主题：【原创】经济学的客观预测与社会的主观预期 -- MRandson

小道信息。

所以，我在回复您第一个帖子中，才说要去了解国外智库的模型是如何运转的，才知道他们的资金会如何流动。

军事国防，国之重器，很多模型和舆论中不体现出来，出于很多考虑，比如国家安全。聪明人很多。

战争的出现，很多时候是因为经济或政治中出现问题，用常规途径难以解决。这本身就是规律的体现。

可以推导出来，未必需要有能力制造事件的人亲口告诉。

呵呵

没有与时俱进啊！

金融危机早已经揭穿了西方的所谓“模型”和“预测”的可笑性了。

呵呵，最著名的就是他们无数一流战略家预测的，“不战而胜”，“历史的终结”，

呵呵，大错特错，也害的美国陷入了现在的困境。

The list of professors who warned against the real estate bubble is quite long. People who did not stay in States or did not read the English professional media of course are totally clueless. EIU first warned about the GLOBAL (American bubble is smaller than those in UK and Eastern Europe and China) housing bubble in March 2006.

Treasury Secretary Paulson warned Bush Jr. about the risk of credit derivatives when they first met in 2006 (exposed in media in 2008); Tim Geithner, the then-Fed-NY president and current treasury secretary, wanted to control the explosive growth of over the counter derivative market in 2004 and was pushed aside by more powerful tycoons.

Wall Street knew the risk, but they were blinded by their greed. Regulators knew the problems, but there were no enough political will/consensus to change it. Only crisis can move America.

Chinese elites way underestimated the strength/info advantage/smartness of their American counterparties.

While, Europeans are the same-- I remember in August 2008, German/French finance ministers still celebrated the forthcoming collapse of the American dollar empire and strong growth in Euroland, the collapse of Lehman ended that party abruptly and almost crushed the whole Euro-dollar market (NOT exchange market, it is the overseas dollar market in Europe) and then the European financial system.

The pretty and smart French finance minister, Christine Lagarde, is right: Lehman collapse is totally unnecessary or possibly a conspiracy. While, it is necessary because it is the best way to bring Europe and Asia together into recession and expose the sovereign fiscal problems of Euroland.

Now let's wait and see who has the last breath, Dollarland or Euroland. Asians should step aside and wait to prey on the weaker loser. Actually, by holding majority of reserves in dollar, Asians do pick side alread in this life-and-death fight.

China and Japan have stronger financial system now to withstand financial hit, because the former does not allow free capital flow and the latter learned a hard lesson in the last 20 years.

I guess you only read those books translated into Chinese. There are always at least 3 to 4 schools of thoughts who compete to offer advice to the top leaders.

“历史的终结”was written by a Japanese American, who is never in the inner circle.

美国陷入了现在的困境--Iraq war was plotted by those PNAC people, Project for New American Century, which was staffed by Jewish Americans or fresh-out-of-boat Israeli scholars, who still speak English with weird accent.

They are JUST ONE THINK TANK that competes for attention and they have the ear of Dick Cheney and Rumsfield. That's the reason for the Iraq mistake.

Where is Bush Jr.? Everyone knows he is a puppet and idiot. Remember the past 8-year American president is DICK CHENEY, MY DEAR CHINESE READERS.

PNAC ideal was greatly resented by the intellengience community as well as the foreign policy community.

Central bank power money exploded. You can only control the multiplier now. Money is just flooding out of the banking system since banks have incentive to earn profit.

为什么没人预见到危机到来（FT上看过，大意如此）。可能我比较孤陋寡闻，只知道Roubini，Schiller有较早警告过。Krugman预测过亚洲危机，这次事前就没有明确的说法。我知道许多大公司，基金，投行都雇用大量分析员，经济学家专干宏观预测这事，记录也不能说太好。否则为什么大多数大基金都没躲过此劫？有人红过一阵子，就不行了。不知大家对高盛的Abby Cohen还有没有印象？十几年前曾经大红过，我手边还有她2007年的分析报告，现在回头看看，简直惨不忍睹。不知到底是水平还是高盛的阴谋。

总之，这让我觉得，那么多人，多种观点总有几个蒙对的，真正的牛人很少，而且方法不是可重复的。你要是永远坚持看多，说危机已过，你肯定会有对的时候。反之，你坚持悲观，也有一天会对。停摆的钟一天还会对两次呢。

能左右国家决策可以说是在inner circle 了吧？而且还记得那位老兄还在伊拉克战前就把战争的财务帐都算好了，觉得打这场战争有赚。还有，你有好几个智库，如果观点不同甚至相反，决策人听谁的？靠智库的影响力看来不行，（有伊战前车之鉴了）是不是抓阄啊？

VADER. His team of people pretty much hijacked the important positions inside the administration. He pushed out treasury secretary, D. of State secretary Powell,and former CIA director.

It was a disaster to allow puppet Bush Jr. to win over Florida and then entered the white house.

The whole republican establishment were fooled by Dick. He is to America what Julius Caesar is to the Roman Republic.

你有好几个智库，如果观点不同甚至相反，决策人听谁的？

--Republicans and democrats all have different think tanks.

决策人听谁的？--it shows the capability of the leader. Bush Jr. is an idiot and puppet, thus made all the worst choices. I guess any smart American has figured out after 2005 that he is an idiot.

福山就一学者，你当他郎咸平威力加强版就是了。他的言论是宣传不是研究。有能力的专家是不会轻易高呼这种口号式的论调。

大佬们的精力时间有限，很多东西都是听顾问的建议、简报来作决定。要是大佬还要花时间精力去分析一个具体事情。国家大概要瘫痪了。

智库到底是什么东西，实际运行中大概的流程，去问忙总或者雪里？便知道了。固然智库、顾问一类的角色预测可能是常常落空，但是实际工作中依旧要依赖这些机构。有一个不太灵光的指引总会比纯粹地拍脑袋要有意义。准不准是智库水平问题，领导如何取舍是技术问题。

这个论坛是铁手办的吧？

又不是你的苏城的论坛，铁手既然给大家提供了扔蛋的功能，这个当然也是我们网民的权利啊。

你想禁锢读者的批评权利啊？

只许大家给你唱赞歌，不允许负面评价？

太霸道了吧你。

如果你的思想还不适合开放的论坛，建议你自己开一个场子，自己玩去。