主题：【原创】顽强的阻击 -- 大众河蟹

I can understand those official's thoughts and your idea,my worry is that those officials may not be good trader at all.

To begin such a great compain with such a bad start is not a good sign. Sigh!

New price is 4609$ on LME.

A trader is a professional, just as a Go player. You can not defeat Li Changgao just because you have more money power.

Well today all the metals are down except Copper. "挤中国，就等于挤黄金" You used to have one problem and now you get yourself into two problems.Copper is going up and Gold is going down. You got double screezed. Actually Copper and Gold are both overbought and an intermediate term correction is inevitalbe.I think GOLD is in much more danger of facing a big and probably nasty correction. Copper should also go down and but it probably will do better than GOLD. The physical demand for Copper is more real than GOLD and the supply for copper is tighter than gold.By intervening in the market,contrary to what they had hoped for,国储 deferred the natural correction of copper and actually make things even worse. I bet there won't be any meaningful correction in copper unless the large short position of 国储 has been flushed out. 刘trader's short position is a big mistake. What you suggested, since you probably know something about 国储, I assume that's also their game plan, 国储 is not only not correcting the mistake but compounding the mistake. They are playing with fire. Being wrong is OK but staying wrong is unacceptable.

我们每年进口200万吨铜，照您trader的想法，那就是nature short, 您怕是一辈子也cover不完吧？ 长期供求我们都不知道，至少有recession的时候吧。价格短期的波动说明不了什么问题，如果我没记错的话，国家发现问题的时候，黄金在460，铜已经4200了，真要hedge的话，现在还有的赚呢。

您说了很多，那有什么可行的方案吗？我早就提到，问题的关键一是美元贬值，二是恶意操纵。对第一点，我想全世界都在想办法，买黄金从来都是一招。对第二点，举个特别的例子，饥荒时奸商囤积粮食，也可以认为是应该的，供求失衡嘛！为什么中国有的东西就没人挤呢？而且我们到纽约芝加哥被goldman欺负，到伦敦被barclay欺负，除非我们无所作为。我们可以看看铁矿石，需求应该已经到逆转了，可若还拘泥在经济层面，明年的谈判还是uphill battle。中国难道就不该有点国家意志吗？

铜比黄金好用？我不知道你从何得来的结论。至少现在黄金还是世界上大多数国家认可的储备，8块金币就能买一顿铜。美国8000吨，德国8000吨，法国记不清楚了，应该不差多少，石油储备大家都有，可没听谁弄堆铜存着，俄国人刚有了点钱，马上要把储备从500吨提高到1000吨。猜猜中国8000亿美元里有多少黄金储备？

首先，刘先生我相信是个过得去的trader,走到今天着步另有其原因，这里不多说了。

short 只后涨到4200没COVER是个大错，这里也不多说。至于用黄金来对冲肯定是坏主意，职业炒手都不会这么做，错了就是错了，不要试图MAKE UP.

哪目前乍办？第一，老实报告温总理，看看国家是否支持。如果国家不支持那就回天乏术，那就先在国内抛光库藏，同时在LME COVER. 这条路不能指望啥好结果，但比哪些人现在啥主意都没有要强。整个过程注意保密。那些人前段时间的表演（否认认授权，130万等等，这些东东不明朗时候杀伤里很大，亮牌了就不灵了，TRADERS都不是吃素的）完全把戏演砸了。

第二，如果国家支持，比如说给10b$来控制铜价，那就先全转成远期的，接着斗下去。但要有长期的市场方向，像这种在LME大量作空完全是胡来，应该像美国的原油储备一样，基本是作多的，暴涨时候出来抛空。

Here is my solution:

Short term if China has the copper then use the strategic reserve to make the delivery. By doing this you flood the market with copper in a very short period and this will cause the copper to plunge. Anyway copper is already due for a correction. This will flush the short term speculators out and you can buy back your copper gradually and slowly. If China doesn't have the copper, then bite the bullet cover your shorts and take your loss. Since all the short term buyers are already in the market, there is no buyer left except China who needs to buy to cover. Once china's short position is cleared, short term speculator will take profits and as there is no buyer left copper will drop. This will trigger the stop loss and cause copper to drop even further.

However none of these will change the long term supply/demand picture. Sooner or later copper will start to rise again. Unless China change its export oriented, growth at any cost economic policy, you have no choice but to be squeezed in the resource market. China's manufacturing industry is vastly over capacity.The cutting throat competation only makes things even worse. Say you have 100 manufacturers that produce products using copper as raw material. Actually there is only enough demand for five of them. You don't have pricing power for your products and your costs are going straight up. What do you do? Then you expand your capacity even further hoping you can gain enough volume to survie. Well all the other 99 guys will do the same thing and it ends up with even more capacity and even more demand for copper. How the copper can go down?

See you and I have a basic difference in the view of market. You seem to believe you could control the price by buying and selling in the paper(future) market. I believe the long term supply/demand sets the price. The buying and selling just create noise.

The industrial demand for copper is real and growing fast. Other than jewelry, gold is mainly a monetary commodity and there is really not not much use of gold. Unlike copper which get deleted when being used, gold digged out 1000 years ago is still good.You mentioned that central banks could buy more gold for their reserves. But you forgot to mention that central banks are constantly selling gold from their reserves.As a competitor to paper money, it is not a surprise that central bankers love to see gold price lower.

Don't get me wrong. I agree GOLD is also in a bull market and will probably go to 800 ultimately. However based on supply/demand, I think copper might have a better performance than gold.

Here is an example on how the speculators tried to manipulate the price against fundamentals and how it did not work.

In the early 1980s the Hunter Brothers had cornered the silver market. The Hunter brothers are billionairs who made their fortunate in the Texas oil boom. Within less than a year, they pushed the silver price from a few dollars to 90 dollars. However there is really no shortage of silver and the price subsequently collapsed. For the next twenty years silver trades from 3 dollars to 5 dollars. The Hunters brothers lost all their money and had to file for bankcrupcy.

This example indicates that the international speculators are really not that powerful. They can move the price temporary but they cann't control the price even if they have billions of dollars. Ultimately the supply/demand sets the price.

You say:我们到纽约芝加哥被goldman欺负，到伦敦被barclay欺负

If what you say is true and the speculation by goldman&barclay is the reason why prices are up, then you should see the inventory on these exchanges going up not down as it is(by the way the inventory for copper is at its history low). Why? Because in most cases, Goldman and Barclay will not take physical delivery. What do they need the copper for? They are paper traders and they will rollover their positions.Only end users and their agents take physical delivery.

it is 90$ in today's dollar value. Many silver producer went to bankruptcy because they went to short too early. On the contrary, most professionals survived because they just sat there and did nothing.

That's one of the most famous bull market in modern history.Every serious trader should learn something from this event.

等着看最终分晓，上天保佑，阿弥陀佛