主题：【原创】一些凌乱的想法，想到哪说到哪 -- puma2011
家园 其中有些地方还是绝对化了一些 市场容量的扩大是可以扩大总的经济规模，总的财富数量，可容纳的货币规模。前面的分析是在经济规模一定的条件下，如果经济规模扩大，那么情况会更复杂一些，比如经济发展扩张速度，高于资本集团的利润水平；货币的投放和贬值接近资本集团的利润水平；如果还在发展中，长时期，资本集团的投资信心旺盛等等
家园 真的这么有信心么? 分析经济做生意，要关注存量和变量。只看存量，那就是抱残守缺；只关注变量，那就柯达的下场。
"1、13亿VS3亿数量级的差距。"
a.没有数量级的差别；
b.中国的经济是消费驱动还是美国经济是消费驱动？
c.如上所述，TPP的目标之一就是要抵消中国的市场优势
"2、土地国有，政府对于收入的干预以及对于消费的影响"
- 这个我看不懂你在说什么。
- 就说你的前提，莫非中国的收入分配非常公平？其次，土地国有还能坚持多久难说。
3、国际政治，中美争霸对于美国再工业化的不利影响。
- 这个大棋我就不下了
4、群雄并起，人民币国际化对于美元地位的致命打击。
- 这个大棋我也不想下。我把话放到这里，人民币债券市场，司法独立，资本项目开放之前人民币对美元不构成直接冲击。时间会证明我是错是对。btw, 就我个人利益而言，我希望我这个判断是错的。
5。TG非常狡猾，联俄拉欧（德法英），明打日暗打美。
- 我对大棋几乎没有兴趣。别说拉拢一个国家，你试试拉拢你的同事看看能不能成功？
6.时也势也，除非TG自毁前程，否则美国不过是垂死挣扎，
- 前半句不能排除这个可能；整个判断你口气也太大了。
家园 "13亿VS3亿数量级的差距": 数量级差别, 很可能 1.
US 生产关系 advantage, I have written a few posts on that, TGchina's 生产关系 is increasingly becoming an issue,
1) "中國5月外商直接投資下降達16月最大"
2)" 毛林共识下, TG金融逻辑鏈: 无风险利率>10% 新 晓兵"
无风险利率>10%: actually, one can say that Chinese TG elite capital (domestic and international, all kinds, a lot of US capital included) is actually viewing TGchina's 毛林共识 system/生产关系 as very "risky", therefore asking for a much higher risk premium, etc
3) the issues of tgchina"生产关系" problems: many more;
2.
tgchina's 13亿 troops: formidable
European white except for those in Germany: all becoming white trash, kind of,
American white: many of them are becoming white trash, except for those working in high tech and other high end sectors
kind of why US republican and democrat all want immigration law reform, they have to import tons of young smart blood from among those already studying in US colleges, and more from else where;
otherwise: uncle sam has a issue of running out of troops, and if you have no troops, your beautiful "生产关系" will be a paper tiger;
3.
because of that, TPP is an important deal for uncle sam as a 战略缓冲/进攻 area vs Tgchina.
but how TPP is going to come out? hard to say at this point, long way to go?
4.
companies like goog, employee or software engineers are still white dominated, like in other high end economic sectors, so US white troops are not that bad, not yet, but uncle sam has to work on immigration law fast.
5.
Tgchina: so far so good with its 13亿 troops, but how much more profit can TG afford the to feed capital/资本 wolfs to stay and work in china? 10% risk free rate for how long?
high tech such as software industry is an another issue: I just talked to some Chinese software engineers in GOOG, they said that in addition to all the other serious problems, Chinese 文字 is a huge problem by itself, regardless, formidable.
in addition, uncle sam's troops like TSLA, SCTY are developing robots/AI mega based factories as a new manufacturing model to kick ass of Tgchina's 人海战术;
and Tgchina's GFW and other 腦殘 policies will only help uncle sam to develop this "brain GFW" between TGchina and Uncle Sam's world;
6.
