主题：【原创】四面楚歌之美国篇 美国金融之庞氏局 -- 井底望天

出处也请兄台赐教

阿尔温 托夫勒的《第三次浪潮》 和 奈斯比特的 《大趋势》 。

当年念大学时拜读《第三次浪潮》，就想不明白一个问题：离开刀的刃还能存在么？卖的是刀还是刃？买的刀还是刃？

可以说，就是这样的书沦丧了美国人实业立国制造强国的民族意识，走上了“赌博资本主义”道路。

真正推动国家发展的不是资金本身，而是资金所用来换取的资源、与伴随资金到来的先进管理、先进技术和当地的人力、基础设施等产生的综合效益。

这道理换到个人身上也一样。就光借钱，那么我借钱前后的财产额是不变的。我要发财，必须是我借的钱能通过我的运作发生增值，而且增值的幅度要超过借钱的利息。

但是，个人可以靠买空卖空挣钱，国家可没法靠这种方式增强实力，除非象井大说的，这货币是你家发行的，可以凭借金融税收向他国抽血。

目标是资金账户无管制下的自由浮动兑换率，然后取消外管局。

内部有流言，称有人是美国间谍。呵呵。

蒙代尔三角能被广泛接受，蒙代尔被称为欧元之父，说明他的理论即使有缺点，也肯定有可取之处。人民币早晚要资本账户开放的，问题肯定会有的，但机遇也是并存的。

中日韩，港澳台加上东盟还有巴基斯坦，缅甸一类。（应该小20亿人吧）如果能形成以人民币为主要储备货币的地区。欧元再彻底占住全欧洲，那货币三国就基本形成了。我们再联手欧洲支持海元，就能基本把美元压回南北美洲去。

我们现在的M1,M2即使按现在的汇率算，也都比美国高了，货币流通速度在各个实体产业间各国相差应该不会太大（比如造一辆汽车，从源头钢铁到最后轮胎装配，生产周期应该不会相差太大），说明我们这么多货币对应的生产力可能已经高于米帝了。至于米帝衍生品他几百万亿也好，那都是无根之水，他的军队只要动不了中欧的势力范围，他在中欧势力范围的一切信用就都是虚的。

中日欧如果能一条战线，绝对够米帝喝一壶的。

有意思。

看起来很像是核心圈子已经达成一致了

哪里的提议？国会？有提案编号吗？

>>>>>在2008年金融危机爆发后，美国还出现了一个将主要对冲基金和投资银行，和美国国防部成立共同管理小组的提议，来协调在什么情况下，必须运用美军的军事能力，来保护美元的地位，和美国金融机构在世界经济和国际金融次序中的统治地位，来保证获取最大的吸血利益。

而金融衍生产品则是不断的增大资产的价格波动的振幅，以方便那些取得了定价权的机构获益

所以，对于西方学界提出的自由化的理论，中国可以用稳定性这个词语来反驳他们

就如同西方提出人权理论以后，中国则提出了生存权发展权是第一人权的概念反唇相讥

这样就一方面照顾了西方的面子，一方面夺得了话语权

制止这帮买办们的蠢行吗？可不可把施大爷的那段有关中国金融管制（不推荐中国开放资金帐户的那段话）链接出处传给能说上话的人看看？弄个以夷治夷？国内搞经济的人太膜拜西方理论的忽悠了。。。

十

又因为中国经济估计是世界上比较少的几个亮点，当然就有更多的热钱进来了。热钱多了，自然自由兑换下的人民币要往上跑了，国内的通货膨胀压力就会大了，而俺们学新自由主义经济学的好学生们，自然要提高利率，象2008年以前那样，控制热钱了。

利率更高了，俺们的企业就更加跑到海外借钱了，然后跑回来的钱就把兑换率推得更高，所以的外汇套息交易也加进来了，于是央行就再提高利率，如此反复，直到崩溃。

其实2008年好多国家，比如说冰岛就是这样给玩死的。冰岛中央银行将基准利率最高的时候，提到了15.5%，和人家日本的接近0%一比，导致了大量外汇套息热钱流了进来。

当然以中国经济规模之大，不是像冰岛那样这么快就被人洗劫干净的。只不过要是中国的大部分企业都参与了不同货币的借贷行为，那么跨货币（Cross-currency）利息风险自然就跟着来了。这一大群中国企业个个都去买货币利息掉期合同，那华尔街金融业就不愁掉期合同交易量不够养家糊口了。

当然，除了这些建基在利息和外汇兑换率的金融衍生品之外，去年的大宗商品衍生品也斩杀了不少实体企业，而在2008年受到打击最大的实体经济是航空业。当石油价格被炒到147美元的高点，为了保证不会用200美元的更高价去买油，许多航空公司，包括中国航空、香港国泰航空、雷诺航空、法国航空和美国西南航空等等，都买了不少对掉合同来保护自己。

