主题：【原创】顽强的阻击 -- 大众河蟹
大部分已经转仓了，戏还长着呢。
〉〉You seem to believe you could control the price by buying and selling in the paper(future) market.〉〉
不知您从哪里推论而来？请不要随便贴标签。
1，就事论事，事情已经发生（刘short),我们讨论如何解决。您也提到短期没机会cover, 只有转仓。焦点是你和老成都认为不该long黄金去hedge，可现在从效果看，并没有亏。至于长期黄金和铜哪个更适于避险，甚至投资，可以争论，我也不想说服你，我是宁要黄金。打击投机者，不管牛市熊市，你该做的什么时候都要做，国储肩负的任务不是您任何一个小trader可以比的，时机嘛，当然重要，但现在形势比人强，人家都掏家伙了，您还有机会选择吗？
2，市场操纵，俺没经验，您没trade过几十万吨铜，我也没有。您可以事后认为刘不谨慎，认死理，但美国人，英国人占了地利，是无可否认的事实，常在河边走，没有不湿鞋的。市场和人哪个大，俺这里好像没有涉及。
3，其实问题的根源是美元货币膨胀。这会困扰中国相当长一段时间。您一个trader可以不作为，我们这么大个国家，可能吗？
国家知道的时候，已经有几十万空仓了。现在的问题是如何”救火“。
至于将来，也不会那么简单吧。again,国储的主要任务不是trading。即使是trading，国内这种机制，能出什么像样的人呢？不一样牛市赚小钱，熊市亏大钱。
我觉得我们现在缺的就是时间，如果有比较充足的时间的话，我想我们应该有很大的余地来运筹帷幄。
申明一下我没有内部消息来源,所以只能依据一段时间以来的观察做个粗略的分析.
首先从国储局开始应对失据可以判断，国储局并没有意识到这个“突发事件”更没有足够的经验来处理这一事件。
其次外界解读国储局的拍卖是为了影响伦敦市场价格，我觉得有这种可能但不是重点。重点应该在于间接的示范效应：一是中国无法消化价格如此高的铜，给炒作的基金提个醒；二是方便就转期进行的谈判。好的情况下，拍卖真地影响了国外的价格，减少了我方损失。坏的情况是，亮了库存不足的底牌，刺激价格再次上涨。现在看来出现的是第二种情况。尽管如此，总的来看，我方赢得了一定讨价还价的时间和筹码，也是没有办法的办法。
最后我觉得纯粹从市场操作来解决问题肯定要吃亏，而且是拖的越久吃亏越大。所以我的对策是延期、实物交割和相关配套措施三管齐下。具体而言：一是选择对象延展合同。不妨考虑以市场进入、长期合作、战略结盟等手段联合一些对我感兴趣的对象，降低延期成本和市场炒作气氛；二是尽可能地交割实物，目的也是减少损失，同时在市场上伺机释放信息，遏制价格恶意上涨；三是各部门联合发布政策，包括立即停建、缓建铜冶炼、加工等项目，对个别种类的铜进口采取进口限制措施等。另外，可以尝试绕过期货市场直接跟供应方谈判和侧重铜矿石或原料铜的交易（它们的价格相对比较稳定）。从长远来看，直接与供方交易应该是我们逐步争取市场定价权的重要措施之一。我们目前吃亏就吃在试图一步到位直接主导期铜市场，而且不善于部门联合或者集团作战。最后，利用各种资源向市场发布相互矛盾的性质（我称之为“多向的杂声”）也是手段之一。它的目的就搅乱市场预期、提高炒作成本，效果上也会比释放单向的、可percieved的消息好一些。
You and I disagree a lot but that's just opinion. I did a little research on your gold hedging claim. I am using Goldman Sachs Excess Return index. From Oct.1 2005 to Dec.14, gold is up 7.67% while copper is up 18.39%. See it doesn't work at least till now. I highly doubt it would work in the future.
We all know that the Chinese GOV steped in around mid Nov.
Anyway, we will tell over time.
但是炒过股票，有过没止损而硬来结果被Margin call
的惨痛教训。所以觉得bshu和老成都说的更有道理。
short on copper, long on gold，极有可能两边都作
反了，那会损失更大。
I have an interesting story to share.Jesse Livermore,a legendary trader in the 1900s once got trapped in a similar situation as 国储. He was holding a huge short position in Oak that he couldn't get out. The market was turning against him and he was desperate. Then he figured out that trader A was cornering Oak and pushing Oak up against him. And the same trader A is also pushing Wheat up against trader B who is a powerful businessman. Now Livermore had a plan. Instead of trying to push down Oak directly. He started to attack Wheat. His aggressively selling caused the wheat to drop quickly. As expected once the traders saw wheat plunging, they thought trader B was determined to break the corner in Wheat. Naturally they thought B is also going after A in Oak. So they started to sell Oak as well. Now Oak also started to crumble. Livermore took this opportunity quickly and covered all his shorts for a net small loss. This is a narrow escape as very soon oak started to risk again. Had he not covered he would be killed.
I am thinking maybe 国储.could learn something from this story.It's reasonable to assume that the same traders who are screezing 国储.in copper are also heavily long in Zinc Lead or Aluminium etc. If instead of trying to push down Copper directly, 国储.attacks these traders in other base metals. Once the speculators realized 国储.is determined to break their corner in other base metals,and also 国储.might have enough copper to break their copper corner, they would panic and run. Copper will plunge and 国储.might be able to dig itself out the hole.
我国不是稀有金属大国么？
难道不能操纵稀有金属，如钛的价格来抗衡？
石油欧佩克组织不就以其石油生产量操纵着石油价格。
手头有了筹码，就不怕耗时间。投机基金怕的就是耗时间。
还是好好整备好自己的原材料加工工艺，和重工业体系重要。
这个是比较奇怪，大约是管理部门对地方企业的出口行为没有有效的约束力吧。
如果从各国把自己需要的矿山买下来，并下苦功把加工工艺提上去，
才是治本之法，不然岂不是让人玩得团团转。
据我所知，日本的炼油公司都因为中国的石油需求而发了，中国自己
的炼油能力赶不上需要，现在请日本公司帮着炼呢。把这几个炼油公
司从经营困境中救了出来。
contract simply dropped to below 4000.
I guess they simply covered all the short.
By the way, gold dropped to below 500, they must cover copper if they long gold at the same time.