种植园土's 亡国之音 about TG top: their brains and their butts, and the splits among themselves, etc: that is actually one of the biggest problems, a kind of reflection of TGchina's rotten 生产关系.
in this world, information and brain power are not evenly distributed, elite=the smartest, troops=stupid, always and everywhere, and Chinese troops are particularly lacking information and information processing ability, due to Chinese political culture of 5k years.
and information transmits at light speed: Chinese elite's view of TGchina itself may actually matter the most, among world elite of economic and political capital decision making regarding their investment in Tgchina.
7.
in that sense, I really don't understand X's 反腐敗 bleeding drama hurting J core, H core and how many more of Chinese elite is going to get hurt bloodily?
my guess: when X was in California, he was fooled by uncle sam's 腐敗 information provided to him, he got tricked.
in today's world of capitalism, capital matters much more than "troops", and X as a philosophy PHD fake, now as commander in chief for TGchina?
X may try to emulate after/模仿 Mao, pretending caring for the troops, but at the cost of TGchina's elite?
in that sense, X is even 内战不内行.
so far, not impressed by his leadership at all.
8
if possible, comments from "汉密尔顿ABC" and "phobos" would be interesting.
家园 the most "evil" guess: 13亿.. 13亿 Chinese troops (one of the most hard working troops in the world) to be managed by TG & uncle sam capital together as wife and husband, did TG's 汪洋 publically say that 中美婚姻 thing already in US anyway? he may not be joking.
after all said and done, all US capital and TG capital want is money, nothing else, but money, return on their capital, risk free or with manageable risk, then where and how to do that? not by killing each other, not likely: TGchina is just too big, uncle sam is just too smart, so, why not 婚姻, why fighting? why not just fuxxing for fun and money?(:)
of course, sometimes, you fight to fuxx and fuxx to fight, just making it spicier, baby(:).
therefore, what is more likely eventually: uncle sam & uncle TG work out some deal, together to do a great business in china's huge and still developing 載體 economy, with US sp500 companies participating in all sectors of Chinese economy, making good money on the way, as they are doing now.
that seems to be most logical and profitable path, then it will most likely happen.
家园 中美人员对比: 静质量, 相对论质量 I am going to write in my usual way, as explained many times before, food for thoughts, brief, trying to throw "points" out, with some physics analogies.
by the way, physics has quietly embedded into all kinds of ALGOs, running many "jobs" in uncle sam's white world.
1.
中美人员troops=labor force in general, or in the sense of troops vs elite;
there are a few posts here
中美人员素质对比 花5 集庆彪 字
2.
I have posted extensively about elite part, and recently about 生产关系 in my series of "汉密尔顿ABC"講金融, and 生产关系 is mostly created and managed by elite, as Marx said, marx is a great political economist, but that was then, it is now: humanity has progressed gigantically since then, as it should have.
3.
生产力, a big part of 生产力 is your troops, regardless, and how they perform (mainly 勞動生產率) relative to other countries is a big deal: your troops=your market consumption power as well, among other things.
you nation can only progress as a whole if your troops moves forward.
kind of why as 楼主 said, US elite is now seriously worried about their troops under TGchina's pressure, in terms of jobs, etc.
and at humanity level, "peaceful" competition among nations is always encouraged.
4.
in general, US troops has a much wider range of productivity, outstanding at higher end, and almost animal like in lower end, and as posted before:
"野性的呼唤: 美国力量之一 ", 中华民族的高智商: a complex issue", etc
basically, compared to US troops, Tgchina's troops are highly concentrated in the middle part of the "US range", lacking creativity etc at higher end, but extremely well educated, motivated, and hard working.
yes, Chinese have farmers, and now many 90 folks are full of 野性的呼唤 etc.
5.
I am here comparing US/Chinese troops much more in terms of information processing, in the background of their culture and other systematic variables, and often in an extreme way to get the points out, which may be offensive to many Chinese here in this forum. but, stay cool and keep open minded is more important than feeling humbled or humiliated. by the way, I have no intention to humiliate anybody here. what money do I make out of it(:)?
