主题：《南方周末》天窗秀背后的经济学原理 -- 达雅
《南方周末》独家采访奥巴马，接下来开了天窗。本文用经济学原理分析这一事件。分析之前，先对《经济管理》版面的所有河友表示感谢。
《南方周末》开天窗，无非这么几种可能：《南方周末》预留的版面太大，奥巴马说得太少，真理部进行了删除。三种情况可能同时发生，下面分述之。
首先是《南方周末》。必须承认，《南方周末》还是很成功的。一份地方性周报，卖到全中国去，拥有一个相当忠实的读者群，这确实很成功。《南方周末》成功的原因，一是煽情，二是走资本主义，尤其是普世价值派资本主义路线。这在经济学上，属于成功的市场细分。《南方周末》瞄准的是青年右翼和南方有产右翼这两大类人。前者精力过剩，觉得周围全是条条框框，恨不得打个粉碎，所以由衷欣赏《南方周末》煽情而明里暗里反社会主义反政府的路数。后者是走资本主义路线的阶级基础，当然也会喜欢《南方周末》。
但是，2008以来，中国社会总体左转，《南方周末》就麻烦了，因为潜在读者群变小了，而且越来越小。这时候，南方周末有两条路，一是左转，但这搞不好会死得很难看，因为上上下下不知道怎么转，而且转了之后很可能失去现有读者同时拿不到新读者。另一条路是继续右继续反政府，这在政治上叫巩固基本盘，在经济上叫做好主业。这里的算计在于，中国这么大，不可能全转成坚定左派，肯定有一部分死不悔改的。掌握了这部分读者，那就可以活下来，甚至可以壮大，因为左转刊物的右翼前读者总得找自己想看的东西看，那就看《南方周末》吧。
但是呢，要吸引这部分读者也不是容易的，你得对他们的胃口。而经济危机，社会左转，这部分不悔改的就比较容易火大。要讨他们的好，要他们买报纸，那就得比以往更极端更反政府。所以2008以来，《南方周末》不但没有跟着全社会一起左转，反而更右了。这个道理其他人也懂，所以我们就可以看到，2008以来，宪章党，茅于轼，南都系，右派们一个比一个极端，比着右比着脑残。这就是血淋淋的市场经济，深青社们为了各自的生存，正在进行你死我活的竞争。所以可以预言，下一阶段，我们可以看到右派们发表更多的脑残言论，没有最脑残，只有更脑残。
基于上述理由，开天窗最大可能是《南方周末》的作秀。开天窗可以显示《南方周末》最有胆量最有能力反政府，就是比其他右翼刊物强。而且开天窗技术上《南方周末》驾轻就熟。至于说那两句话不知所云，人家要的就是这个效果。人家不怕你说他脑残，怕的是你不说他脑残。
其次说真理部。真理部显然和《南方周末》保持了一种猫和老鼠，或者说资本主义警察和小偷的关系。真理部要打击《南方周末》，但是绝不要把《南方周末》给彻底打垮。这也就是《南方周末》一再被整肃但是右翼立场毫不动摇的原因所在，因为《南方周末》给真理部提供了展示自己工作卓有成效的机会。例如，这次《南方周末》开天窗，真理部马上动起来禁止转载，到年底总结的时候就可以报告“我们及时掐断了不良信息的传播”云云，这样相关人员的编制和奖金都没问题了。而真理部要是真组织大辩论彻底打垮《南方周末》，那以后几年大家都没事干了，相关人员就等着转岗撤编吧。所以真理部完全有可能和《南方周末》默契合作，《南方周末》送上来一大篇不宜发表，真理部立即删除，然后《南方周末》就开天窗。
最后说奥巴马。奥巴马接受《南方周末》专访，其实肯定没什么话要说，真要说肯定拉上《人民日报》、新华社。接受《南方周末》专访，可以看作一种利益输送，帮助《南方周末》巩固右翼刊物老大的地位。当然了，也是对其一贯服从服务美帝利益的肯定和奖赏，以后《南方周末》就可以用这个来压制其他的深青社。别看深青社章程写得冠冕堂皇一致对付人民对付党，真到危机来临，内斗和抱外国人大腿才是他们的当务之急。
本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)
这里是《观点时事》
白房子网站上的采访内容
与刊出内容一致，不存在审查删减
Your first trip to China is ending. So can you use just one sentence to tell us your favorite about the trip?
www.sbanzu.com
PRESIDENT OBAMA: It has been a very productive trip. We have worked on a range of issues of mutual concern to the United States and China, and I think it signifies the continued growth of the relationship that is so important not only to our two peoples but also to the world.
www.sbanzu.com
Q I know you love basketball. So do you think you have time to play basketball while you're being President?