结果人家金融业收了这些钱之后，马上让油价来了一个掉头作业，就把国际油价给干到30多美元了。这样的情况下，每家航空公司的损失都是以10亿美元上下计算，给本来就维生艰难的航空业带来更大打击。

为了保证实体企业向银行买这些风险保险，人家的借贷政策就是如果你没有买这些掉期合同的企业，俺就不借钱给你，因为你风险太高。是不是你企业买了这些掉期合同，出了问题你就安全了？不完全是，雷曼兄弟卖了不少掉期合同给人家企业，结果这些企业，纸面上赚的钱，就因为雷曼兄弟倒闭，而美国财政部不救，就全部化为乌有了。

当然如果你不是在雷曼买，而是在AIG买，就没事。可是人家实体企业，怎么知道你美国财政部愿意救AIG而不愿意救雷曼呢？除非人家只买高盛出售的合同，或者那些美国财政部认为不能倒的金融机构，就是那些倒了，会给高盛带来太大损失的机构。

那么如果中国的企业，不想向西方交这笔制度税，就是说，不想靠自己那些来自于中部和西部的农民工，靠辛辛苦苦加班加点赚到的那点钱，用来养活欧洲和美国的金融衍生品集团，应该这么做，才可以最大优化中国自己的国家利益？

其实很简单，如果你进行资本账户管制，不允许中国国内企业到海外的银行进行较低利率的外币融资，就可以令这些企业，避免承担外币的利率风险。当然中国自己中央银行的利率要和世界主要经济的利率大致有可比性，不能将自己的货币变成人家搞不劳而获的套息交易。

而中国的经济发展，也要改变模式，从主要依赖外部资金带动经济发展，变成主要依赖内部资金，吸取外部先进技术和管理经验的模式。

对于外汇兑换率风险，其实就是运用现有的挂靠一个货币篮子的政策，对主要货币之间的每日交易规定一个上下限，并随时利用中国外汇储备的强大，击退前来踢馆子的金融瓦岗寨强盗。

最后就是对中国并不具备国际定价权的大宗商品，如石油和其他重要原材料，应该制定国家计划，以国企为主的超大型主权货币基金，联合主要的利益相关者，对期货市场价格进行有利于国家利益的操作。

对现在中国金融界的某些有影响力的人士来说，如何打破中国金融体系的金刚不坏之身，来一个开门揖盗，为西方金融寄生行业奠定继续繁荣的20年未来，恐怕是他们的毕生理想。这些人对人民币国际化的偷换概念，和他们企图达到的目标，应该令全中国各阶层人民，尤其是实体经济中有影响力的企业界管理阶层们，擦亮双眼。

俺们需要防范的，不光是西方要么心怀叵测的经济砖家，要么是读书把脑袋读成浆糊，呆在象牙塔里面吐象牙的学究，还要注意那些海外中国人经济专家们，批着一张“建立世界一流的中国金融业”的虎皮，打着“打造中国的能够取代纽约和伦敦的国际金融中心”的大旗，干得却是为西方金融业大佬们谋福利的事情。

这样的人，不要以为出生在中国，然后拿了个哈佛大学或者耶鲁大学等等的学位，然后要么在这些学院任教授，要么在某些大投行比如说高盛之流做亚太总裁，就会为中国利益而思考。

要想建立起中国的一流的金融业，就是要立足于这个金融业会怎样更好的服务于中国的实体经济，怎样更好的调节中国实体经济中的资源调配，怎样更好的提供金融服务给中国的创新企业，怎样更好的提供消费金融来推动中国消费的合理成长，怎样发展农村信贷系统，为中国广大农村的城市化和非农业经济发展提供优质的服务。

除了这些对内的服务功能，在对外贸易上，如何帮助中国企业走出海外，建立和其他发展中国家，尤其是东南亚、非洲和南美洲的实体经济外生循环系统，都是很大的课题。

总之要想建立中国自己的国际一流金融体系，答案不是在西方的那些砖家那里，而是在你金融系统要服务的每一个普通的中国人那里。俺还没听说，哈佛大学开设了中国农村金融系统的课程呢。要想知道怎样建立起这个系统，是不是该去问一下，那些潜在的顾客呢？

也许神仙驴和老广也会有独到的见解，这里先一并谢过了。

Wire: BLOOMBERG News (BN) Date: Sep 24 2009 12:01:21

Liu He as China’s Larry Summers Makes Politburo Appreciate U.S.

By Bloomberg News

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Two days after the collapse of

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. a year ago, an adviser sent by

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao met with a group of Harvard

University scholars to help shape his country’s response.

On March 30, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and

National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers separately

made time for the same man, Liu He, on the day the Obama

administration forced the ouster of General Motors Corp. Chief

Executive Officer Rick Wagoner.

Top-level access in Washington and Beijing gives Liu, a 57-

year-old graduate of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, a

pivotal role in the U.S.-China economic relationship. His

mission was to convey American sensibilities on the depth of the

U.S. financial crisis to Wen, said Anthony Saich, a professor at

the Kennedy School who attended the Sept. 17, 2008, meeting in

Cambridge, Massachusetts. It was part of a fact-finding tour

that included stops in New York, Washington and San Francisco.

