主题：欧洲将死,G-2当立! 立此存照 -- parishg

或者中国该怎么预案？ 不吝赐教，多谢。

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times; it ws the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness; it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity; it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness; it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair; we had everything before us, we had nothing before us; we were all going directly to Heaven, we were all going the other way.

----Charles Dickens

1.Control or reduce the percentage of reserve assets in Euro--Euro is not a stable reserve of purchasing power. USD is not much better, but at least USA is an integrated nation.

In the long run, China should increase the percentage of reserve assets in physical gold or store commodities for future use. USD is 100% sure to depreciate against all commodities in the future. It is possible that USD-based global financial system will have a more serious shock in the next 5-7 years.

2.Whenever possible, push Euroland to choose the option of breaking-up, including providing financial incentives. Encourage their internal disagreements and fight.

3.Treat different European nations discriminately--favor certain nations over their exports and help them to create more jobs--so that they will sponsor favorable policies towards China inside EU.

Since major policy change need 100% support inside EU, your purpose is not to ensure that you can really get best result for china--you just want to ensure that EU INSTITUTIONs can not function NORMALLY at all.

4.Use propaganda machine to depict some European nations in bright ways and some others in bad ways. Damage certain nations' financial reputation.

5.Establish bilateral trade agreements and ask for more market opening in certain nations in exchange for the purchase of their government bonds--also ask those nations to grant VISA-FREE TREATMENT TO CHINESE businessmen and tourists. The Chinese passport has been really travel-unfriendly due to those national restrictions. Given that Greeks are not much richer than chinese at all, it is time to DEMAND FOR BETTER TREATMENT FOR CHINESE NOW IN THOSE NATIONS.

In sum: gov. bonds for real and visible benefits.

In the long run, a more consolidated EU is never in China's or America's best interests. EU made the trade policy a federal level decision in 1970s, which dramatically increased EU's leverage against America/China in WTO negotiation. Now all major American M&As must be approved by EU at the same time--unbelievable in 1950s/1960s when America only needed to deal with 15 different nations.

US gov. only wanted a diplomatically unified EU in the past: one voice from its geopolitical allies in Europe. Economic integration and market barriers against Americans are never its targets.

A divided EU will reduce each nation's economic leverage against China. EU nations still have not pooled their voting rights in IMF and World Bank. If they achieve that, that will be US and China's nightmare.

Currently, PIGs(Ireland excluded) nations are creating more divisions within EU. UK is stabbing EU in the back at any moment. Euroland, even passing this current crisis, could not stick together under another Lehman-scale crisis.

Just wait for opportunities to strike the coup d'grace--mostly through the financial market. All PIGs have chronical fiscal problems (Greece/Italy both faked fiscal data to cheat into Euro) and their strong unions ensure that nothing can be done through reform--no politician dares to reform too. Their national debt/GDP ratio will jump quickly in the next 3 years--faster than that in America. If they still hold the same currency as Germany does, their national economies will be in constant stagflation for the next 10 years.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eeef5996-0532-11df-a85e-00144feabdc0.html

strongly recommended

When Europe fell into fiscal crisis, you can start to buy their technology/talents at cheaper price---exactly what China did against Russia/Ukraine after 1990.

大胖子，我坐板凳

Germans prove to the world again that they are narrow-minded people who can not afford the leadership role for the Euroland.

Euro to fall next week!

Germany's Merkel Says Greece Doesn't Need Financial Support

from WSJ.com, new article.

By MARCUS WALKER

BERLIN—German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Sunday said Greece doesn't need financial support and European Union leaders shouldn't make the question of aid for Greece the focus of their summit later this week.

In an interview with Deutschlandfunk radio, Ms. Merkel warned other European leaders against unsettling financial markets by raising "false expectations" that there will be a decision on aid for Greece this week. She said Greece should sort out its own debt problems despite growing calls from other European policy makers for Germany to back stronger support for Greece.

Tensions are growing between Germany and other EU countries over Greece's debt crisis and the bloc's wider economic strains ahead of the EU's summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. Other European policy makers are becoming frustrated at Germany's blocking of stronger action within the 16-nation euro-currency zone to end uncertainty over whether Greece can repay its debts.

View Full Image

EUGREECE

Reuters

German Chancellor Angela Merkel attends a federal state party congress of the Christian Union Party (CDU) in Muenster, Germany on Saturday.

EUGREECE

EUGREECE

Germany's government faces strong domestic resistance from voters and lawmakers to any bailouts of euro-zone members that, unlike Germany, have pursued loose spending policies in recent years.

After Athens said last week that it might turn to the International Monetary Fund for help, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso urged EU member states to agree to a standby-aid package of bilateral loans for Greece at this week's summit. He said that action was needed rapidly.

Ms. Merkel, whose approval is vital for any aid because of Germany's financial muscle, on Sunday rejected that assessment. "I don't see that Greece needs money at the moment, and the Greek government has confirmed that. That's why I'd urge us not to stir up turbulence in the markets by raising false expectations for Thursday's council meeting," she said. "I believe that as long as Greece doesn't need help this issue doesn't have to be at the forefront of our talks," she added.

EU leaders are nevertheless expected to discuss the issue, as many countries are eager to end the months of uncertainty surrounding Greece.

"There's no looming insolvency," Ms. Merkel said Sunday. Later, the German government issued a statement saying Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou told Ms. Merkel in a telephone conversation Sunday that "Greece needs no financial aid."

However, while Greek officials say they aren't asking for money, Prime Minister George Papandreou said last week he wants European governments to put a money offer on the table to show financial markets Greece has a safety net. That would allow Greece to borrow on bond markets at less-punitive interest rates, Mr. Papandreou said. He warned Greece might have to seek IMF help otherwise.

Ms. Merkel recognized that Greece is pressing the EU to make its contingency plans more explicit. "Greece would like to have a certain clarity for an eventuality it can't completely rule out," Ms. Merkel said. She added: "The best solution for the euro is for Greece to resolve its problems by itself—naturally with political support from European leaders."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704454004575135803835301946.html?mod=WSJ_WorldMarkets_LeadStory#articleTabs%3Darticle

complete article, click the link

估计有可能，欧洲的火药桶——巴尔干。

或者是希腊和土耳其，反正老美看土耳其不顺眼，顺便kill掉俄罗斯通过土耳其向西欧送能源的渠道。希腊最近也有求于老美

细节是魔鬼，我喜欢从细节学东西。

花谢忙总。

继续观察吧。

欧洲是当今棋盘上面的四个棋手之一。倒掉一家，对世界格局冲击过大，中、俄不会袖手旁观。——这是外界的因素。需要考虑进去。

所以局势到底如何发展，还要观察。

而当年的东南亚没有这个地位，只是棋子而已。

Portugal Suffering Greek Contagion Pressures EU Bonds

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=akQrIx8SPMHo

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afOnq_UPg6VM&pos=1

So it begins...

Brothers, feast on the flesh of Europe!

欧洲将死,G-2当立! 立此存照

您为何不从自己做起，舍弃大城市的繁华到老家去生活？

看来是如你所说的。