www.sbanzu.com
PRESIDENT OBAMA: You know, I do play, not as often as I used to, but I still play maybe once every week or two. And I enjoy going to games, as well. I wish I could have gone to see the Shanghai Sharks, but it wasn't in my schedule. And I'm looking forward to meeting Yao Ming, who is one of my favorite players.
www.sbanzu.com
Q 2009 is 30 years anniversary of China and U.S. diplomacy. On the press reception you said you welcome China to be a strong, prosperous country, playing a more important role on international affairs. And in the two countries' joint declaration, China also welcomed America to play an important role as a Asia Pacific country. So how do you see the China-America cooperation in Asia Pacific area?
www.sbanzu.com
PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, first of all, I think it's obvious that China's emergence as a major economic power in the world has been one of the most important things to happen over the last two decades. And part of the reason that China has been able to grow so rapidly is because of strong trade ties between the United States and China.
www.sbanzu.com
More importantly, we're seeing our relationship move beyond just issues of trade and economics. We're now consulting with each other on critical issues like climate change that can't be solved unless the United States and China participate.
www.sbanzu.com
And so increasingly I think what you'll see is a broad strategic relationship between the two countries in which not only are we seeking to cooperate on key economic issues that can increase prosperity for both peoples, but that we're also working closely together on everything from climate change to nonproliferation,, to dealing with issues of terrorism, to making sure that we're addressing critical issues like global poverty and food security.
www.sbanzu.com
And I welcome China's role in the world -- on the world stage. As it has more resources and more confidence, it's able to take on more and more responsibilities. And we look forward to being an effective partner with China.
www.sbanzu.com
Q My fourth question is, America has not recognized China's market economic status. So what effort you give to this question?
www.sbanzu.com
PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, keep in mind that China's non-market status under the WTO only applies to a few segments of the economy. Most of China's economic sectors are treated as part of the market economy. That's why trade with the United States is so robust. And my understanding is, is that the Chinese government is taking steps necessary in order for it to achieve a market status by 2015, and certainly we are interested in working with China for such a result.
www.sbanzu.com
Q Do you have to schedule, to work on to recognize China's market economy status?
www.sbanzu.com
PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, this is an issue that involves a lot of technical economic questions. And so what we have done through our strategic and economic dialogue is to create a framework where we can work through many of these detailed issues at a technical level -- hopefully they can be resolved.
www.sbanzu.com
Q We notice China and America has a large content of trade, but America has many restrictions against China on high-technology exportation. Both China and America's companies are not very satisfied on this. So it also restricts the two countries' trade balance. How do you comment on this?
www.sbanzu.com
PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, first of all, I think it's just important to recognize obviously that the United States has the most open markets in the world. That's why China is able to accumulate such significant trade surpluses with the United States. The issue of high-tech exports, though, is something that we are reviewing. I discussed this with President Hu. We do think there are opportunities for U.S. exporters to export high-tech technology or to export high technology to China. And some of these restrictions may be outdated, so we're going to be doing a comprehensive review.
www.sbanzu.com
One of the main goals I think in the G20 summit in Pittsburgh was to agree that we need a more balanced growth pattern in which China is increasing domestic demand, and other surplus countries are increasing domestic demand, and the United States is saving more and exporting more. That I think will help to stabilize the world financial system as well as help create higher standards of living here in China and more jobs in the United States. And so this could be part of a broader approach that we need to take, and that includes looking at trade provisions, it includes what our currency policies are. All these things go into this broader goal of more balanced growth.
www.sbanzu.com
Q You talked twice, in Tokyo and Shanghai, that America not trying to contain China's rise. So how do you plan to carry out this policy? How do you do it?
www.sbanzu.com
PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, I think through the kinds of ongoing discussions and dialogue that we're currently having with China. It is in the United States' interests to have a stable and prosperous China that helps to anchor a stable and prosperous Asia in the same way that Japan's stability, South Korea's stability creates a more peaceful world and greater commercial ties with the United States. The same is true in respect to our policy towards China.
www.sbanzu.com
I think that the only thing that could prevent such a positive outcome is if there are misunderstandings and miscalculations between the two sides. And that's why it's so important for us to have these continuous dialogues both on the economic set of issues, but also on security issues. And the more trust that's been established between the two countries, the less likely such misunderstandings could occur.
www.sbanzu.com
比方说邓玉娇案期间，南方都市报就登出了一篇《告诉你一个真实的邓玉娇》那篇文章的口吻就像是湖北警方的口吻
稍微敏感一点的读者就会想啊，那一篇文章是湖北警方托南方都市报发表的一篇欺骗性文章，南方都市报出于湖北方面的压力不得不发出那样的文章
那个受害者伪装做得就是很不错
我是看不出他们之间的内斗的
相反的是他们彼此之间互相呼应，成掎角之势