6.
Chinese troops is more of 静质量, with very little ability in information absorbing and processing, although improving;
US troops is much more of 相对论质量, a huge margin over Chinese troops, although the US pre college education (12 years before college) is now almost becoming a joke, which has already impacted US troops negatively.
7.
"静质量这一名词在狭义相对论中通常是指物质在静止时所测量的质量（静质量）。这个意义的质量与牛顿力学的质量相同。"
basically, Chinese troops lives (or perceives outside world) in a 牛顿力学 world, or 低速 world;
in a newton 機械 world, we don't really have to deal with 电磁 or information if you will;
then, we don't have to be information sensitive, or we don't need 相对论质量 concept/model, roughly and in an analogy.
8.
wiki: 相對論性質量的概念[编辑]
早期的发展：横向与纵向质量[编辑]
约瑟夫·汤姆孙在1881年[1] 承认一个带电的物体比一个没有带电的物体更难加速。因此静电能量表现成某种电磁质量，增加了物体的机械质量。之后威廉·维恩 （1900）[2]和 Max Abraham （1902）[3] 认为一个物体的总共质量与它的电磁质量相同。因为电磁质量取决于电磁能量，维恩所提出的质能关系是m=(4/3)E/c^2。
George Frederick Charles Searle 和汤姆孙也指出，电磁质量随着物体的速度而增加
without going further into details (SR is not an easy subject, particularly in china, due to language and other barriers, such as “朗道势垒” & GFW,etc)
but in general, as we all know, SR comes out of solving some paradoxes (伽利略变换 洛伦兹变换 etc: 光速不變 must 满足相对性原理) in the world of maxwell equation or 电磁 world, or information world fundamentally, as opposed to newton's 機械 world .
the world has completely changed since then, as we all know. information, information, information.
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%8B%B9%E7%BE%A9%E7%9B%B8%E5%B0%8D%E8%AB%96%E4%B8%AD%E7%9A%84%E8%B3%AA%E9%87%8F
9
"\gamma=1/\sqrt{1-v^2/c^2}"是洛伦兹因子，or you could call it 信息因子, and if your kids are further interested, there is an another important 因子 called phase 因子, 相位因子 of quantum physics, and I have posted quite bit about it, another concept challenging possibly to entire Chinese physics world in mainland.
10.
in today's global information economy, if your troops have no idea about what is and how to process information, then just forget about innovation, 成建制的 innovation.
11.
as posted before, we can't blame all these on TG, and to be "objectively" speaking, TG has modernized Chinese nation quite bit, compared to India if you will.
as posted before, more profoundly, the Chinese nation is almost "近亲繁殖" in its reproduction of all aspects of Chinese society.
as posted before, that atop many other reasons, us Chinese here in US is significantly outperformed by Indians in the camps of sp500 level executives, CEOS (indian CEOS: MSFT, Pepsi, master card etc), and 30% of sp500 companies were created by "non-us native"immigrants.
12.
another example here is this forum: recently there is some kind of post about HongKong ( I guess, I scanned twice, not knowing what the hell it talks about(:), no offense again), and there are 2000 flowers, many of them are from us Chinese here in US, I would think.
the Chinese ALGOs running in their blood draw them over to posts like that, arguing, cheering, like they have nothing else to do? OMG(:). again, just as an example, on offense to whomever.
in this case, your Chinese blood is kind of 电解质, going into your brain, activating those Chinese ALGOs automatically, OMG(:). Uncle TG smiles, I told you, baby. "没有了祖国你将什么都不是".
as posted before, the Chinese culture and pride are just deeply in our blood, period.
13.
now, what is the point?
the point is: the hard working and very "nice" Chinese troops of 1.3 Billion is a huge advantage of TGchina's 載體 economy, with a tons of profits to be made, even going forward, for many years to come.
Chinese troops may be lacking 相对论质量 now, but absent of a third world war, the gaps of all kinds between US and TGchina should be expected to become narrower, not widen, however slow it may be.
