主题 ：泛太平洋合作伙伴和中国的崛起(TPP) -- 江湖雨夜

泛太平洋合作伙伴和中国的崛起(TPP)

泛太平洋合作伙伴和中国的崛起

看大家聊TPP，就是泛太平洋合作伙伴（ Trans-Pacific Partnership），Foreign Affairs上正好有篇文章，我大概

总结一下：

1 美国跟韩国已经签署韩美自由贸易协定

2 美国正跟澳洲，文莱，智利，马来西亚，新西兰，秘鲁，新加坡，越南谈判

3 TPP将在10年内把关税讲到零，TPP不但包括货物，还包括服务，知识产权，投资，国企等等

4 没有日本的加入，TPP还是非常的微不足道，大约是美国6％的贸易额。

5 重点来了：日本的加入，传统上美国国会不愿意让日本加入，因为害怕日本的工业实力，日本不愿加入，因为要

保护国内的农业。但是现在日本加入因为三个原因：

A 韩国加入的话，对日本是很大的打击，因为韩国跟日本的产品很接近。

B 灾后，保护农业的动力减弱。

C 中国南海的争端。

分析了日本国内的政治变化，2009年日本首相还倡导“东亚共荣”2011风向变动，改为向美国倾斜，对抗中国。

文章结尾：东亚现在是经典的权力平衡。

感想：不知道美国现在回来还来不来得及，因为就算日本加入，日本，韩国，澳洲最大的贸易伙伴是中国。

美国人会买多少澳洲的铁矿石？多少日韩的汽车呢？前一阵调查丰田给三大汽车舒困。

东南亚国家，日韩的加入可能还是南海的事情。

历史上东南亚国家都是发中国的国难财的：

1 东南亚开始受惠英国对中国的鸦片贸易。

2 朝鲜战争中，日本战后复兴的第一桶金

3 越南战争，东南亚国家大发战争财。

所以东南亚，日韩传统上向美国靠拢时总会获得相当的利益，传统使然，不知道这次如何收场。

On October 14, in a speech to the Economic Club of New York, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton heralded the United States’ so-called pivot toward Asia, announcing, “The world’s strategic and economic center of gravity is shifting east.” Her remarks were part of a recent U.S. effort to reaffirm the United States’ role as a Pacific power, a response to worries among Asia-Pacific states about the rise of China and the United States’ long-term commitment to the region. U.S. President Barack Obama will reinforce this message later this month when he visits several Asian capitals and hosts the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Hawaii. Central to this regional policy is trade: with Congressional approval of the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement now behind him, Obama seeks to cement the United States’ economic role in Asia by finalizing the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, a free trade pact currently being negotiated by Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States, and Vietnam.

When the negotiations are completed, the TPP agreement will bring most import tariffs on trade within the group to zero over a ten-year period. In addition to the merchandise traditionally included in previous such pacts, the TPP will cover services, intellectual property, investments, and state-owned enterprises, among other areas. Given its expansiveness, U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk has touted it as a “twenty-first century” agreement that will lead to a flourishing of regional trade.

But if the TPP were to remain as it is presently constituted -- without Japan’s inclusion -- the agreement would not be the economic boon many hoped it would. The TPP group accounts for only six percent of U.S. trade, about the same fraction as U.S. trade with Japan alone. Japan is a major importer of U.S. goods and services, and particularly of expensive advanced-technology products, such as jet engines, numerically controlled machine tools, and biotechnology products. And in contrast to the U.S. trade deficit with China, which is rising sharply, the trade imbalance with Japan is declining steadily. Washington understands all this, and has called for broadening the TPP to include Japan. Clayton Yeutter, a former U.S. trade representative, and the international trade lawyer Jonathan Stoel recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal that with Japanese participation, “trade in the Asia-Pacific region will explode. It could easily triple or quadruple.”

The United States was not always so bullish on trade with Japan. The idea of a U.S.-Japanese free trade agreement was first proposed by U.S. ambassador to Japan Mike Mansfield in the late 1980s, but, given fears about Japanese economic supremacy, few in the United States gave the idea serious consideration. Tokyo dismissed it as well, mainly because its economic outlook at the time centered on global multilateral trade rather than on regional trade agreements.

Nations of the region need not succumb to the inevitability of a Pacific dominated by China.

All that has now started to change. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns said in Tokyo in October that the United States would “welcome Japan’s interest in the TPP, recognizing of course that Japan’s decision to pursue joining will be made based on its own careful considerations of its priorities and interests.” For its part, Tokyo seems ready to join the talks. Japanese entry has been on the table since October 2010, when then Prime Minister Naoto Kan and his foreign minister, Seiji Maehara, both endorsed it. Of course, all trade issues were put on hold in March 2011 by the triple disasters of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown. But Tokyo spent recent months testing the waters, and Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is expected to announce this week that Japan will join the negotiations.

