主题：cited article, 中国除了不断地说“不”之外 -- parishg
- 复 请教一个问题
家园 wait and see. USD will strengthen against all European currencies for sure.
Never, ever, underestimate Ben Bernanke. This Fed Chairman is an evil genius.
家园 I agree USD has already risen against EUR for a while and Europe, honestly speaking, is full of potential bombs. But the US elites are nevertheless amazing in planting and triggering these bombs. They are Masters of manipulating and execution and the Chinese elites can learn a lot by watching their playbook. I, as one of the "pimin", only desire to read a few of their hands.
家园 中国现在就出头 就如同1890年美国就出头挑事的后果。自不量力。还真以为自己是somebody了？一战的美国大兵开始都是被英法当垃圾用。谁看得起你美国佬。那已经是1890年之后的将近30年了！
对于弱者，向来都是先保住自己不失误，然后再去占别人便宜。积累的几十年的元气，耗尽它几年就够了。中国还不够强大到可以到国际战略舞台中间主演的地步。
中国主导世界，可以。2030年之后在做打算比较好。现在我们只要做好自己就够了。
通宝推：brentpyz,- 复 中国现在就出头
家园 agree my point is that China needs to give a much better system to all countries on the earth to dismantle this america-led global order and replace America as the No.1.
Currently, I do not think it is possible. China lacks economic resources as well as intellectual pool. China barely passed the stage as a poor third-world country. Its nationals have not benefited from the rise of China.
People on this forum just could not wait any longer. You read Chen Feng's post: Canada and America are nothing already compared with China.
He keeps on talking about inflation threat, but I believe we will actually see deflation in the next 10 years. As I said before, a chemical engineer should not step out of his field of expertise and boast about long term economic forecasts. If he can read history a bit more, he will see the helicopter Ben is actually a evil genius.
- 复 agree
家园 Can't agree more 中国的问题在于，有了领导的潜力，但是上台的思路，政策都没有呢，你怎么竞选怎么说服人家跟你？
根本的问题在于，自己都没有真的看清自己，不知自己从何而来，不知自己是谁，自然不知何处去。
- 复 agree
家园 看来有些想法是大家都有 只不过表达的重点不一样。
要领导其他国家，就必须要政治军事经济科技各个层面都超越别人。中国历史上能做到这点。美国过去十来年能做到这点。但是现在的中国还没能做到。
老美做资本主义老大的底气，就我看来，相当一部分是小罗斯福同志对于既有制度的改革带来的。在他引导的架构下政府这个大势力下场参与对于资本间的平衡。虽然很粗糙，但相对于以前的自由主义理念，先进了整整一代。
中国有很大的潜力做老大。就中国现有政治模式来说，绝对是人类社会的一大创举。但是如果自己不把自己现有架构，以及自己的未来几十年发展模式总结清楚，这个政治方面的潜力就绝对说不上能转换成实力。路漫漫其修远，这句话用在这里很合适。
但是，这里还有个但是，就我看来，中国发展方向已经初步有个形状。很简单的一句话，政府搭台，企业唱戏。细致一点来说，就是政府和国企搭好整个社会基础框架，起到建设基本infrastructure，满足企业需求的功能。其他各类不同企业在里面竞争，起到满足人民需求的功能。但这个方向距离完善还远。需要继续探索。
总之，对于中国来说，前途是美好的，道路是曲折的。梦想一步到位是要栽大跟头的。
家园 美国还能象80年沃克尔加息加到超10%么? 这是许多人立论的基础.当然,那样很多新兴国家就会爆掉.但是,我看到某人的一个有趣的分析.说美国的金融衍生品市场捆住了美国的手脚.
大量的衍生品的设定的前提是利率不超过5%,过了5%美国要先爆掉.
我无能力做分析.
家园 加息加到超10% will not happen for at least 10 years. USD will experience a long period of weakness against major Asian currencies (though not necessarily against Euro).
it is deja vu of 1970s.
USD needs weakness to inflate away liabilities for gov, corporations and individuals. And last time it took more than 10 years to achieve that. There will be enough time for all major banks to adjust their exposure to various derivatives.
When US economy came back again with new innovations and solid growth, interest rate increase becomes a natural outcome in line with the interests of the financial industry. Anyway, the current weird yield curve structure makes it very hard for banks to earn interest income from their main business. Their trading income has been severely constrained by the Volcker's rule.