14
obviously, US and TGchina elite capital know all these "models" much better than I can articulate: then, how to make money out of these Chinese troops? (:)
15.
another point I have posted a couple of times before: 剥削有功 may be extreme, but it is true.
economics, 勞動生產率 of capitalism is all about sucking money/capital out of stupid/weak hands, putting money/capital in the hands of smart/strong innovators, so society can progress as whole.
yes, there are humanitarian aspects of capitalism and they should be improved as well, etc, but that does not change the nature of the game. not at all. period.
nevertheless, those 道德經 tricks have been played by politicians all over the world forever, and particularly by Chinese social elite in managing Chinese troops for 5 k years.
one of reasons: in china, social elite has been political elite, 5 k years.
politicians=披著道德經羊皮的 smart 狼, for most of politicians.
deal with it, baby(:).
how to normalize political system is still a challenge to humanity. right now, politicians are wasting tons of system's money.
16
"汉密尔顿ABC"講金融 (2): 温水煮青蛙 晓兵
in the "温水煮青蛙" model under "华盛顿共识", anybody of Chinese troops can become a super rich innovator, "fair" and productive?
but, "毛林共识下, TG金融逻辑鏈: 无风险利率>10%": ugly or beautiful?
kind of why posts such as "puma2011：【原创】一些凌乱的想法，想到哪说到哪" ""汉密尔顿ABC"講金融 are so interesting, now all making sense?
本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)
家园 国家发展强盛，既是经济，更是政治 讲经济就要做生意，就要有利可图，讲政治就要有整体观，进行利益平衡。也用1、2、3、a/b/分析下。
1、a.一个高速发展正在迅速工业化城市化的13亿人口大国，其需求是庞大的，正因原先积累低，因此需求更为旺盛,这不是世界上任何经济体可比的。
b.中国经济原先是发展驱动，现今是发展驱动和消费驱动的并行。
c.TPP是针对中国而来，中国庞大的市场，巨大的发展需求，不断增长的经济实力都在不断强化着中国的国际影响，完全可以用多边谈判和双边谈判冲抵TPP的不利影响。就目前而言，TPP没能阻挡中国东盟自由贸易区的建立，新西兰、澳大利亚对中国市场的依赖有增无减，不用说韩国离开中国市场还有多少可玩的。
2、a.土地国有、公有制为主体，决定了国家对资源的绝对掌握，再加上政府对收入分配的强大干预，能保证社会均衡发展，保持健康循环。
b.中国改革开放之初是让少数人先富起来，用资本的力量、外来先进技术和管理助推中国的经济发展，到了现在是把资本力量纳入国家整体发展战略，收入分配向劳动收入和低层倾斜，社会发展是动态的，平衡也是动态的，这就是为什么要不断深入“改革”。