Japan’s new interest in the TPP stems from three factors. First is the fear generated by the U.S. free trade agreement with South Korea. Japan’s export industry has long been worried about near-identical Korean products in foreign markets, and Seoul’s access to U.S. consumers will only grow once the pact is implemented.

The second element is the declining political clout of Japanese agricultural interests. This group was long opposed to a free trade agreement with the United States because it feared that Japan’s small-scale and highly protected farmers would be overrun by lower-priced imports. But agriculture now accounts for less than 1.5 percent of Japan’s GDP, which has also meant a sharp decline in farm-related employment. The need to rebuild the economy in the wake of the March disasters amplified calls for reform of Japan’s outdated farming sector. This has eased the way for Japan’s exporters, led by the business federation Keidanren, to step up their pro-trade agenda.

The final factor is China’s new foreign policy assertiveness. An early sign was Beijing’s revival, in 2010, of claims to islands in the South China Sea, an issue that has roiled relations between China and its neighbors since the mid-1990s. In 2002, China and its neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations agreed to resolve the claims multilaterally, but China later insisted on dealing bilaterally with each neighbor. China’s foreign minister argued at the time, “China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that’s just a fact.”

Japan bore the brunt of Chinese belligerence in September 2010, when a Chinese fishing trawler rammed one of its coast guard boats. When Japan arrested the trawler’s captain, Beijing demanded that Japan apologize and release him, and it stopped exports to Japan of crucial rare-earth minerals. Maehara, then foreign minister, called China’s reaction “hysterical”; now a central player in the Noda government, he is among Japan’s most popular politicians. In a recent speech in Washington, reflecting Tokyo’s assessment, he expressed worries about how China’s rise “alters the power balance of the game in the region.”

Such statements show that Japan has come a long way from where it was in 2009, when former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama urged Japan to integrate more with Asia and to adopt a policy of “equidistance” between Beijing and Washington. The Noda government has instead reinforced its already close ties with Washington, and many Japanese now argue that Japan must join in the booming transpacific trade to escape the economic doldrums of the past two decades. “Japan should harness the energy of the Asia-Pacific region,” Noda said at a Democratic Party of Japan meeting in August, “and use it for economic recovery.”

The U.S. ambassador in Tokyo, John Roos, recently remarked that Japan’s inclusion in the TPP would be a “game changer.” He is right. A transpacific trade agreement with Japan on board would be a victory for the principle of an open international system. Moreover, as an adviser to Prime Minister Noda stated earlier this month, Tokyo joining the TPP talks would help it “consolidate a strategic environment that gives China the impression that Japan is a formidable country that can’t be intimidated.” Nations of the region need not succumb to the inevitability of a Pacific dominated by China. A Trans-Pacific Partnership composed of Japan, the United States, Australia, and the group’s smaller economies represents a healthier alternative -- one that realists would recognize as a step toward a classic balance of power.

中国可以向美国学习。多好的榜样啊。

1。向南，已经有了“中国东盟自由贸易区”，可以弄个扩大版，把澳大利亚新西兰什么的弄进来。

2。向西，建立“中国中亚自由贸易区”，除了现在上和组织中的中亚国家，还可以把伊朗巴基斯坦等国家都拉进来。

3。向北，建立“中国俄罗斯冰岛自由贸易区”。

4。向东，建立“东南亚及美洲自由贸易区”，但是不包括美国，可以包括加拿大墨西哥以及南美国家。

这是四面，至于八方呢，可以建立

5。中国非洲自由贸易区

6。中国欧洲自由贸易区

7。金砖国家自由贸易区

8。中国太空自由贸易区

呵呵，好办。

最关键的是，美国现在的需求不行。需求这方面还得看中国。

谈谈东南亚国家加入TPP的意愿和对中国制造可能的影响

很多人对TPP不屑一顾是基于短期影响，实际上TPP对中国的打击是一个蚕食鲸吞的长期过程，我认为TPP对中国威胁最大的是东南亚国家的加入，中国制造是中国最大的本钱，而TPP就是要在中国的后院培养出中国制造的最大对手。在以后一段相当长的时间里，TPP和WTO将共存并不断扩大版图，其他国家能在WTO里继续享受低价中国制造的同时慢慢挖中国制造的墙角。

加入TPP对于东南亚国家是利远远大于弊，这些小国本来就不用奢望什么高科技什么害怕经济命脉被掌握在外国人手里，对于小国来说，有大腿抱就算不错了。至于知识产权，学习中国政府的阳奉阴违做做样子就可以了，美国有求于他们不会在乎这些小市场。

东南亚国家的制造业基本上已经被中国挤垮，加入TPP因为零关税、中国的劳动力厂房成本不断提高导致中国制造的价格不断提高，和可以预料的TPP内发达国家对中国制造不断加大贸易壁垒。他们能从中国制造业手中抢到不少蛋糕。

