五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:问:为何共产主义与民主这么不相容呢? -- xiaomo

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家园 上次看到有人问民主和经济发展的关系

记不起来谁在哪个帖子里面问的了,贴一篇academic paper来说一下吧:

Empirical Linkages Between Democracy and Economic Growth

Abstract:

Using cross-sectional and pooled data for up to 125 countries over the period from 1960 to 1985, this paper evaluates the two-way linkages between democracy and economic growth. The effects of income on democracy are found to be robust and positive. The effects of several measures of democracy on growth are assessed in a comparative growth framework in which growth of per capita GDP depends negatively on initial income levels, as implied by the convergence hypothesis, and positively on rates of investment in physical and human capital. Adjusting for the simultaneous determination of income and democracy makes the estimated direct effect of democracy on subsequent economic growth negative but insignificant. Allowing for the possible positive indirect effect of democracy on income, flowing through the positive effect of democracy on education and investment, tends to offset the negative direct effect of democracy on economic growth. The general result of the growth analysis is that it is still not possible to identify any systematic net effects of democracy on subsequent economic growth.

中文大意:普遍观点是民主对经济有没有显著性的影响从实证上来说是不确定的,然而经济对民主的正向影响是确定的。

JY们(“不顾实际把民主当成绝对真理的本末倒置的民主原教旨主义者”),应该好好学习,别再启蒙民智了!

补充:Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4066.

NBER是什么?嗯,NBER说美国经济衰退了,那就是衰退了,美国政府再怎么说都没有用的。所以,我还有一句话想跟“民主原教旨主义者”们说,作为民主原教旨主义者,你们应该学习领会这份文件的精神,对那个令人遗憾的“negative but insignificant” effect做出一个有利于自己的解释,否则跟CPI斗争的老百姓是不太可能站在你们那一面的

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