c.“大道之行。天下为公”、“率土之滨、莫为王土”，中国一直有天下为公的思想，虽然没有避免事实上的私有。可是别忘了，中共是从土地革命起家的，对土地问题的认识不会不比我等深刻。就目前法律和政策只是土地使用权的有限转让和承包，没有任何土地私有迹象，在可见的将来亦不会有。
3、a.人民币国际化是个渐进过程，伦敦、法兰克福人民币清算银行的成立，中国和一系列国家货币互换协议和结算协议的签订都是人民币国际化的重要步骤。
b.如果说人民币债券市场，资本项目开放是人民币国际化的重要环节，不知于司法独立和干！
通宝推：acton,老调重弹,家园 债券是谁的司法管辖就很重要 债券是要讨债的，就TG的法院，如果让它们判债主有信心拿回钱来？
家园 13和3没有数量级的差别？ 一个数量级就是后面加个0吧？当然这个可以讨论，不过中国人口总数超过美日欧总和。
有没有数量级的差别和消费驱动有什么关系？
家园 一个趋势一旦形成，在耗尽能量之前，无人可挡 TG从1949年积贫积弱走到G2，绝非等闲之辈。现在距离顶峰只有一步之遥，你觉得TG会自毁前程，重新回去做300年殖民地？
我不知道太多的内幕信息，但我知道历史，在有前景获得更大利益的时候，内部各利益集团能够协调利害冲突形成合力，相反在增长瓶颈得不到突破的时候，内部会爆发残酷的内讧。
而现在这个利益就是：取代美国的位置，以14亿人口大市场为核心，人民币取代美元，建立以中国为轴心的新的资本主义经济大循环。
"就我个人利益而言，我希望我这个判断是错的"阁下选边站队，那我也选边站队，押美国再工业化失败。
通宝推：金口玉言,家园 你还真信有神马G2? 家园 不相信G2，但是相信著名的GE前CEO的数一数二top2 《浪潮之巅》也说，市场往往形成2个寡头垄断，第1市场占有率约70%，第2约20%，第3至第10去瓜分其他10%。
中国的体格当然是成为世界市场的top1，中美之间的斗争归根到底就是70%和20%之争，无关正义邪恶，就是利益和生存空间之争，这是不可调和的，是你死我活的。
通宝推：acton,家园 其实中国想小步蚕食来着 就是作为第二名，能突破20%的上限，跑到25%，那也行，很知足。
为什么呢？因为中国的体制，决定了每届董事会都非常在意自己的历史定位，从老一辈手里接过来，到我这里还能在某个领域发展一块，那就交代得过去了------这是一种极其敷衍的态度，是做得漂亮一点的“混日子”，因为那两位的眼里，只有自己当位的十年，圆满到站下车就行。
但跨过20%，就是向第一名宣战。一旦宣战，就是要么最后拿70%，要么输光，二选一。你跟毛主席保证，拿到35%肯定停下，谁敢信？美国是不会让你轻易拿21%的，因为退让一步，以后会步步退让，刹不住。
所以当你从19.9%再向前跨一步的时候，必须要考虑今后100年的节奏，这没考虑好，还想着摸石头，那就不要跨了。什么叫“摸石头”？就是没过脑子，摸到哪儿算哪儿。想当年你只有全球份额的5%，这么一路摸到19%，傻大胆儿，美国是容忍的。这以后还敢摸？神经太大条了吧。
但不要说100年，谁会想10年以后的事，有毛病吧？你且看看你住的城市，不管是中国还是外国，今天有哪个市长会为自己任期以后的民生打算（以前有，陈希同和陈良宇都是）？我承认西方是民主，但我也承认中国是西方的3倍民主------因为中国的最高领导人，任期大约是西方同事平均任期的3倍。所以这2个，是50步和150步的关系，谁也不好意思笑话谁。
TPP最后能带来的现实意义，不是建立一个摒弃恶魔的“世外桃源”，那个办不到。最可能造就的现实意义，是交战------真正的，戕害数十亿人的战争。
习总说“个人毁誉，个人生死，无所谓”，他毕竟在做一些影响超过10年的大事，很不容易了。这个世界上，很难找到这样的领导人了。
“管好十年，红光满面”，现在满世界的领导人啊，真是器小易盈，跟主席总理那会子，没法比啊。
家园 各人选择各人愿意相信的， 这完全是个人自由，我完全支持。我没有选边站队，你不用替我作决定。
我已经丧失了和你继续讨论的兴趣，不再见了。
家园 各人选择各人愿意相信的 但是这个宇宙的本质规律只有一个，当下的历史发展也只有一个，合力出结果。
“当代重大问题不是用演讲和大多数人的决议所能解决……而必须靠铁和血来解决。”当然有了分导式多弹头洲际弹道导弹战略核潜艇和三相氢弹千万吨TNT钴59这么些个新玩具，铁和血退居幕后，但我们还是能看到埋伏在帷幕之后的刀斧手的身影。
2021.7.1,2049.10.1，我将专注自己的事业，然后静静等待这些日子的来临。
家园 加拿大水电更便宜 要不铝厂也就不在魁北克了。