更严重的是中国的大量民营企业和港台企业会因为国内成本的不断提高制造业利润越来越少和为了享受TPP零关税政策，会大举迁厂到东南亚地区，中国公司会帮他们建立产业链，东南亚的人民和中国人一样能吃苦耐劳甚至比中国新生代民工更加能吃苦。他们欠缺的是基础设施，放心，有TPP发达国家的资金支持中国公司会抢着帮他们建。他们的基础比三十年前的中国好得太多。

中国市场对于发达国家是个大市场，但对于东南亚国家来说，中国的所谓大市场对他们来说就是只能卖卖原材料，一旦他们自己开始借助TPP大规模发展制造业,他们自己都成原料进口国了，中国制造对他们来说是最大的竞争对手，发达国家将成为他们的大市场，东南亚国家反而成了中国基建电信等公司的大市场了，中国东盟自由贸易区将没有任何吸引力。在这个缅甸都和中国翻脸和南海危机的时代，我可以负责任的说，东南亚所有国家会抢着进TPP，问题是美国让不让加入（比如缅甸加入的条件将是昂山素姬上台）。

中国的应对方式还是我在另一篇文章中说得主动推翻新三座大山扩大内需，打破区域经济壁垒建立全国一体化经济系统，转变以外需为主的经济发展模式。出口主导型经济模式已经走不下去了，三十年一轮回，中国又到了需要大变革的时代。

TPP是美国的阴谋

CCTV报道里评论说：TPP是美国制定规则来限制、孤立、排斥中国的阴谋。

TPP里有几项规则是专门针对中国的：1、关税降到零；2、农产品不设限；3、禁止国有企业存在。

是的，很认同

这次美国高调“重回”东亚时机非常好，借东南亚，越南，日本跟中国南海争端的茬，是妙棋。

美国人看来是10年反恐梦醒时分了，虽然在东亚是“从未离去”，但2009鸠山重提“东亚共荣”时，也可以看出美国在东亚的“荒政”，现在把目光对准世界上经济发展最快的地区，呵呵。

好棋归好棋，TPP最终定型为一个什么模式倒是非常令人好奇的，如果能形成以美国为中心的类是二战后的经济联盟，那是相当有生命力的，如果只是几个失落的国家，为了反中国扩张，聚在一起，那是没啥前途的。

如果只是看不惯中国，而无切实的经济利益，是不长久的。

美国现在能不能充当战后开放市场的位置是令人怀疑的，如果更进一步要收割加入的国家，那就更不可能了。

上次二战后美国为中心的贸易体系崩溃的标志很好玩，OPEC搞石油禁运，跟美国好的国家都在名单上，日本和欧洲为了不再名单上出现，主动与OPEC修好。这次，如果中国买东西的时候说，如果在TPP名单上的，我不买，那就好玩了，瞎说两句，哈哈

复 TPP是美国的阴谋

那当然

WTO没弄好，这次可要把条款按照中国量身定做，哈哈

虽然如此

这个世界不是只有东南亚才能与中国互惠互利，而且，97金融危机之前东南亚不也就是这个地位么。

至于是不是以外需为主，昨天新闻说了逆差的可能性在增加，我想TG是不怕抛弃出口主导的；只是，如果要抛弃、一定要给欧美制造更多的麻烦、给自己制造更多的叫牌资本。

至于东南亚国家愿意抱美国的大腿那就抱好了；原来他们就是这么抱的，现在，美国没落了、抱回去更好，省的一帮蠢材占中国的便宜（一远房亲戚，二十年前跟着做工程的公司在新加坡搞建设，那会儿就说，他们那里的人太笨、只能干体力活；以我的经验看，所言不谬。这些人，中国干嘛要养？美国养着好了）

复是的，很认同

中国不会说这种话

只会光明正大的指出来，哪里哪里的产品有问题、哪里哪里的人啊船啊随意跑到中国的领土领海，我们不得不1234567，blahblahblah

你说的是中国制造水平包括新型飞机发动机，精密车床吗？

转变经济增长方式至少提出过20几年了，转变了吗？

出口导向的增长方式实际上是中国老百姓补贴出口商与外国消费者。

很多事，20几年前就清楚了，为何不变？因为掌权的利益来源于此，所谓的变，就是变他们自己碗里的肉，谁愿意？

中国已经是资本输出国

此一时，彼一时也。光未来五年，中国8万亿美元的进口是多大的购买力啊。中国不仅仅意味着庞大的消费市场，本身也已经是资本输出国。

东南亚是不会实质性进入tpp的，水会混，但东南亚的心会在东盟10+1.东南亚和中国可以加快推进区域一体化建设，高速铁路，高速公路，快速水运和空港，人流物流将快速流动，最终实现彼此免签出入。中国则要提供安全保障，不仅仅是国土安全，还要是区域货币安全。而这就需要中国开始实质性转型，只有依托人民的力量，才能确保安全，不然堡垒内部首先就塌台了。

复 TPP是美国的阴谋

也是控制日本的阳谋。

为了防止日本倒向中国。控制日本是美国立刻可以做到的，其它国家就难讲了。