There are all kinds of interest rate derivatives for several decades. Those derivatives are not today's invention. But in 1995, Fed did start to raise interest rate. As you say, 那样很多新兴国家就会爆掉.but, Americans are quite selfish here. They care more about their own national interests only.
BTW, my impression is that Fed and major bank heads have constant info exchange through various private channels. Fed and Treasury actually know quite well what is happening at major banks.
- 复 加息加到超10%
家园 所以那个too big too fail电影就是瞎扯 什么保尔森不知道银行和AIG做的合同，我日，保尔森上台前就是高盛的CEO好不好？写书的家伙还真是太能瞎扯了。估计也就是偏偏从来不关心这些的老百姓，事实上只要知道保尔森经历的人应该就不会有这个想法。
家园 the author is the jewish kid he is an insider. Is he going to tell you that "we" control everything and we f* everyone's pension fund?? Oh, by the way, the stock market is just a giant Ponzi scheme for us?
Of course, not. That book is full of Ba Gua news on specific persons, no solid or insightful long-term analysis. You see today's American media is long on Ba Gua news and short on serious analytical reports on true news: the people who are really in charge just want you, the civic society's citizens to be stupid and un-critical.
家园 Yeah, reasonable 尽管一些事情用常理分析一下，就显得过分夸张了。Honestly, I do not think I can pick up long-term analysis from the market(I mean, the book market). I have to do it by reading lots of historical/economic/financial books and tapping into the professional world.
家园 不看立场，这篇对美国思路的分析不错 负资产不能花了
家园 I am no experty in economy nor military. I am merely a chemical engineer. Regarding to your comments:
Tianjin's mayor, so he should not be blamed for making comments as a bystander.Anyone can make a comment. But idle comments are worthless. Negative thinking or neh saying does not get anyone anywhere.
It is now the elected officials' reponsibility to create a better system there. Esp., for China, as the other G2 nation.A better system is not created by a few people. History is created by the masses. Leaders are but a catalyst.
NOW if China wants to lead the world, China needs to propose a better solution. 世界经济需要的不是新的技术，而是新的世界社会经济秩序。 Then China needs to give a better plan to the whole world, do not expect Americans or Canadians will do that. They are the largest beneficiaries under the current system.China is not proposing. China is leading by example. That is what Beijing Consensus is about.
Euro is not better. Global gold is not enough for the current trade payment need.You are rushing to conclusion. It is convenient to have an international clearance currency but not a necessity. Before WW2, there was no single international clearance currency, or you can say there were multiple parallel ones: sterling, francs, US dollars, marks, etc. It will be less convenient to go back to a similar system but not impossible. Bilateral clearance as China is setting up with a number of countries is another route.
Overseas dollars flowed back and were eliminated electronically through the Fed reserve system.You are talking about delinking money and wealth. How do you think Feds like that idea? Or anyone else? Small amount can be considered as a monetary policy adjustment. But a massive one is the start of a general collapse of US dollar if they try that on a massive scale. And once US dollar starts to flow back en masse, only a massive one can "absorb" the surplus. Or a massive inflation. Your pick.
establish new infrastructure to support another 60-year of technological expansion and economic growth，--this is the 1970s solution which does not destroy the current system. It is a low-cost option to avoid too much political disruption.
No one, China included, likes to destroy the current system if it still works. And that is a big "if". If that system still works, western economy would not have been in such a mess. No revolution is voluntary. And don't confuse revolution with agitation. Agitation is to stir things up when things are not fundamentally broken.
家园 what is Beijing Consensus? Actually, I realize that even domestic Chinese officials can not give specific description of this term.
Washginton Consenus is the propaganded term of the Republican wing of free market believers. It works for US to some extent, but was a disaster for Asia in 1990s.
You are talking about delinking money and wealth. How do you think Feds like that idea?
-- you did misunderstand how the system works. It has nothing to do with the decoupling between money and wealth. For Fed Reserve, it is merely a Dr/Cr. adjustment to reduce outstanding currency.
Oh, BTW, I do not think China elites will fundamentally reform the current system. The financial elites of US and China are much much closer than you wish them to be. The end result will be merely a great bargain between the two sides.
For them, nationality does not mean much, as well as national loyalty. You will understand what I mean 10 years later.
Let's wait and see the "history" of the next 10 years.
通宝推：lilly,家园 也许你说得对 菁英是可以在全世界范围内掌握自己的产业的，毕竟他们人在哪里不会影响他们对企业的控股，也不会影响军队对他们的忠诚。而且他们在世界行走也不需要改换国籍，拿护照呗。