“He’s a very sophisticated thinker, very analytical,”

said Saich, who said the meeting also included Harvard

economists such as Jeffrey Liebman, now a White House budget

official. “He’s a key person in preparing reports that are not

only going to the premier but also to the general secretary of

the party,” President Hu Jintao.

When Liu returned to Beijing from the September trip, his

report was made available to senior leaders, according to a

person familiar with the situation whose job prevents him from

speaking about Chinese officials publicly.

While it isn’t known what Liu reported, a Chinese response

to the crisis wasn’t long in coming. On Nov. 9, China announced

a 4 trillion-yuan ($586 billion) stimulus, which helped the

economy ride out the worst of the financial turmoil.

‘China’s Larry Summers’

“Liu He is one of only a few Chinese officials who can

speak the language of international finance,” said Cheng Li, a

senior fellow at Washington’s Brookings Institution who met Liu

in March. “He’s China’s Larry Summers.”

Unlike Summers, a frequent guest on U.S. television talk

shows, Liu avoids publicity, operating within a secretive

decision-making apparatus inside the burnt-red walls of

Beijing’s Zhongnanhai leadership compound. At least 10 people

who know him say he is quiet and modest. He turned down four

interview requests for this story.

Liu’s title since 2003 has been deputy director of the

office of the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic

Affairs. Participants include Wen, Vice Premier Wang Qishan and

People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, according to

China experts and non-governmental Web sites.

Pensions and Currency

To generate ideas for the leading group, Liu convenes

meetings of economists, bankers and government officials to hash

out options on everything from pensions to the value of the

yuan, according to a Chinese economist who has participated.

The economist, who asked not to be named because of the

sessions’ sensitive nature, described them as freewheeling and

devoid of ideology.

“They will pick some hotel in a suburb of Beijing, all

these people would show up, and Liu will say ‘We’re interested

in exchange-rate policies, talk,’” said Victor Shih, a

professor at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, and

author of the 2008 book “Factions and Finance in China.”

The leading group makes recommendations to the country’s

cabinet, the full 25-person Politburo or its elite nine-member

standing committee, led by Hu, 66, on whether to pull the

trigger on government policies, the Chinese economist said.

Top Members

Liu, who holds the rank of vice minister, also gathers

ideas from the Chinese Economists 50 Forum, a non-governmental

group he founded in 1998 that parlays academic research into

policy solutions. Members include Zhou and Lou Jiwei, the

chairman of China’s $297.5 billion sovereign wealth fund.

Liu spent much of his career in the State Planning

Commission, the agency that formerly set prices for everything

from bicycles to grain, according to his online biography. It

now writes industrial policy under a new name, the National

Development and Reform Commission.

A former soldier and factory worker who was sent to

Manchuria in the midst of China’s 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution,

Liu helped draft the five-year plans that underpinned China’s

economy. He has been a Communist Party member for more than

three decades, the biography says.

In a chapter from a 2008 book Liu wrote assessing China’s

30 years of economic openness, he praised the “grey area” the

country has found, moving toward a market economy without

“blindly” mimicking Western models.

No Extremes

“Liu’s economic philosophy is pragmatism,” the Brookings

Institution’s Li said. “He will not be obsessed with two

extremes. One is market fundamentalism and the other is the

previous planned economy, which completely failed.”

He has that in common with Summers’s great rival, Joseph

Stiglitz, a Nobel-prize winning economist at New York’s Columbia

University who served as chairman of the Council of Economic

Advisers under President Bill Clinton.

Stiglitz, 66, has praised China for its crisis response,

which focuses on government-funded investment in roads, bridges

and factories. At a May 13 forum in Beijing, Stiglitz said China

“has taken very rapid action to address the crisis” and may

emerge as “a winner.”

After the Cultural Revolution delayed Liu’s education, he

entered Beijing’s People’s University in 1978, earning a

master’s degree in economics, his biography said.

Liu studied management at Seton Hall University in South

Orange, New Jersey, in 1992-1993 and spent the next two years at

Harvard, earning a master’s degree in public administration in

1995, according to school records.

“One got the sense of an individual whose entire resume

had prepared him for his difficult tasks,” said Dennis Wilder,

who until January was Asia director at the White House National

Security Council and met Liu in March. Wilder now is a visiting

fellow at the Brookings Institution.

“He would be an extremely strong player in the game of

bilateral poker: well grounded in the technical issues, non-

polemic, and with an in-depth understanding of the United

States,” Wilder said.

• 请教驴兄一个人名。

这篇文章值得一读。

http://www.tnr.com/article/economy/peking-over-our-shoulder

感觉中国高层的问题不小啊，中宣部的倒行逆施，金融业的国际接鬼。。。

2 枚 通宝已收。通宝推荐已被记录。被推荐帖会以适当的方式被推广