充斥着奇谈怪论的原因
西方人在装傻，中国人该怎么办？---中国的领导人是经过政治锤炼的，他们不容易上当，问题在于中国的知识分子们，习惯于依赖西方的知识分子们，如果不自己养成独立的习惯，那么这些知识分子们确实会走向---知识越多越没用因为他们分辨不出哪些是西方骗人的，哪些不是骗人的---因为他们缺乏质疑的勇气
家园 脑血栓和胃出血吃同一种药么？ 呵呵，教主，美国人是怎么走出七十年代滞涨的，保罗·沃尔克把年利率抬高到17%，这样的休克疗法，是在自己给自己下套么？
家园 里根政府提高利率是想利用外国资本同时打击国内工人阶级 也就是说美国在利用自身力量解决不了问题的时候只好通过吸引外资（主要是日本和阿拉伯等等的资金---另外还有打击拉丁美洲经济的考虑）
因为此前拉丁美洲向美国等西方国家借了大量的贷款，美国一把利息抬高，就可以扼杀拉丁美洲的经济，拉美经济从此陷入了严重的债务困境
里根政府时期开始走向所谓的新自由主义---如同撒切尔夫人领导下的英国实行了大规模私有化，美国政府通过抬高利率，使得工人大量的失业，降低了工人的购买力，减少了工人的有效需求，从而在一定程度上制止了物价上涨
同时里根--撒切尔夫人实行那样的高利率政策，有一个根基就是广场协议已经签订了，里根的智囊团们很清楚，日元必将升值，让日本资金进入美国以后，通过日元升值的机会将日本的外汇储备贬值，这是一个利益极大的买卖
同时，工人阶级大量的失业，财富大量的集中到投机银行家们手里，也方便了华尔街银行家们进行赌博游戏
所以说美国走出滞涨的原因，有对日本的搜刮，对拉丁美洲的搜刮，对美国工人的搜刮，里根政府的政策实际上是饮鸩止渴
家园 经济学家和民主人士类似的是 可以长期，屡次做无用功，甚至把人往沟里引，但一从不受惩罚，二势力还越来越大。
所以都是特殊行业。