主题：12/23/2009 Market View -- 宁子

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX: 45.02; +0.46

VXN: 43.29; +1.38

VXO: 46.93; +0.97

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.79; +0.04

NASDAQ

Stats: -10.81 points (-0.71%) to close at 1521.54

Volume: 1.311B (-20.73%). Holiday light and then some.

Up Volume: 395.327M (+35.193M)

Down Volume: 916.405M (-352.274M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.76 to 1. Still mild but NASDAQ is still sliding.

Previous Session: Decliners led 2 to 1

New Highs: 10 (+5)

New Lows: 109 (-6)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

Slipped through the 10 and 18 day EMA (1539, 1534) but is still easily holding the recent three week range and above the late October low at 1506. That is fine and dandy as long as it continues its lateral move on low trade and continues showing the good price/volume action. Has that early December peak to clear (1603) as well as the 50 day EMA (1622) along the way. It is getting to the lick log where it needs to continue the rally.

SOX (-2.80%) is really at the point it needs to hold as it is at the October low. Time for the chips to step up.

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg

SP500/NYSE

Stats: -8.47 points (-0.97%) to close at 863.16

NYSE Volume: 984.406M (-19.28%). Extreme low volume as well.

Up Volume: 298.698M (+32.256M)

Down Volume: 662.744M (-280.34M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.56 to 1. Modest negative breadth as both the large and small caps were pretty much on par.

Previous Session: Decliners led 2.24 to 1

New Highs: 25 (-2)

New Lows: 82 (-12)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP500 slipped again but it is still in the three week range with a bottom near 850. That bottom is also coincident with the October closing low and a mid-December interim low. An orderly range from 850 to 915-20 with decent price/volume action. SP500 is getting to the bounce point. Question is, will it make a serious rebound to challenge the 50 day EMA (923) or just another bounce upside in the range. At this juncture we would take either.

SP600 (-1.38%) slipped as well but held right at the 18 day EMA on the close. That puts SP600 in a bit better position than most of the indices and if the small caps are going to lead and make the first break through the 50 day EMA, well, we can live with that. Small caps are early cycle economic stocks and they should lead the way higher or at least be a big part of the move higher.

SP600 Chart: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.JPEG

SP400 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP400.jpeg

DJ30

The blue chips lost ground for the fifth straight session on the heels of that strong surge the prior Tuesday. As with the other indices, volume has left the building and the Dow has lost traction. It gave up 8500 and the early October closing low, but it is still easily over the late October closing low and the early December bottom. It needs, however, to hold between here and that early December low at 8140 and make another higher low and use that to take on the 50 day EMA.

Stats: -100.28 points (-1.18%) to close at 8419.49

VOLUME: 174M shares Tuesday versus 211M shares Monday. The very light trade continues, and as with the other indices, that at least shows sellers are not surging in number, just a lack of buying interest.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg