主题：【翻译】现阶段外汇市场的一些动态 -- 然后203

关于外汇市场的一些编辑和翻译，本来是想学习嘉木姐的，但是PIMCO的东西不太好翻，专业知识和外语能力都有待加强。那么就从比较简单的东西入手好了。

文章来源多是从YAHOO！找的。欢迎批评指正。

1、外链出处

Risk sentiment remains the dominant catalyst for the Yen, with prices tracking closely in line with the perennial safety asset – the US Treasury bond. Indeed, the correlation between a trade-weighted index of the Japanese currency’s average value against a basket of its major counterparts and the 2-year note stands at 0.78 – the highest in three months – on 20-day percent change studies. The relationship makes sense considering carry trades – yield-harvesting bets in favor of currencies attached to countries with high borrowing costs – tend to be financed in the perennially low-yield Yen. At times of risk aversion, these positions are unwound along with losses in other assets seen as representing a preference for return over safety, including stocks and commodities, leading JPY higher.

On balance, this puts the onus on US economic data as traders continue to look to the health of the world’s largest consumer market as the bellwether of the global recovery at large, particularly as other engines of worldwide growth increasingly falter. Indeed, Europe has been sidelined as the region tries to unwind its sovereign debt burden, Japan remains in deflation (which is expected to deepen again in July after two months of moderation), and China is willfully putting on the brakes amid fears of asset bubbles and runaway inflation.

Sizing up the US economic calendar, the path of least resistance points to continued risk aversion in the week ahead. The spotlight falls on the second revision of second-quarter US GDP figures, with the number expected to show that the annual growth rate slowed to 1.4 percent in the three months through June, the slowest in two years. Meanwhile, Existing Home Sales are set to drop 12.9 percent in July – the most in six months – while New Home Sales continue to hover at three-decade lows. Durable Goods Orders offer a bit of good news, with forecasts pointing to a 3 percent increase in July following two consecutive months of losses, but this release in isolation is unlikely to prove sufficient to stem the tide of risk aversion in and of itself.

All things considered, this suggests the Japanese Yen is likely to extend its already formidable five-week winning streak as stock markets lead the spectrum of risky assets lower, boosting demand for the safety-linked currency.

目前的市场风险情绪是日元行情的主要影响因素，其价格着与多年来市场上的安全资产--美国国债保持着紧密联系。事实上，对20天百分率的研究表明，日元平均价格的贸易加权指数与一篮子主要交易货币和2年期国债的相关性保持在0.78的水平上---达到了三个月内的最高点。这种相关性给套利交易提供了空间---所谓套利交易即融入一直公认的低利率日元，然后转换成高借贷率的货币以此获取利差收益。在风险厌恶的时刻，这些套利交易的头寸在其他资产比如股票，商品面临风险的情况下会转向安全的地方，这就促使日元走高。

总的说来，焦点在于美国经济数据，因为交易商们继续将这个世界上最大的消费市场的健康视为全球经济复苏的前导，尤其在当前世界范围内其他引擎的增长日益显得摇摇欲坠。事实上，欧洲一直在试图解决它的主权债务负担，日本仍然处于紧缩（预计在经过两个月的缓和后，7月份会再次加深）。中国正在担忧资产泡沫和失控的通胀，从而蓄意踩紧刹车。

事实上，欧洲一直在该地区缺阵试图解开它的主权债务负担，日本仍然（预计将在7月再次加深经过两年的温和个月），中国是故意把刹车中的资产泡沫的忧虑通货紧缩和失控的通货膨胀。

看一下美国财经日历，本周内在风险厌恶的持续上几乎没有什么支撑。市场焦点是美国第二季度GDP数据的第二次调整，预期6月以来3个月的年度增长速度将放缓至1.4%，为两年来的最慢。同时，7月份现房销售数据将调整为下降12.9%，为六个月以来降幅最大。新屋销售持续徘徊在30年的低点。耐用品订单提供了一个好消息，在连续两个月的下跌之后，预期7月将有3%的增长。但这不太可能为顶住风险厌恶的洪流提供足够的支撑。

所有的事情都暗示着日元将扩大其已经取得的可观的五周连续上涨记录。同时股票市场将引领风险资产走低，增强了对于安全货币的需求。

2、外链出处

FX OUTLOOK-Dollar set to extend gains in week ahead

By Steven C. Johnson

Aug 20 (Reuters) - The dollar and yen should extend gains next week as worries the global economy is losing steam burnish the currencies' safe-haven appeal.

The bond market is suggesting the U.S. economy could be headed for a double-dip recession, and with summer winding down and markets bracing for highly anticipated U.S. growth data on Friday, investors probably won't be eager to bet against it.

Risk aversion has crept back into the market and investors are reluctant to take on new positions in very illiquid trading conditions, said currency strategist Michael Woolfolk.

"The last few weeks have reflected concern about the U.S. outlook and its impact on the global economy, and that in turn has bolstered safe-haven flows into the dollar and yen," said BNY Mellon currency strategist Michael Woolfolk. "We expect those trends to continue."

The big event for markets is on Friday when the United States releases a revised estimate of second-quarter growth. The first reading in July had the economy expanding at a 2.4 percent rate. Economists polled by Reuters expect that to be cut sharply to 1.5 percent this time around.

"The gravitational pull of that report will probably pull the euro down and push the dollar and yen higher for most of the week," Woolfolk said.

RISKS ABOUND

The dollar had been sold heavily in July and early August as a string of weak U.S. economic data suggested the recovery was stalling. Decent euro zone data blunted worries about high debt levels in Spain, Greece and elsewhere.

But demand has since rebounded, partly because investors now worry slower U.S. growth will put the brakes on global growth. The U.S. two-year Treasury yield was at a record low and the benchmark 10-year note pricing last around 2.57 percent, about a 17-month low.

A shrinking yield differential has hurt the greenback against the yen, which has rallied to a 15-year peak around 85 per dollar. But the U.S. currency has rebounded sharply against the euro and other major currencies.

Yields on benchmark German bunds have also slipped. Neither the Federal Reserve nor the European Central Bank have shown any inclination to tighten monetary policy. A top ECB policymaker on Friday even suggested authorities should extend emergency support to euro zone banks past year end.

Next week, investors will watch Germany's IFO report to gauge business confidence in the euro zone's largest country and continue to monitor peripheral bond yields.

"Since early August, a pervasive sense of risk aversion has taken hold of all markets," Brown Brothers Harriman strategists wrote in a note to clients, adding that bodes well for the dollar.

The dollar and yen are both seen as safe-havens in times of anxiety. Both are also used to finance purchases of higher-yielding currencies and assets when risk appetite is high and tend to rebound when those trades are unwound.

Japanese policymakers fear a strong yen will deepen deflation by making exports more costly, pushing down the Nikkei and hurting consumer confidence.

To that end, traders will watch for signals from a meeting between Japan's prime minister and central bank chief set for early next week. Intervention to weaken the yen, however, is seen as unlikely in financial markets.

As some economists have pointed out, years of deflation and lower wage costs mean the yen is not nearly as overvalued on a real basis and at current levels may not be quite so painful.

While yen strength looks to remain in vogue for now, Brown Brothers says the dollar is likely to rise above 90 yen by year end as low Japanese yields eventually encourage domestic investors to seek higher returns elsewhere.

由于担忧全球经济失去引擎，货币避险需求上升，下走美元和日元或将扩大涨幅。

债券市场暗示美国经济可能面临双底衰退，伴随着夏季正逐步结束，而且上周五市场表现了对美国发布预料之中的经济数据的支撑，因此投资者可能不会急于看跌美元。

外汇策略师Michael Woolfolk表示，风险厌恶已经悄悄回到了市场和投资者都不愿意在非常缺乏流动性的市场上开立新头寸。

BNY梅隆外汇策略师Michael Woolfolk认为，过去几周，关于美国经济前景以及对全球经济的影响得到了市场的反映，这反过来带动了避险资金流向美元和日元。而这个趋势将会延续。

对市场的一件大事是上周五美国公布了修正后的第二季度经济增长数据预期。7月份第一次发布的数据预期经济将增长2.4%。路透的经济学家预计这次将大幅降低预期至1.5%左右。

Michael Woolfolk认为,这份报告将推动欧元走低并将在下周的大多数时间里面让美元和日元走得更高。

由于一连串的经济数据表示美国经济复苏正陷于停滞，美元在七月份和八月早期被大量沽出。而欧元区的表现则由于对西班牙希腊和其他地方的高债务水平而被削弱。

但此后的需求回升，部分原因是投资者现在担心美国经济放缓会让全球经济减速。美国2年期国库券收益率是达到纪录低点，最近的基准10年期美国国债价格在2.57%左右，处于17个月新低。

缩小的利差已经伤及美圆兑日元汇率，令日元飙升至15年高点，达到1：85附近然而美元兑欧元和其他主要货币已经大幅反弹。

德国国债基准收益率也下滑。无论是美联储还是欧洲央行都没有表现出任何紧缩货币政策倾向。上周五一位欧洲央行的高级政策制定者甚至建议欧洲货币当局应该在年内扩大对欧元区银行的紧急支持。

下周投资者将关注德国IFO报告，以评估欧元区最大国家的商业信心，并继续监视周边债券收益率。

Brown Brothers Harriman 的分析师在给客户的报告中写道，自8月初以来，普遍的风险规避意识已已席卷所有市场，而这将有利于美元。

在这样一种焦虑的环境中美元和日元成为了避险天堂。两者在风险偏好升高的时候都被视为高收益率的货币和资产，在没有遭受压力的情况下往往倾向于展开反弹。

日本的决策者则担心强势日元将让出口产业遭受损失并由此而加重通缩，推低日经指数和伤害消费者的信心。

为此，投资者将留意来自下周初的日本总理和央行行长会议发出的信号。相应的干预会削弱日元，然而，在金融市场这被认为不大可能出现。

正如一些经济学家所指出的那样，通货紧缩，降低工资成本意味着日元几乎没有一个真正的基础被高估，在目前的水平可能不会这么痛苦。

虽然日元眼下看起来仍然强劲，Brown Brothers 则认为日元兑美元可能在年内升值至90日元的水平，因为日本的低收益率将最终促使国内的投资者到其他地方寻找更高水平的回报。

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红字部分是翻译过程中比较费力的，很蹩脚，词不达意的感觉。

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